Wednesday, May 20
Statewide: 144 deaths, 3,801 cases, 102,049 tested (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +25)
An article in today’s paper warned of potentially drastic consequences of early re-opening. Its main argument was that the total number of COVID cases in the U.S. is still rising. But it was not clear whether the writer understood the difference between cumulative totals over time and specific conditions at any one particular time. Plus, as we have mentioned earlier, the number of confirmed COVID cases has as much to do with the number of tests processed as it does with the actual number of infections in the population. If our goal is to minimize the number of confirmed cases, the simplest solution would be to stop doing so much testing. (And yes, some of our leaders have already thought of this.) On the other hand, if the goal is to minimize the overall negative effects of the pandemic, there is no simple solution.
Thursday, May 21
Statewide: 145 deaths, 3,817 cases, 105,132 tested (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +16)
Of the 145 deaths in Oregon, 138 (95%) involved victims aged 60 and above. There have been 8 deaths of individuals between the ages of 40 and 59 and no deaths of anyone younger than 40. (These numbers are updated daily at https://govstatus.egov.com/OR-OHA-COVID-19)
E and M got depressed last night from watching their stupid Turkish soap. Learning the truth about his brother has brought Ömer’s worst neuroses to the fore and he was unable to go through with his marriage to Elif, leaving her at the altar in her pretty white dress. We knew this was coming, but we were still sad to see it. What a schmuck.
Friday, May 22
Statewide: 147 deaths, 3,864 cases, 107,745 tested (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +47)
Once again Friday means E fetches French pastries for breakfast and then M goes grocery shopping. In kind of a rut here, but it’s working pretty well. The pain au chocolat was delicious and the store was uncrowded. The selection of fresh fish was better today than it has been in weeks, so something’s changing there. Still no paper towels. Lots of sanitizer.
M is finishing up his feeble attempt to explain why he has watched so much of Black Money Love. Is the world clamoring for such news? Not exactly. But as for the show itself, M and E are the not the only ones watching. M says that the series is or was available on TV in some 30 countries.
Saturday, May 23
Statewide: 147 deaths, 3,888 cases, 110,118 tested (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +24)
Another day with no new deaths reported in Oregon. Tomorrow will be chart day.
Sunday, May 24
Statewide: 148 deaths, 3,927 cases, 112,110 tested (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +39)
Zoom gathering today with two of E’s long-time friends plus the Andees. Not something that would have happened without the pandemic. Beautiful spring day. After dinner, we watched two more episodes of the Turkish show. Must say that our interest is starting to wane. Too long. Too slow. So, back to the pandemic. Good news on that front. Death numbers are down. The Pandemic Diary has been tracking basic Oregon statistics for 60 days now. Here’s a graph that shows the basic data as divided into six 10-day periods. The numbers on the vertical axis are the average number of deaths per day. The period of March 27 to April 5 showed a steep increase in daily deaths. The four periods from April 6 to May 15 show a plateau that tilts down. The most recent period shows a steep decline. What does the future hold? Stay tuned.
The following two charts are not news, but they are interesting given some of the confusion that surrounded such numbers in the early stages of the pandemic. What they show is that an overall increase in the number of tests per day in Oregon has been accompanied by a decrease in the daily percentage of test results that are positive. At the beginning, when testing capacity was lowest, testing was limited to a very high probability population: people who showed clear COVID symptoms and people who were known to have been exposed to confirmed cases, such as family members and health care workers. As testing capacity expanded, the population of people tested started to include a slightly wider circle of people, which included those who may have been exposed to known cases or who showed less definite COVID-like symptoms. Given this expanded circle, it would seem natural to expect a decrease in the percentage of positive results per day as indeed is shown in the second graph. It should be noted that the numbers in these two graphs do not provide any conclusive information about transmissibility of the virus or its prevalence in the general population. They are artifacts of our response to the virus.
