Month: June 2020

Wednesday, June 24

Oregon Health Authority:  deaths 195 (+3)    cases 7,444 (+170)

It has been 90 days now that Pandemic Diary has been tracking the Oregon deaths per day. That means we have a new data point to add to our record of 10-day averages. Here’s what the graph looks like with the new data included. 

Comparisons, says Dogberry in Much Ado, are odorous. So hold your nose and let’s begin. It’s a table of reported COVID19 deaths per 100,000 in various places. Just a snapshot at a point in time; not the final score. Data from Johns Hopkins, as of June 24.

Taiwan	.03
Thailand	.08
Australia	.41
New Zealand	.45
Japan	.76
OREGON	4.5
Denmark	10.40
Germany	10.75
Canada	22.97
United States	37.05
France	44.37
Sweden	50.68
Italy	57.38
Spain	60.62
United Kingdom	64.69

Thursday, June 25

Oregon Health Authority:  deaths 197 (+2)    cases 7,568 (+124)

In the ‘for what it’s worth’ department…The cumulative test positive rate in Oregon since March 30 is 3.5%. It hit a low of 3.19% on June 6, but has been edging upward since then. Here’s a graph.

Friday, June 26

Oregon Health Authority:  deaths 201 (+4)    cases 7,817 (+249)

We were talking today about the first time we ever saw people wearing masks to cover their mouths and noses. Both of us had seen it first in Japan, M when he lived there in the early 1980’s and E later in the 80’s when she travelled there on business. We both remember thinking it was weird. We knew why people were doing it; they were ill and they didn’t want to spread their illness to others. We knew that Japan was a crowded place, the kind of place where airborne illnesses were easily transmittable. And we were learning about how Japanese culture had a system of group loyalties that Americans didn’t have. It all made sense. And yet, both of us had negative reactions to masks. E thinks that it’s because she had learned that being sick was a sign of weakness. It was something shameful; you certainly didn’t want to announce it to the world. M remembers that too, and he also remembers not wanting to stand out for any reason. He already felt different enough. He says he doesn’t remember if he ever got a cold or the flu while he lived in Japan, but he knows he never wore a mask.

Saturday, June 27

Oregon Health Authority:  deaths 202 (+1)    cases 8,094 (+277)

We sent to a social gathering today. It was held in the back yard of a friend of ours. Guests went directly to the back around the left side of the house. First there was a small table with hand sanitizer and a selection of very clean and rather attractive masks. Farther around in the back there were more supplies: face shields for every guest, along with a name tag that could affixed to them at the top. Here is a reconstruction of part of that scene.

We had a nice time. M ran into a man who used to run an audio business in Corvallis for many years and from whom M had bought some B&W speakers in 1992. The two guys didn’t exactly remember each other, but they both remembered the speakers. 

We ran into another person, a highway engineer, who reported hearing that the number of cell phone accounts in China fell by approximately 21 million during the height of the pandemic there. There is speculation is that the owners of those numbers may simply have died of the virus. Well, maybe, but the Pandemic Diary is unconvinced. We’re okay with the idea that China has vastly underreported its COVID deaths. Of course it has. That’s how Asia works. But this idea of using phone account data to measure deaths just makes me remember H. L. Mencken: “For every complex problem there is a solution that is concise, clear, simple, and wrong.”

Sunday, June 28

Oregon Health Authority:  deaths 202 (+0)    cases 8,341 (+245)

Things went all to hell in yesterday’s episode of Kördügüm, our latest Turkish soap opera. Ali Nejat got arrested for murder. He was torn from the arms of his pre-school aged son Kaan and dragged off to jail, with Kaan screaming and carrying on the whole time. Ali Nejat is being framed but by whom? He doesn’t seem to know, but we the audience have gotten hints that the one behind it all might be Enver, his scheming ex brother-in-law. Little Kaan, who recently lost his mother to suicide and has just discovered that he has a father, was so upset by all this that the family called in pediatrician Naz–a family friend who just has a way with kids and seems to really love Kaan. But then again, who doesn’t love Kaan, who is a cute little guy with a big role in this soap and who is played by one hell of a child actor. Naz decided to take Kaan for a drive in the country to calm him down. Unfortunately, that’s just when Kenan’s henchman made their move to kidnap Naz as part of their boss’s plan to get back at her husband Umut–who she happens to be separated from, but Kenan doesn’t know that or care. So the kidnappers got both Naz and Kaan. Yikes. Ali Nejat was going crazy stuck in jail with his son missing. Every character in the show was totally freaked out, except for Umut’s sister Göckçe’s boyfriend Emre, who drives a white Porsche Panamera and who managed to pass his final exam in clothing design by embroidering a beautiful sweater that he then gave as a present to Göckçe after his professor had approved it. So that was good, we guess, but everything else was pretty tense. 

In Sunday’s episode, the situation improved. Ali Nejat got out on bail and the police came up with a clue as to where Kenan’s hideout might be. Ali Nejat’s faithful driver Ibrahim then used his contacts in the police department to learn where that was, at which point Ali Nejat raced off to the rescue in his rugged Mercedes G-Class. Umut, meanwhile, had already found the hideout. After arriving there in his white sedan, he went up to the house. Then, because he is a complete idiot, he was knocked unconscious and tied up. By the time he woke up and escaped from his bonds, the bad guys had already fled in their Jeep taking Naz and Kaan with them. Umut immediately ran to his car, a black SUV, and set out after them. When he caught up with them Ali Nejat had already blocked their escape and the police were on the way. Soon it was all over and Ali Nejat, Kaan and Naz were huddled in a three way embrace. The only question remaining was how Umut’s car had managed to change both color and shape while he was tied up. We saw this kind of thing in Black Money Love too; apparently it’s just something that happens in Turkey.

Monday, June 15

Statewide: 180 deaths, 5,820 cases, 175,941 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +184)

Yikes, 184 new cases from only 1,879 tests, and a new record positive rate of 9.79%. A large chunk of the new cases (99) are from Union County, a mostly rural area in the northeast corner of the state. The total population of the county is about 27,000. They are now reporting a total of 121 confirmed cases with no reported deaths.  

Tuesday, June 16

Statewide: 182 deaths, 6,098 cases, 179,337 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +278)

Another day with lots of new cases, 278 positives out of 3,396 tests, a positive rate of 8.19%. The total includes another 119 new cases from Union County. This brings the county’s overall case total to 240, which is roughly 0.9% of its population. They report five hospitalizations and no deaths.

Wednesday, June 17

Statewide: 183 deaths, 6,218 cases, 184,139 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +120)

There is more news today about the large number of new COVID cases in rural Union County, which is now 242. Most of the new cases are associated with the congregation of the Lighthouse United Pentecostal Church, located in Island City, just east of La Grande. This is hot news and has been featured in any number of national media outlets. 

The most detailed accounts that I have found are one from Oregon Public Broadcasting and one from KPTV Fox 12 Oregon. Both organizations are based in Portland. It’s interesting to compare the two stories. 

OPB announces the events by quoting a deputy epidemiologist in the state health department, who names the church involved and states that 365 church members have been tested with 236 of those testing positive. The state official is also quoted as saying that “the primary transmission likely occurred between church members and not as part of broader community spread.”  The article then includes this one-sentence paragraph: “Local public health officials have offered a somewhat different explanation, downplaying the role of the church in the transmission of cases.” No local public health officials are identified or quoted. Instead, the article moves on immediately to reports that the local newspaper, the La Grande Observer, had published an earlier article saying that Lighthouse had begun in-person services in April and May despite the statewide ban, and that videos posted to the church’s Facebook page showed congregants standing close together without masks, singing and praying. The videos have since been removed. The article then again quotes the state epidemiologist as saying that the people infected by the virus range from children to elderly and include people with “a relatively diverse group of racial and ethnic backgrounds.” They mention that five people have been hospitalized for COVID in the county. Next they include a number of remarks from another named official, the mayor of La Grande. He says that many in the area, himself included, had been feeling fairly sure that their area would not be seriously affected. Now, however, he sees serious cause for concern and urges people in the county to put politics aside and come together to try to limit the spread of the virus. The article then mentions that just before the outbreak two unnamed Union County commissioners had attended a meeting of other rural county commissioners interested in fighting the closures ordered by Gov. Kate Brown. It concludes by noting that that two “OHA staffers” have been sent to La Grande to assist with the response and eight other state workers had been assigned to assist with tracking.

The Fox Story begins by saying that OHA has reported a large outbreak of new cases in Union County and that OHA has attributed “a bunch” of the new cases to Lighthouse United Pentecostal Church in La Grande. Fox then moves directly to an interview with an unnamed member of the church congregation. She says that the church opened back up late last month after the President deemed churches to be essential. She says that the church had guidelines for the 300 members that attend. “They had a hand-washing station outside the door before you came in. People wore masks, or they should’ve. They tried to social distance.” The article then mentions that a video on the church’s Facebook page shows a large group of churchgoers not social distancing. They then again quote the unnamed member who says, “I thought it was wrong. That’s why I didn’t go. I couldn’t see how. It’s a big sanctuary but there’s a lot of people and I didn’t see how people were going to be able to social distance.” She ended by saying that she was praying for everyone to get better and that not all the new cases should be attributed to the church and she doesn’t want the Lighthouse to take on all the blame. The Fox article then moves to an interview with an unnamed Union County Commissioner, who says that the La Grande Hospital has done a good job preparing and has the ability to handle the situation. He also mentions that Lighthouse had previously been contacted by law enforcement and “had been warned.” In the last sentence of the article, they change tack and give the commissioner’s name. 

The OPB report contains more hard information from OHA as well as a meaningful and seemingly honest narrative by the mayor who describes a place where people basically scoffed at the virus, right up to when it truly arrived. They also quote the local paper to point out that the church had been known to be violating restrictions for quite some time. They include useful context such as the number of current hospitalizations and they provide the ironical note about the two commissioners who had been trying to find ways to end those needless state mandated restrictions. It ends by noting that the state has devoted resources specifically to aid in a response to this breakout.  

I should note that the Fox article came out earlier than the OPB report, which means that the OPB writers may have had the advantage of more complete statistics. For whatever reason, the Fox report is built mostly around the interview with the unnamed church member, who provides an inside view of things. Their source is an interested party and expresses only her personal views. We can sense her struggles with how much she wants to reveal and how she wants to be perceived. At one point she seems tempted to whitewash a little, but just then the Fox journalist seems to have mentioned the now deleted video tapes. The details she provides are important, as is her reasoning and the fact that she decided to stop attending services when she saw how things were going. This inside view helps me imagine the events as they unfolded and maybe to understand them a little better. The article ends with two points that OPB omitted, first that the hospital has been ramping up, preparing for just such an eventuality, and second that the church was previously warned by law enforcement. 

The differences in these article were illuminating. The bulk of the OPB article was a platform for reporting official numbers and for communicating what government officials had said in prepared statements. The state health official gave information from his area of expertise and the mayor did the same from his. The result was an overview of the situation by means of an organized collection of numbers and generalities. The Fox article did not question or disparage expertise and clearly accepted the basic facts as presented by the Oregon Health Authority. But it did not focus on numbers, expertise or prepared statements. Instead the writers were after the more human aspects. The congregant’s story takes us out of the realm of statistics and into the world of real people, a very different place. We need to keep that place in mind, I think, just as much as we need accurate statistics. It is a shame, of course, that mostly we all see one or another of these visions, but not both.

Thursday, June 18

Statewide: 187 deaths, 6,366 cases, 188,910 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +148)

Two more days with lots of new cases, but also lots of testing. The daily percent positive numbers are back to normal: Wednesday 2.50%, Thursday 3.10%. The news from Union County is that the county commissioners have recommended that the county roll back from following Stage 2 opening guidelines and return to the more restrictive Stage 1 guidelines. They are also urging all citizens to wear masks.

Busy day for M and E today, prepping for M’s dental surgery tomorrow. We did our weekly shopping at the Co-op; then M went to Fred Meyer for basic soft food supplies: pudding cups, reasonably normal yogurt, plus a few odds and ends. M had first looked at the yogurt brands at the Co-op, but had finally had to turn away, helpless before an unbearable onslaught of twee.

Then it was on to mowing the back lawn and a bit of watering. Yes, it’s turned hot again and the berries need water. After dinner we picked raspberries which are just now coming on. This was followed by a delayed dessert of strawberries and ice cream. Before bed we watched a bit of our new Turkish series. It’s called Intersection and it’s very different from our last one. On the one hand, it’s kinda slow. On the other, there are only 13 episodes in the first season.  

Friday, June 19

Statewide: 188 deaths, 6,344 cases, 193,689 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +206)

Only 1 new death reported today, but lots of new cases. The day’s positive rate was 4.31%. 

We recently got to see how dental offices have adapted for the pandemic when E went for a cleaning and M went for his implant. As instructed we wore masks to both places. At E’s place, the first order of business was having her temperature taken at the door. Inside, there was a sad lack of amenities in the waiting room: no coffee machine, no iPad, no toys, and, worst of all, no cupcakes! (Yikers, you exclaim, are there really dentists who give away cupcakes? Well yes, Pandemic Diary can report that there used to be at least one. Trust Eve to have found him.) The good doctor reports that when they re-opened the practice, he was expecting a rush of deferred cleanings. What he had not expected was the surge in stress fractures and chipped teeth, some of which may have been related to tooth grinding. All treatment room staff were double masked and face shielded. 

E accompanied M to his surgery appointment because a caregiver was required. At that office, the first priority was to make the final installment of the prepayment. (Those who suggest that after the pandemic nothing will ever be the same are exaggerating.) The pandemic adaptations came next. We both had to fill out a COVID survey form. A new ballpoint was provided for each of us and we were told we could keep the pens or discard them in the wastebasket when we were done. We then sat in the waiting room for a bit. No magazines or any other amusements, but there was a sign announcing free wi-fi. When M was called, they did a forehead temperature check in the hallway between the waiting room and the treatment room. M passed the test. E was supposed to wait for him for the entire time, roughly an hour and a half. But the rule was that she could either stay in the waiting room or go out and sit in her car. Requiring her to stay the whole time seemed excessive, especially since our house is only five minutes away, but this doctor is like that. At the same time, requiring her to stay in the smallish waiting room would endanger her health and that of others. Being the way he is, the boss couldn’t ignore that either, hence the wait in the car option.

The result was a de facto compromise. Eve went out and got in her car, waited for a bit and then drove home, where she stayed a while and then returned. After a bit a dental staffer came out, found her car, and let her know that the procedure was about three fourths done. E appreciated getting this update, though she realized later than the primary purpose for the visit to her car was simply to make sure she was around. Eventually, someone came out again to call her in to meet M in the recovery room. Later in the day, E went over to the Burgerville drive-through and got M a chocolate shake. He says that he is now pretty certain that the marriage was not a mistake. 

Saturday, June 20

Statewide: 189 deaths, 6750 cases, 198,936 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +178)

Short nights and long days here, of course, as the solstice approaches. The predawn light arrives around 4:30 and in the evening we’re both getting tired well before it gets dark. While waiting for the dark, we’ve been watching our new Turkish series on Netflix. It’s called Intersection (Kördügüm) and it is both similar and different to Black Money Love. Both series feature evil patriarchs with rebellious sons, older sisters with mental issues, college aged daughters who fight with their mothers, traitorous woman friends, and quite a few hospital scenes. Both have gun violence too, but whereas BML started off with a double murder, Intersection began with a suicide and then made us wait for more than five hours to see the next shooting and that was a paltry nonlethal wound in the abdomen. The costume design in Intersection is not as interesting as in BML although we have to admit that Didem was dressed to the nines for her suicide scene at Ali Nejat’s birthday party in the ballroom of the swank hotel. Other differences are that no one in Intersection is a police officer, no one is engaged in organ trafficking (so far) and no one has opened a bookstore. Instead, one of the main Intersection characters, Naz, is a brilliant head of pediatrics who is always saving kids from mysterious conditions that no one else can diagnose. She herself is childless. Having lost a baby once before, she is reluctant to try again, which is causing a rift with her husband, Umut, who is sort of nice but who has some weird issues to go along with his big dreams…

Monday, June 8

Statewide: 164 deaths, 4,922 cases, 149,732 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +84)

On Sunday, when we joined the Black Lives Matter demonstrators and felt the energy of the large crowd, it was clear that decency and the capacity for outrage over injustice are still alive in our town, as they seem to be in so many other parts of the world. It’s good to be reminded that goodness never dies. Alas that evil never dies either. We have gone through this before.

In the unreal world of Black Money Love, the main plot is winding down and as it does things are turning dark. Ömer is finding ways to smite the great evil, but he is losing his belief in his own innocence and getting a peek at the less admirable side of his own motives. Elif sees it and we in the audience see it also. We are disappointed in him. We have only four more episodes; we’ll have to see what the writers can do.

Tuesday, June 9

Statewide: 169 deaths, 4,988 cases, 153,470 tested  (Deaths: +5) (Cases: +66)

An old-fashioned June day in Oregon, cool and cloudy with intermittent showers, the kind of day we had before global warming. Thirty or forty years ago, we wore sweaters and rain jackets in June and complained of the damp and the cold. It was hard to believe back then that June meant summer in most of the country, that we’d need sunglasses and shorts if we travelled anywhere. 

Here in 2020, we had planned a trip over to the coast to stay at a hotel on the beach at Newport. Alas, there has been an outbreak at a seafood plant there and the hotel is reducing services for a few days, so we’ve decided to cancel.

Wednesday, June 10

Statewide: 169 deaths, 5,060 cases, 156,605 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +72)

We had tertulia with J and R today, and for the first time in months we met at an actual coffee shop. We sat outside on the terrace under overcast skies and braved a few drops of rain. Very nice. Later on E and M went downtown and picked up a necklace or two for E and then got take-out lunch from the Vietnamese Baguette. We ate on a bench on the riverfront.

Thursday, June 11

Statewide: 171 deaths, 5,237 cases, 161,643 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +177)

According to the  Oregon Health Authority, yesterday was a record day for testing (5,038) and also for new cases confirmed (177). The percentage of tests that came out positive was 3.51%, slightly above the long term average for this number, which is 3.24%.

Which goes on longer, a seemingly interminable pandemic or a seemingly interminable Turkish TV series? Well, it appears that the pandemic wins because for us the latter has ended. Last night we watched the final episode of Kara Para Aşk, a.k.a. Black Money Love. Episode #164 went for 55 minutes instead of the usual 45; they had a lot to wind up. Ömer and Elif had split up after the death of Tayyar when Elif demanded that Ömer leave the police force. But after three months, Ömer came his senses and they were married in a lovely ceremony by the sea. Now they are planning to open a bookstore. Yes, I know. That’s insane. Never mind. Previously, Hüseyin partially redeemed himself by taking a bullet meant for Ömer. He is now paralyzed and has been released from prison into the care of his family. Melike and Elvan have solved their money problems by opening a day care center. Venal Fatma went too far even for saintly Elvan and has been thrown out. Demet and Mert are officially engaged. Pelin and Arda are married. Having adopted İpek’s little boy, Yağız, they are also expecting a child of their own. Elif’s sister Aslı has married Ege, who seemed for a time to be Elif’s new boyfriend.

That leaves only Nilüfer and Fatih. Fatih has escaped from prison, but is now broke and in hiding. Nilüfer is with him. He’s been very good lately and seems to adore being with her and planning for the birth of their child. He hasn’t shot anyone in the last few days and in fact the last person he killed was purely in self defense, back when Tayyar sent an assassin into the prison to kill him. Fatih has done a lot of bad things in his life, but he’s trying hard to be better. Nilüfer really loves him and he loves her. So, what to do, what to do? Have him die in a shoot-out? Spend life in prison? Escape from Turkey and make a new life financed by his ill-gotten gains? None of these are quite right. He needs to suffer, but he also needs to have some chance for eventual happiness. So the writers had to think carefully. As always, their ability to blissfully ignore the demands of plausibility came in handy in what they finally came up with. But we didn’t really mind. Even though the superficial sloppiness of BML drove us both crazy, we know the difference between a story and a report. It has been argued by serious scholars that there’s nothing very plausible about King Lear either. 

Just to clear the air, though, let’s now leave off both pandemic and pandemic pass times.  Here’s what the lilies have to say. 

Friday, June 12

Statewide: 173 deaths, 5,377 cases, 166,019 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +140)

Another day similar to yesterday: a relatively high number of tests processed (4,376) and a high number of new cases confirmed (140). The percentage of tests that came out positive was 3.20%, which is again very close to the long term average, which remains at 3.24%. So, more testing yields more positives, just as it should at this point. We might also consider OHA’s claim that recent testing has been focused away from the “worried well” and more toward individuals that are known to have been exposed. To the extent that this is the case, the percent positive rate should actually be going up because we are doing a better job of zeroing in on people who are infected. In light of this, maybe the unchanged percent positive rate should be considered good news? Never mind, the simple existence of these higher than usual case numbers freaks everybody out, for understandable reasons. Oregon’s governor has announced a one-week “pause” in the state’s reopening process.  

Saturday, June 13

Statewide: 174 deaths, 5,535 cases, 170,479 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +158)

A third straight day with high testing numbers (4,460) and high new case totals (158). The daily test positive rate was 3.54%, a little above the overall test positive rate, which is now 3.25%.

A quiet day here on Oak Avenue, cool and wet. For breakfast we had fresh strawberries from our rather pitiful little patch. Not an abundant crop, but tasty. E did some gardening despite the rain. M finished painting the wall where the ironing board didn’t go and did a little caulking in our decrepit main bathroom. For dinner we had take-out from Koriander, a Korean fusion restaurant that we’d been missing. Delicious job chae with sweet potato noodles. 

We are missing our friends Elif, Ömer and the gang. They were quite real to us while we were watching, and now they’ve all gone away. The actors who portrayed them have turned back into actors. We miss their passions, their reckless energy, their emotional boneheadedness and the insane coincidences in which they were constantly involved. Our real friends and family members cannot quite fill this void…

Sunday, June 14

Statewide: 176 deaths, 5,636 cases, 174,062 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +101)

A moderately high number of tests (3,583) combined with a lowish percent positive (2.82%) equals a moderate increase in cases. From very early on in this morass, it seemed to me that all numbers regarding the virus were dubious, with too much variation in reporting, too many assumptions, too much distortion, too much ignorance, too many unknowns, and never enough context. The number that seemed best, back then, was the simplest one–the death toll. That too is imperfect, but it still has more significance than any other. The official Oregon death toll is now 176, or 4 per 100,000 of population. To visualize the distribution of those deaths over time, I’ve been making a graph of 10-day averages. Since I’ve been keeping records for 80 days now, it’s time to add an eighth data point to that graph. As shown below, the rate in the most recent period was 1.7, while that of the previous two periods was 1.1.

Sunday, May 31

Statewide: 153 deaths, 4,243 cases, 129,093 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +58)

Nice quiet Sunday. In the morning E organized a Zoom call with her siblings. Later on, M helped E with her photo album project. She plans to empty a number of old albums, pick out 600 or so pics for scanning, and then discard the remains. E has done this before. The actual scanning is done in the Philippines. She says that the whole process goes pretty well, because even if you forget where you put the CD that they sent you, it’ll turn up eventually. 

In case anyone is wondering, Elif is in jail again and will soon go on trial for the murder of the man who killed her father 128 episodes ago. She remembers nothing of what happened during time that the murder occurred. She was found near the supposed crime scene in a dazed stupor,  the murder weapon in her hand. The prison psychiatrist, who is in the pay of her enemies, is trying to convince her to accept the fact that she did the deed. Her enemies believe that this will cause her to either commit suicide or give a false confession, either of which would give them unbridled joy. So far this seems to be working. It is sad to see her so downcast, especially since we the audience know that the man she is supposed to have murdered isn’t even dead. Did I mention the hatchet that Fatih was holding behind his back? Well…that too. 

Monday, June 1

Statewide: 154 deaths, 4,302 cases, 131,508 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +59)

We mentioned the lowish COVID death toll reported from Denmark, which was 9.8 per 100,000. But what about Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam? All these countries are reporting fewer than 1 death per 100,000. Why? There are many possible factors, and the explanations might not be the same for all of these six. And of course there is the issue that we have no way of verifying the accuracy of the numbers, theirs or anyone else’s.

We suspect, though, that preparedness, quick action and competence may have contributed something. We are being told that Vietnam began testing all incoming travelers from Wuhan as soon as it was announced that the virus existed. When they found their first case, they cancelled all flights from Wuhan. The next day they cancelled all flights from China. As they found more cases, they began tracing and testing everyone that infected persons had been in contact with. There was no general lockdown, but any area with more than a few cases went under local lockdown. Last time I checked, they were reporting thousands of cases but zero deaths. 

Tuesday, June 2

Statewide: 157 deaths, 4,335 cases, 134,094 tested  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +33)

Just another pandemic day. E did her Zoom exercise class in the morning and a bunch of garden chores. M puttered around outside and then took the Porsche out for a ride. The weather was just warm enough to put the top down. It was M’s night to cook, with store-bought samosas and home-made roasted vegetables on the menu. Also gin.

Wednesday, June 3

Statewide: 159 deaths, 4,399 cases, 136,450 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +64)

We learned today that Representative Steve King, a Republican from Ohio, will be leaving office after losing to a Republican challenger in the primary election. King has long been the most blatantly racist member of the U.S. Congress. He has enjoyed the warm support and approval of the President, but last year his fellow Republicans in the House turned on him, stripping him of all committee assignments.

Around here it has been another day of garden chores in the morning followed by photo album teardown work in the afternoon. We are still mulling a trip over to the Oregon coast but have made no concrete efforts in that direction.

Things are moving along nicely in our Turkish soap, of which we have now seen an astonishing 149 episodes. Elif is in the hospital after being stabbed while in prison awaiting the final disposition of the murder charge against her. She ran afoul of another inmate and was “shanked,” as the subtitles put it, in the prison bathroom. “How is she doing?” you ask. How do you think she’s doing? Please choose from among the following: (A) She was pregnant and the doctor couldn’t save the baby, (B) She is hovering on the edge of death and it could go either way, (C) She is conscious but no longer recognizes Ömer, (D) She has been declared dead, but the decision may be reversed when Ömer demands to see the surveillance tapes. The correct answers are (A) and (B). But if you chose either of the others, I’d say you haven’t done badly. You could probably get a job writing for shows like this. 

Thursday, June 4

Statewide: 159 deaths, 4,474 cases, 139,188 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +75)

Pandemic Diary has been tracking the Oregon situation for 70 days now, which means that it’s time for a chart update. As it happens, the average number of deaths per day for the latest 10-day period is the same as for the previous 10-day period.

We went into the forest today and walked up the Baker Creek Trail off Sulphur Springs Rd. Due to logging activity, the east end of our usual loop was blocked off. We walked the west side of the loop, up Rd 800 and then down into the swale. What a lovely place–green, moist and unimproved. Lots of ancient trees, mostly fir and maples. Retraced our steps to return. Then it was lunchtime so we decided to head back to town and try the Burgerville drive-up. When we got there, there was a huge line of cars. We went over to try La Rockita. They have no drive-up, just two separate doors at the front of the shop, one for ordering and one for picking up. It seemed uncrowded, so we went for it. But appearances can be deceiving. There were lots and lots of online and phone orders ahead of us. We learned that it’s not smart to just show up at the order window and order. We’ll know better next time, of course, and go online. But one does get tired of always having to be organized. Still, we got our tacos and ate them in our back yard. They were delicious.

Friday, June 5

Statewide: 161 deaths, 4,570 cases, 143,118 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +96)

Last night we watched episodes 150 and 151 of Black Money Love. Elif has come out of her coma and seems mostly recovered–at least physically–from her experience. This comes just in time for her to return to court for the final disposition of her case. She has been expertly framed and it seems that all is lost. Ömer, Arda and Pelin are certain that Hüseyin, the man she is supposed to have killed, is still alive, this despite the DNA results from the charred lower leg that was found after the terrible fire at the crime scene. Alas, they have not been able to track Hüseyin down and the judge has refused to delay the sentencing. As it happens though, it is Mert’s college graduation day and he stops by the hospital to thank Elif for all her kindness to him. With Elif’s help, young Mert has turned himself around from worthless playboy to serious student and now proud graduate. Putting aside her troubles for the moment, Elif takes time to congratulate him. A little later, just hours from the judgment that will settle her fate, she mentions Mert’s visit to Ömer. This seemingly inconsequential piece of information gives him an idea, a last chance to save Elif from life in prison. He rushes off. Elif is eventually transferred under guard from the hospital to the courtroom. During some preliminary discussions, the judge makes it clear that the preponderance of evidence still points to her guilt. Just as he begins the official reading of the verdict and the resulting sentence, Ömer pushes through the door at the back of the courtroom and calls out for him to stop. The alleged murder victim, he says, is still alive. The judge looks angrily at him. Ömer turns his head back toward the door and Hüseyin slowly comes in. He is limping due to a new prosthetic on his right leg from the knee down. After hearing his statement, the judge announces an acquittal and tells Elif she is free to go. Great stuff. The idea that Elif’s past kindness to Mert helps to save her is a nice touch. That and the leg thing. And now just 13 more episodes…

Today the Oregon Health Authority is reporting a relatively high number of new confirmed cases–96 in the last 24 hours. But they also report a high number of tests processed during that period, nearly 4,000. The media often report “spikes” in the numbers of new confirmed cases, but very often this means simply that we are getting better at finding cases. At this point it is not a good indicator of how much of the total population is infected or of how serious the virus is. The only data we have for that are the number of hospitalizations and the number of deaths.

Here at the Pandemic Diary, we also track the daily ratio of positive tests to total tests. This would be a really interesting number if the people being tested were selected at random from the population. This very much not the case, of course, as testing efforts need to be focused on certain groups. So the ratio doesn’t say very much about the prevalence or seriousness of the virus. Still, we like this statistic because it’s easy to calculate and makes for a cute graph. At this point the ratio of positives continues to decline gently as the number of tests per day trends flat or slowly up. 

Saturday, June 6

Statewide: 163 deaths, 145,322 cases (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +93)

And here it is–our local paper reporting this morning about Friday’s increase in the number of cases confirmed. 

The headline is problematic for the usual reasons. The article itself gives the context, suggesting that the increase comes from a larger than usual number of tests and from more diligent contact tracing. But some people will not read beyond the headline and might thus conclude that the sky is falling. Some others, who do read the article, will note the reasons given but assume that they are merely excuses manufactured by the state authorities in a vain attempt to cover up their own inability to deal with a worsening problem. It is difficult for anyone to read the phrase “a spike in confirmed cases” without getting the sense that the whole situation is, in fact, getting worse. But also, of course, some readers have already decided that the pandemic has been wildly overblown by public officials, pharmaceutical companies, and a complicit media establishment. These folks will see this as just another attempt to sow panic in order to justify continued assaults on our basic rights as citizens. I don’t have any answers here, but I’ve been thinking of some alternative headlines anyway. How about “Latest COVID Case Stats Show Results of Better Testing Focus”? That should bore everybody.

In other news, the Washington Post reports that in Europe many officials are now wondering if school closures were really necessary, pointing to a number of countries where schools reopened early without negative consequences. Lastly, Reuters reports from Florida that drive-through Botox treatments are once again available.

Sunday, June 7

Statewide: 164 deaths,  147,528 cases (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +146)

The new case count includes 65 cases at a seafood processing plant.

Demonstrations in support of Black Lives Matter have been taking place worldwide. We went to one in Corvallis today. There were a few boomers but mostly younger people. Pretty much everyone wore a mask.

The paper says the crowd numbered 4,000, which seems a little high to me. Still, it was heartening, very much so.

We are coming to the end of our Turkish soap–just seven more episodes to go. But action continues unabated. After a brief interlude in which she was kidnapped (again!) and locked into a puzzle house where she almost died of poison gas, Elif is once again free and reunited with Ömer. And the mega-evil Tayyar is in jail! But wait, where is Nilüfer, Elif’s younger sister, she who is pregnant by soulful psycho-man Fatih? The reason she hasn’t been heard from is that some of Tayyar’s henchmen are holding her and plan to bury her in wet concrete if Tayyar is not sprung from jail and allowed to flee the country. Fatih can’t help her because he’s also in jail, along with Hüseyin. Once again it will be up to Ömer, Elif, Arda and Pelin to somehow resolve this crisis. Sadly, their colleague İpek has died in a gunfight with some of the evil Nedret’s henchmen. She shot all four of the bad guys who tried to kill her, but was fatally wounded in the process. Once, long ago, İpek and Ömer were sweethearts. No one has yet had the heart to tell him of her demise. She is survived by her young son, Yağız, who could almost have been Ömer’s child, but wasn’t.