Sunday, May 31
Statewide: 153 deaths, 4,243 cases, 129,093 tested (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +58)
Nice quiet Sunday. In the morning E organized a Zoom call with her siblings. Later on, M helped E with her photo album project. She plans to empty a number of old albums, pick out 600 or so pics for scanning, and then discard the remains. E has done this before. The actual scanning is done in the Philippines. She says that the whole process goes pretty well, because even if you forget where you put the CD that they sent you, it’ll turn up eventually.
In case anyone is wondering, Elif is in jail again and will soon go on trial for the murder of the man who killed her father 128 episodes ago. She remembers nothing of what happened during time that the murder occurred. She was found near the supposed crime scene in a dazed stupor, the murder weapon in her hand. The prison psychiatrist, who is in the pay of her enemies, is trying to convince her to accept the fact that she did the deed. Her enemies believe that this will cause her to either commit suicide or give a false confession, either of which would give them unbridled joy. So far this seems to be working. It is sad to see her so downcast, especially since we the audience know that the man she is supposed to have murdered isn’t even dead. Did I mention the hatchet that Fatih was holding behind his back? Well…that too.
Monday, June 1
Statewide: 154 deaths, 4,302 cases, 131,508 tested (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +59)
We mentioned the lowish COVID death toll reported from Denmark, which was 9.8 per 100,000. But what about Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam? All these countries are reporting fewer than 1 death per 100,000. Why? There are many possible factors, and the explanations might not be the same for all of these six. And of course there is the issue that we have no way of verifying the accuracy of the numbers, theirs or anyone else’s.
We suspect, though, that preparedness, quick action and competence may have contributed something. We are being told that Vietnam began testing all incoming travelers from Wuhan as soon as it was announced that the virus existed. When they found their first case, they cancelled all flights from Wuhan. The next day they cancelled all flights from China. As they found more cases, they began tracing and testing everyone that infected persons had been in contact with. There was no general lockdown, but any area with more than a few cases went under local lockdown. Last time I checked, they were reporting thousands of cases but zero deaths.
Tuesday, June 2
Statewide: 157 deaths, 4,335 cases, 134,094 tested (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +33)
Just another pandemic day. E did her Zoom exercise class in the morning and a bunch of garden chores. M puttered around outside and then took the Porsche out for a ride. The weather was just warm enough to put the top down. It was M’s night to cook, with store-bought samosas and home-made roasted vegetables on the menu. Also gin.
Wednesday, June 3
Statewide: 159 deaths, 4,399 cases, 136,450 tested (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +64)
We learned today that Representative Steve King, a Republican from Ohio, will be leaving office after losing to a Republican challenger in the primary election. King has long been the most blatantly racist member of the U.S. Congress. He has enjoyed the warm support and approval of the President, but last year his fellow Republicans in the House turned on him, stripping him of all committee assignments.
Around here it has been another day of garden chores in the morning followed by photo album teardown work in the afternoon. We are still mulling a trip over to the Oregon coast but have made no concrete efforts in that direction.
Things are moving along nicely in our Turkish soap, of which we have now seen an astonishing 149 episodes. Elif is in the hospital after being stabbed while in prison awaiting the final disposition of the murder charge against her. She ran afoul of another inmate and was “shanked,” as the subtitles put it, in the prison bathroom. “How is she doing?” you ask. How do you think she’s doing? Please choose from among the following: (A) She was pregnant and the doctor couldn’t save the baby, (B) She is hovering on the edge of death and it could go either way, (C) She is conscious but no longer recognizes Ömer, (D) She has been declared dead, but the decision may be reversed when Ömer demands to see the surveillance tapes. The correct answers are (A) and (B). But if you chose either of the others, I’d say you haven’t done badly. You could probably get a job writing for shows like this.
Thursday, June 4
Statewide: 159 deaths, 4,474 cases, 139,188 tested (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +75)
Pandemic Diary has been tracking the Oregon situation for 70 days now, which means that it’s time for a chart update. As it happens, the average number of deaths per day for the latest 10-day period is the same as for the previous 10-day period.
We went into the forest today and walked up the Baker Creek Trail off Sulphur Springs Rd. Due to logging activity, the east end of our usual loop was blocked off. We walked the west side of the loop, up Rd 800 and then down into the swale. What a lovely place–green, moist and unimproved. Lots of ancient trees, mostly fir and maples. Retraced our steps to return. Then it was lunchtime so we decided to head back to town and try the Burgerville drive-up. When we got there, there was a huge line of cars. We went over to try La Rockita. They have no drive-up, just two separate doors at the front of the shop, one for ordering and one for picking up. It seemed uncrowded, so we went for it. But appearances can be deceiving. There were lots and lots of online and phone orders ahead of us. We learned that it’s not smart to just show up at the order window and order. We’ll know better next time, of course, and go online. But one does get tired of always having to be organized. Still, we got our tacos and ate them in our back yard. They were delicious.
Friday, June 5
Statewide: 161 deaths, 4,570 cases, 143,118 tested (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +96)
Last night we watched episodes 150 and 151 of Black Money Love. Elif has come out of her coma and seems mostly recovered–at least physically–from her experience. This comes just in time for her to return to court for the final disposition of her case. She has been expertly framed and it seems that all is lost. Ömer, Arda and Pelin are certain that Hüseyin, the man she is supposed to have killed, is still alive, this despite the DNA results from the charred lower leg that was found after the terrible fire at the crime scene. Alas, they have not been able to track Hüseyin down and the judge has refused to delay the sentencing. As it happens though, it is Mert’s college graduation day and he stops by the hospital to thank Elif for all her kindness to him. With Elif’s help, young Mert has turned himself around from worthless playboy to serious student and now proud graduate. Putting aside her troubles for the moment, Elif takes time to congratulate him. A little later, just hours from the judgment that will settle her fate, she mentions Mert’s visit to Ömer. This seemingly inconsequential piece of information gives him an idea, a last chance to save Elif from life in prison. He rushes off. Elif is eventually transferred under guard from the hospital to the courtroom. During some preliminary discussions, the judge makes it clear that the preponderance of evidence still points to her guilt. Just as he begins the official reading of the verdict and the resulting sentence, Ömer pushes through the door at the back of the courtroom and calls out for him to stop. The alleged murder victim, he says, is still alive. The judge looks angrily at him. Ömer turns his head back toward the door and Hüseyin slowly comes in. He is limping due to a new prosthetic on his right leg from the knee down. After hearing his statement, the judge announces an acquittal and tells Elif she is free to go. Great stuff. The idea that Elif’s past kindness to Mert helps to save her is a nice touch. That and the leg thing. And now just 13 more episodes…
Today the Oregon Health Authority is reporting a relatively high number of new confirmed cases–96 in the last 24 hours. But they also report a high number of tests processed during that period, nearly 4,000. The media often report “spikes” in the numbers of new confirmed cases, but very often this means simply that we are getting better at finding cases. At this point it is not a good indicator of how much of the total population is infected or of how serious the virus is. The only data we have for that are the number of hospitalizations and the number of deaths.
Here at the Pandemic Diary, we also track the daily ratio of positive tests to total tests. This would be a really interesting number if the people being tested were selected at random from the population. This very much not the case, of course, as testing efforts need to be focused on certain groups. So the ratio doesn’t say very much about the prevalence or seriousness of the virus. Still, we like this statistic because it’s easy to calculate and makes for a cute graph. At this point the ratio of positives continues to decline gently as the number of tests per day trends flat or slowly up.
Saturday, June 6
Statewide: 163 deaths, 145,322 cases (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +93)
And here it is–our local paper reporting this morning about Friday’s increase in the number of cases confirmed.
The headline is problematic for the usual reasons. The article itself gives the context, suggesting that the increase comes from a larger than usual number of tests and from more diligent contact tracing. But some people will not read beyond the headline and might thus conclude that the sky is falling. Some others, who do read the article, will note the reasons given but assume that they are merely excuses manufactured by the state authorities in a vain attempt to cover up their own inability to deal with a worsening problem. It is difficult for anyone to read the phrase “a spike in confirmed cases” without getting the sense that the whole situation is, in fact, getting worse. But also, of course, some readers have already decided that the pandemic has been wildly overblown by public officials, pharmaceutical companies, and a complicit media establishment. These folks will see this as just another attempt to sow panic in order to justify continued assaults on our basic rights as citizens. I don’t have any answers here, but I’ve been thinking of some alternative headlines anyway. How about “Latest COVID Case Stats Show Results of Better Testing Focus”? That should bore everybody.
In other news, the Washington Post reports that in Europe many officials are now wondering if school closures were really necessary, pointing to a number of countries where schools reopened early without negative consequences. Lastly, Reuters reports from Florida that drive-through Botox treatments are once again available.
Sunday, June 7
Statewide: 164 deaths, 147,528 cases (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +146)
The new case count includes 65 cases at a seafood processing plant.
Demonstrations in support of Black Lives Matter have been taking place worldwide. We went to one in Corvallis today. There were a few boomers but mostly younger people. Pretty much everyone wore a mask.
The paper says the crowd numbered 4,000, which seems a little high to me. Still, it was heartening, very much so.
We are coming to the end of our Turkish soap–just seven more episodes to go. But action continues unabated. After a brief interlude in which she was kidnapped (again!) and locked into a puzzle house where she almost died of poison gas, Elif is once again free and reunited with Ömer. And the mega-evil Tayyar is in jail! But wait, where is Nilüfer, Elif’s younger sister, she who is pregnant by soulful psycho-man Fatih? The reason she hasn’t been heard from is that some of Tayyar’s henchmen are holding her and plan to bury her in wet concrete if Tayyar is not sprung from jail and allowed to flee the country. Fatih can’t help her because he’s also in jail, along with Hüseyin. Once again it will be up to Ömer, Elif, Arda and Pelin to somehow resolve this crisis. Sadly, their colleague İpek has died in a gunfight with some of the evil Nedret’s henchmen. She shot all four of the bad guys who tried to kill her, but was fatally wounded in the process. Once, long ago, İpek and Ömer were sweethearts. No one has yet had the heart to tell him of her demise. She is survived by her young son, Yağız, who could almost have been Ömer’s child, but wasn’t.