Pandemic Diary — Nov. 22 to Dec. 7, 2021

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

It’s been a frustrating month for M, who has faithfully tracked the ups and downs of the pandemic in Oregon for almost two years now. To do so, he has depended on daily and weekly reports from the Oregon Health Authority. OHA reports on such things as number of tests given, number of new cases, number vaccinations given, number of hospitalizations, and of course number of deaths. These OHA reports are published on the web for all to see. Nice and clear. Except  that for the past several weeks things aren’t so nice and clarity is out the window. Let’s look at some recent examples: 

Here are the opening sentences of three consecutive OHA daily press releases:

1. Issued on Nov 22 showing data for the period Nov. 19-21:

There are 103 new COVID-19 related deaths in Oregon, raising the state’s death toll to 5,016, Oregon Health Authority (OHA) reported at 12:01 a.m. today. 

2. Issued on Nov 23 showing data for Nov 22:

There are 51 new COVID-19 related deaths in Oregon, raising the state’s death toll to 5,067, Oregon Health Authority (OHA) reported at 12:01 a.m. today. 

3. Issued on Nov 24 showing data for Nov 23:   

There are 50 new COVID-19 related deaths in Oregon, raising the state’s death toll to 5,116, Oregon Health Authority (OHA) reported at 12:01 a.m. today.

That seems pretty clear, does it not? Doesn’t it seem that the OHA is reporting that 204 (103+50+51) Oregonians have died in the last five days? Well, you might think that, but you’d be wrong. Because the real number of Oregon COVID deaths in those five days was 27. 

How, you might ask, does the Pandemic Diary know that these reports are not what they seem? Do we have a confidential source inside OHA, a honest and courageous individual whose identity we would never reveal even under threat of prosecution or torture? No, thank goodness, that’s not it.

All we did was read the finer details of OHA’s own data, which can be found way down at the end of the same press releases. That’s where we find that 177 of the reported 204 COVID-related deaths actually occurred in previous months, mostly September and October but also as far back as December of 2020. These deaths are only now being reported as COVID deaths and thus only now being added to the Oregon COVID registry. Or, as a different OHA weekly report puts it:

These recently recorded deaths reflect, in part, ongoing efforts to address a backlog of suspected COVID-19-associated deaths identified by matching death certificate records to previously reported cases of COVID-19. 

Okay, but why not report these adjustments separately from current deaths? Why do they instead suggest that all of the 204 deaths are new? Tsk-tsk. More on this another time.

Thursday, November 25, 2021

We had a lovely Thanksgiving dinner with our friends K and J in Salem. The Andees were there too, having come down from Vancouver. Good food, fine décor, and good group of people. K has started a run for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. He is now focused on figuring out who his rivals will be in the Democratic primary and also, of course, on how to raise money. A and E have known K for many years now, ever since he was a friend of Becca’s back in their college days. We’re rooting for him. 

Friday, November 26, 2021

Good as it was, the K&J Thanksgiving dinner lacked pecan pie. So we’re on our own for that vital nutritional component. We have all the ingredients–except pecans. Well actually we even have pecans, but we have pecan pieces, not whole pecans and that’s not satisfactory. E strongly prefers whole pecans because whole pecans are much easier to pick out and discard. Yes, E loves pecan pie, but she goes mostly for the filling. As for the pecans–yuck!

Saturday, November 27, 2021

So we got ourselves a Christmas tree and went home and strung some lights on it. Turns out we don’t have quite enough lights. We remember this problem from last year. Now we must find time to buy another string or two. Can’t do that right now though, as we have other priorities, such as finding some whole pecans.

Sunday, November 28, 2021

M got up and made a pie crust. E filled it with the necessary ingredients for pecan pie. Later M went outside and put up Christmas lights. It was a beautiful day to be out, 63º and mostly sunny. Also, we bought some more indoor tree lights. Haven’t got them on the tree yet though. Ho-ho-ho.

Boy, that was good pie.

Monday, November 29, 2021

The opening sentence of today’s OHA press release reported 27 “new” deaths. Near the bottom of the same document, the details of each death show that just 19 of these occurred in November.

We here at the PD have no problem with people who make mistakes or omissions and who then correct them. In fact, we like those people. Making mistakes is how people become competent and we surely have a need for as many competent people as possible. So the fact that OHA is making adjustments is not the issue. And all in all, their messaging shows that they want to be transparent about correcting the omissions; unfortunately, they just can’t quite get to the point of being completely transparent, which is of course another mistake. But there’s more to it than this. We’re not talking about one person here, we’re talking about a complex system of many, many people. The reporting of a death begins with the doctor who signs the death certificate, which includes the date and cause(s) of someone’s demise. The data then goes to county health officials who collect the local data and forward it to the Oregon Health Authority. At OHA the data is further inspected and then becomes part of the official registry. So the process involves a lot of people. Now we’re just speculating here, but it’s just possible that not all of those people see things in quite the same light. Specifically, they may not all agree on just what constitutes a COVID death. In fact, it is virtually certain that some disagreement will occur. (See M’s essay on the nature of reality.) Quite possibly, we are not really talking about mistakes or unintentional omissions related to the death count. Instead, if we ever get to the root of why these adjustments are being made, we may find a host of long simmering conflicts about just how COVID deaths should be counted. 

In the evening we tried putting the new tree lights onto the tree. Failed. We bought the wrong kind of lights…the stupid kind.

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Breakfast today at Bodhi’s. They make a pretty good decaf americano. They have great croissants too–if you like them burnt on top. (Surely that’s a little peculiar!) But breakfast gave us the strength to go on. First, we went to the chocolate shop and got a few little items. Then we got another set of tree lights at Fred Meyer and then a couple of takeout sandwiches from the Vietnamese Baguette. Then we took a walk; then we prepared presents to send to the faraways; then E met a friend for coffee while M worked in the yard, then we put the new new lights onto the tree; and finally we had spaghetti and salad for dinner. Whew! We’re tired now.

Wednesday, December 1, 2021

Another sunny day. M got the Boxster out again and went zipping around the countryside on those new sticky tires. He stopped to eat his sack lunch at the Thompson Mills State Heritage Site. 

Back in Corvallis, it was time to update our long-term tracking of the severity of the pandemic in Oregon.  As mentioned, the Oregon Health Authority has reported many “new” deaths that aren’t really new. Once these are filtered out, the November numbers show a very significant decline compared to September and October.

Of course all the numbers reflected in the chart are provisional. It’s funny how hard counting can be.

Thursday, December 2, 2021

Tertulia today with J and R at Coffee Culture. We sat outside in the cold, but one of the staff came outside to the big tent and lit up the propane heaters, which made it pretty comfortable. J and R have a new houseguest, a high school age exchange student from Hungary. 

Friday, December 3, 2021

E had her first ever Zoom embroidery session with friend S in New York. Although not many stitches were made, the meeting was a resounding success. In the afternoon we had tea time with P.

Saturday, December 4, 2021

E made trucha a la Navarra for dinner. Our friend C was here to share it. We met C when we were all teaching at the monastery in Thailand. C is an inveterate traveler and he’s at it again, this time going up and down the Pacific coast by train. He’ll stay with us a couple of nights and then be off to his next stop. 

Sunday, December 5, 2021

We took C down to the Finley Reserve to see the waterfowl–hundreds of trumpeter swans, Canada geese and ducks fo various sorts. We had a sunny day for it and the view from Bruce Road, with sun low in the sky behind us, was very fine. From there we went up into the Coast Range to see Alsea Falls.

Next, we dropped down into the Alsea Valley to see if we could find any Coho salmon in the river. We’d been told they come up to spawn at about this time of year. But the only thing we found was this sad reminder that once they spawn, the salmon die.

Monday, December 6, 2021

We took C back to the train station today. We had been thinking of a nature walk in the morning, but the rain was pelting down, so instead we headed for Albany early and stopped on the way at Margins coffeehouse. Good stuff there. C is on his way to Eugene where he’ll stay with another friend. C has friends everywhere and it’s not hard to see why. 

Tuesday, December 7, 2021

We are still working on decorating the our Christmas tree. Progress has been slow, but we think we’re about done.