Author: Michael Witbeck

Wednesday, May 20

Statewide: 144 deaths, 3,801 cases, 102,049 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +25)

An article in today’s paper warned of potentially drastic consequences of early re-opening. Its main argument was that the total number of COVID cases in the U.S. is still rising. But it was not clear whether the writer understood the difference between cumulative totals over time and specific conditions at any one particular time. Plus, as we have mentioned earlier, the number of confirmed COVID cases has as much to do with the number of tests processed as it does with the actual number of infections in the population. If our goal is to minimize the number of confirmed cases, the simplest solution would be to stop doing so much testing. (And yes, some of our leaders have already thought of this.) On the other hand, if the goal is to minimize the overall negative effects of the pandemic, there is no simple solution.

Thursday, May 21

Statewide: 145 deaths, 3,817 cases, 105,132 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +16)

Of the 145 deaths in Oregon, 138 (95%) involved victims aged 60 and above. There have been 8 deaths of individuals between the ages of 40 and 59 and no deaths of anyone younger than 40. (These numbers are updated daily at https://govstatus.egov.com/OR-OHA-COVID-19)

E and M got depressed last night from watching their stupid Turkish soap. Learning the truth about his brother has brought Ömer’s worst neuroses to the fore and he was unable to go through with his marriage to Elif, leaving her at the altar in her pretty white dress. We knew this was coming, but we were still sad to see it. What a schmuck. 

Friday, May 22

Statewide: 147 deaths, 3,864 cases, 107,745 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +47)

Once again Friday means E fetches French pastries for breakfast and then M goes grocery shopping. In kind of a rut here, but it’s working pretty well. The pain au chocolat was delicious and the store was uncrowded. The selection of fresh fish was better today than it has been in weeks, so something’s changing there. Still no paper towels. Lots of sanitizer. 

M is finishing up his feeble attempt to explain why he has watched so much of Black Money Love. Is the world clamoring for such news? Not exactly. But as for the show itself, M and E are the not the only ones watching. M says that the series is or was available on TV in some 30 countries.

Saturday, May 23

Statewide: 147 deaths, 3,888 cases, 110,118 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +24)

Another day with no new deaths reported in Oregon. Tomorrow will be chart day.

Sunday, May 24

Statewide: 148 deaths, 3,927 cases, 112,110 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +39)

Zoom gathering today with two of E’s long-time friends plus the Andees. Not something that would have happened without the pandemic. Beautiful spring day. After dinner, we watched two more episodes of the Turkish show. Must say that our interest is starting to wane. Too long. Too slow. So, back to the pandemic. Good news on that front. Death numbers are down. The Pandemic Diary has been tracking basic Oregon statistics for 60 days now. Here’s a graph that shows the basic data as divided into six 10-day periods. The numbers on the vertical axis are the average number of deaths per day. The period of March 27 to April 5 showed a steep increase in daily deaths. The four periods from April 6 to May 15 show a plateau that tilts down. The most recent period shows a steep decline. What does the future hold? Stay tuned.

The following two charts are not news, but they are interesting given some of the confusion that surrounded such numbers in the early stages of the pandemic. What they show is that an overall increase in the number of tests per day in Oregon has been accompanied by a decrease in the daily percentage of test results that are positive. At the beginning, when testing capacity was lowest, testing was limited to a very high probability population: people who showed clear COVID symptoms and people who were known to have been exposed to confirmed cases, such as family members and health care workers. As testing capacity expanded, the population of people tested started to include a slightly wider circle of people, which included those who may have been exposed to known cases or who showed less definite COVID-like symptoms. Given this expanded circle, it would seem natural to expect a decrease in the percentage of positive results per day as indeed is shown in the second graph. It should be noted that the numbers in these two graphs do not provide any conclusive information about transmissibility of the virus or its prevalence in the general population. They are artifacts of our response to the virus.

Kara Para Aşk, a.k.a. Black Money Love, is a Turkish series set in modern day Istanbul. Eve and I love this show. Produced in 2014 and 2105, it has elements of a crime drama, but it’s mainly a soap. It is available on Netflix in the form of 164 45-minute episodes with Turkish dialog and English subtitles. So far we’ve suffered through 115 episodes. I use the word suffered because in many respects this show is really terrible. 

But never mind that now. First let’s try to find out why we like it so much. One thing is that it reminds us of Turkey. We lived and worked in Ankara for a year in 2007 and it was a wonderful experience. As we watch Black Money Love, we can hear the Turkish language again and experience again the Turkish energy and the Turkish spirit. The producers of BML deliberately include scenes that celebrate some aspects of Turkish culture and also include lots of footage of the beauties of Istanbul. (Istanbul is way too crowded to be livable, but it’s a wonderful place to visit and it is strikingly photogenic on film.) BML characters are often snacking on simit, a distant relative of the bagel. Man, do we miss simit. Occasionally the characters indulge in a full-blown Turkish breakfast, of which we have even more wonderful memories. Some of them drink rakı, which is a like oozu but not as nasty. Everybody drinks Turkish tea and behaves in ways that are very much connected (let us say) to the way real Turks behave. 

We studied the Turkish language a little when we were there. We’ve forgotten most of it (E has retained more than M) but we remember a few words and grammar rules. So with the help of the subtitles, we can make out, now and then, words that we know. That’s great fun. Plus, we have learned one or two new phrases just because they are used so often. The best example of this is sakın ol, which means calm down. In BML someone is always telling someone else to calm down.

As for the show itself, BML production values are high. Lighting and photography are excellent. The location shoots include the interiors of a some lovely buildings, both new and old. And in every episode there are multiple shots of the Bosphorus, one of the loveliest city views in the world. The costuming is great, with beautiful fabrics and extraordinary colors and designs. The hairstyles and jewelry are also impressive. (And yes, some of Elif’s hair is fake and also some of Ömer’s, but it’s not too obvious.) The chief actors are all good-looking and talented, capable of giving life to mediocre dialog and able to communicate volumes with just a look or a small movement. The stars are Tuba Büyüküstün (Elif) and Engin Akyürek (Ömer). They are both excellent in their way. We have to say, though, that veteran actors Erkan Can (Tayyar) and Isil Yücesoy (Nedret) often steal the show. Eve is particularly taken with Nedret’s clothing and hairstyles. She’s thinking of taking a photo along to her next hair appointment. Nedret is somewhat of a shady character, so our sources are not sure this is a good idea.

• 

• 

• 

The directing and editing are competent: crisp and clear, but never frantic. At the tensest moments time seems to dilate as the action is stretched out almost to the point of ridiculousness. (Well okay, it is sometimes stretched out even a little bit past that point.) In general, Turks are not afraid to overdo, in any realm. Take the actress who plays Nilüfer. Everybody thinks she’s beautiful, but she’s thin, really thin, freakishly, ridiculously thin. How is that actress even alive? We really wish she would eat something. 

As for the writing, there’s good news and bad news. One problem with soaps in general is that occasionally everyone’s energy seems to flag and the action slows to a crawl. Conversations just rehash previous ones and plot progression is nil. This happens in BML, but not very often. Most of the time the writers keep the pot at a hard rolling boil. New crises pop up thick and fast. The good people suffer and suffer and then suffer some more. You’d suffer too in their shoes. 

Or maybe you wouldn’t. I have to mention that in this show the good people are not always real bright. They have powerful emotions combined with frustratingly low levels of emotional intelligence, with the result that some of their worst wounds are self-inflicted. The evil characters  in BML are a lot smarter than the good ones, but even they are not immune this particular problem. Sigh. Thank goodness nothing like that has ever happened to us.

And no one ever gives up. The monstrous Tayyar keeps an iron grip on his evil enterprises, always scheming and always smart enough stay one step ahead of his foes. He loves power above all and he will allow no force on earth to thwart him. But policeman Ömer is equally determined. He will persevere no matter how often he is outmaneuvered or betrayed. Once, when he does momentarily succumb to discouragement, his mother Elvan sees it in his face. “Don’t worry, my son,” she tells him, “God won’t let you fail.” 

The name of the game here is drama and they get that right, for sure. So why did I say that we have had to “suffer through” all these episodes. What’s so terrible? The worst is that the events in BML, as dramatic as they are, proceed with little regard for plausibility, consistency, or basic logic. The writers have no shame whatever. A character who leaves home driving her car returns in a taxi or is dropped off by a friend. Powerful evil doers who routinely get away with murder are strangely reluctant to just bump off their most dangerous enemies and instead go to great lengths merely to make those enemies uncomfortable and ruin their wedding plans. Minor bad guys often get arrested, but they are never, ever brought to trial. Either they immediately escape custody and disappear, or else they are murdered by their cellmates. In fact, whenever a prisoner gets a cellmate, you know it’s curtains for him. Another problem is that there is so much repetitiveness about all these crises that it’s hard to tell this week’s from last’s. Also, the dialog is uneven. Once in a while there will be an intense and highly emotional confrontation that makes no sense at all–sort of like two characters in a darkening room arguing violently about whose fault it is that they can’t see very well, never noticing that the sun has gone down and all the while ignoring the perfectly functional light switch that they’re standing next to. 

Another possible difficulty with BML is the matter of sexism and gender roles. There is generally more machismo and stereotyping than would be acceptable in a TV series here. When women try to walk away from an argument, men physically restrain them by grabbing their arms and jerking them around. (And these are the good guys; bad guys do much worse in the way of abuse.) In terms of roles, it’s always a woman who cooks, be it relative or servant. Ömer has cooked once, but the writers were careful to show us that he wasn’t very good at it. When Elif, a rich young career woman, gets engaged, it’s critical for her to show how well she can cook. She passes the test with flying colors, despite having been fed by servants most of her life. 

But this brings up another reason why we like this show. Like any good soap, it both mirrors and stretches the boundaries of the society in which it is produced. Elif, our female lead–she who passes the cooking test–is not dependent on any man. She is the de facto head of her family’s company and is also a talented designer. Although she is in love with Ömer, she is fully capable of going off on her own in defiance of his wishes. Another woman, Pelin, is a police detective who works with Ömer in the homicide bureau. The fact that she’s there at all is of course a measure of gender equality. And she’s an interesting character–smart, hardworking, and feisty. But so often her role is that of personal assistant, taking care of the details so that Ömer will have time to do whatever it is that he does. Still, the role of Pelin is not so different than that of her boyfriend and fellow detective Arda. Both are there to support Ömer. Many heroes have sidekicks; Ömer has two.   

The matter of reflecting and/or prodding societal norms in popular media is a sensitive issue in Turkey and Turkish writers work within a number of constraints. One of these constraints is that there is a law against “insulting Turkishness.” If you are perceived as insulting Turkishness, you can be arrested and imprisoned. This has happened to quite a number of writers, journalists, moviemakers and poets. Turkishness is a nebulous concept and there are no clear boundaries on what constitutes an insult to it, so things can get really complicated. But complication is Turkey’s middle name. The ancient name for Istanbul was Byzantium. The word byzantine in English means really, really complex because that’s the kind of reputation that Byzantium had. Things haven’t changed all that much in three thousand years. As far as I can tell, both insult and complication are key elements to understanding Turkish culture. 

So…given that insults to Turkishness are illegal and also ill-defined, is it wise to base a popular entertainment on the idea that Turkey might harbor a malignant criminal empire, one based partly on murdering people to steal their organs and partly on international money laundering, with key Istanbul police officials being paid off to provide protection? Is it wise to show guards in Turkish jails being bribed to look the other way while prisoners carry out their schemes? How about the police using physical violence when interrogating suspects? Can you get in trouble for showing this? The fact that criminal empires exist in Turkey is very well known to most Turks. But does that make it more less dangerous to say it out loud or more dangerous? It’s complicated. What it means in the case of Black Money Love is that if you play it just right, your ratings jump even higher.

Another challenge for film and TV makers in Turkey is that to reach the broadest audience, their work must appeal to both halves of a very divided society. A portion of the Turkish population is highly secular, which is to say, not particularly religious and very much in favor of the separation of church and state. People in this group are culturally Islamic in that they celebrate major Islamic holidays and revere certain traditions that have arisen from Islamic beliefs, but that’s about as far as it goes. These secular Turks, who live mostly in the big cities in the center and west of Turkey, look and act a lot like Europeans. They drink alcohol in bars and restaurants; they dance at parties; they wear European clothing; they take tango tourism trips to Argentina, and they don’t pray five times a day, if they pray at all. The women wear tight jeans and short skirts in public and rarely cover their hair. Women and men are considered to have equal rights, though it appears that in practice that gets…complicated.

So that’s one group. Another large portion of the population takes the religious aspects of Islam and so-called traditional culture much more seriously. Many do pray five times a day; they never drink alcohol (at least not in public); women rarely cover their faces, but they always cover their hair and wear extremely modest clothing in public. Bare arms are never shown, let alone legs. Men and women have very different roles, with the men having generally more public status and power. Music and dancing are limited to a few special occasions and couples never dance together in public. In 2006, an opinion poll in Turkey found that a majority of men and a narrow majority of women agreed with the idea that a husband had the right to beat his wife if he believed it was called for. 

People who make TV serials in Turkey want to appeal to both groups without offending either. Watching how BML manages this balance is another of the joys of viewing. It works like this. The great majority of characters appear to be secular. Some openly drink alcohol in bars; they all wear fashionable European clothing; women show their hair and a fair amount of skin; we generally don’t see them praying. Almost none of the characters are ever overtly religious, not the bad guys and not the good guys either. There are two exceptions. The first and most important is Ömer’s mother. Elvan dresses modestly and always covers her hair in public. She is the one character who prays often. Elvan is also the most clearly good person in the whole of the BML universe: wise, kind, and nurturing. She listens more than she speaks and speaks less than she knows. We see her praying, but she prays at home so we never see a mosque. In general, this religious woman is a saint. Elvan’s acquaintance Fatma is somewhat different. She covers her head when she is outside and dresses modestly, but it’s not clear how often she actually prays. In the first sections of the series, she is a fairly unpleasant woman. When she mentions God, she is likely to be calling down some sort of curse on someone, or else calling upon God to spare her daughter from the horrible dangers of being a mafia runner, an occupation that Fatma herself urged her daughter to take up. She is also a vicious and inveterate gossip. Later on, Fatma is redeemed to an extent. Eventually, Elvan continued genuine compassion toward Fatma wears down her spitefulness and she becomes a more supportive friend. Elvan has a much larger part in the drama than Fatma, but both of them are counters in the culture wars, and demonstrate the producers’ wish to cover all the bases.

That’s probably the safest way to go here. Religious viewers may be scandalized by both the clothing and the behavior of Elif and her sisters, but as everyone knows the right level of scandal is exactly what pulls in the viewers. Elif often wears short skirts to work, often shows her bare arms, and never covers her hair in the summer. (In the winter she wears an endless series of designer woolen caps.) Once–but only once–Elif and Ömer were shown sitting near one another at a swimming pool. Elif wore a fashionable two piece bathing suit, not a bikini but not an overly modest style either. This was only shown in one kind of middle distance camera shot and in only one pose: with Elif seated in a deep lounge chair with a towel strategically blocking any view of her hips. Ömer was similarly posed in his swim suit. The whole scene contributed nothing to the plot. It wasn’t meant to; it was meant to contribute to the ratings and, perhaps in a small way, to show a commitment to an open and secular society. And, it was a one-time deal. If the show’s producers showed such scenes often, they might be in trouble. They need to push the boundaries just a little and then back off. They’re not thinking only about Turkey. They were surely thinking from the start about the export market. Since 2015 BML has made money for them in 30 countries around the world, including Indonesia, the world’s most populous Islamic nation. (Also among the 30 are both Egypt and Israel, as well as Chile, Peru, Colombia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Spain and Kuwait.)

Another aspect of BML that we find interesting is that it tries to showcase certain other aspects of Turkish culture. There are a wealth of references to traditional foods and customs, including marriage customs. Although the language is varied and is sometimes obscene enough to require bleeping, it also seems to include a large number of familiar politeness formulae that are specific to Turkey and Turkish culture. And then there are those many scenes shot on location at places that Turks might be rather proud of. The new bridge over the Bosphorus, for example, is featured often. Characters go out to what appear to be very lovely restaurants and have tea in charming cafes all over town, including many on the waterfront. In one episode Elif takes Ömer to a luxurious private resort–a place where he and his family would never otherwise be able to go–where they spend the day sampling all the various amenities. (This was probably a real resort who may or may not have paid the producers for the privilege of being featured.) These are all exterior locations rather than artificial sets and they all make Turkey look like a paradise. And speaking of paradise, whenever BML characters drive their cars, traffic is light and flows smoothly. Parking is never a problem. All of this gushing over Turkish culture and Turkish places is a treat for the audience, including two formerly resident foreigners, and could possibly help ratings. But what else does it do? It balances the presentation of the nasty corruption which is at the heart of the story. “Insult Turkey?” the producers can say. “Are you crazy? We love Turkey to death. Just look.”

So there you have it. Kara Para Aşk, Black Money Love. It’s terrible, but it’s wonderful. Of course we’ve only gotten to Episode 115 out of 164. All we can say at this point, considering all that it has put us through, is that it better have an awfully nice ending. 

And by the way, there’s another great Turkish show on Netflix called Winter Sun (Kış Güneşi). It’s just as wonderful as BML; it’s also less terrible than BML; and there are far fewer episodes. To see the trailer for Winter Sun or to read dozens of American fans’ comments about it, see the Winter Sun entry on the Turkish Drama Website.

ADDENDUM: Questions and answers about Black Money Love.

Q: You mentioned some obscene language. Can I really learn Turkish swear words by watching this show?

A: Unfortunately not. The nasty words are included in the English subtitles, but they are bleeped out of the Turkish soundtrack. But that doesn’t mean you can’t learn anything at all. Take this example, something one hoodlum says to another:

We hear:  Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah BLEEP!

We read:  I’ll shit on your grave if you try to mess with me! 

We learn:  In Turkish, the main verb comes at the end.

Q: If you love Turkey so much, why don’t you just go live there?

A: Hey, we said we liked a lot of things about Turkey. Among those things are how beautiful it is and how nice they are to visitors. We never said Turkey doesn’t have problems. Turkey has problems. They’re different from our problems, but not all that different.  

Q: You said that Istanbul used to be called Byzantium. I thought it was called Constantinople.

A: You’re right. It was called Constantinople between the time it was called Byzantium and the time it started to be called Istanbul. If you are Greek, you can still call it Constantinople if you want to, because if you are Greek you’re never going to let any Turk tell you what to call anything.

Q: Is it true that Elif is currently the most common name given to girl babies in Turkey?

A: Yes. 

Q: How do you say turkey (the bird) in Turkish?

A: The Turkish word for turkey is hindi. That means that turkeys were thought to come from India. But turkeys are from the new world. But Columbus, who discovered the new world, thought he had reached India. So when he brought back these big birds… Apparently there was a lot of confusion back then, unlike now when everything is clear and good.

Q: I watched a few episodes and I noticed that there are a lot of scenes of cars and driving. But on all the cars the brand logos and badges have been covered or removed. So, except for Bahar’s Mini, it’s hard to tell what model of car they are. What’s up with that?

A: Beats me. Something complicated, I’m sure. For what it’s worth I’m guessing that Elif’s blue car is a Mercedes A-class and that the white convertible that Ömer rents is a Mercedes E350. In one episode Fatih drives a Porsche Macan. I have no idea about Ömer’s own car, the blue one, but it looks boring.    

Monday, May 11

Statewide: 130 deaths, 3,286 cases, 77,542 tested  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +58)

Over the last ten days, the Oregon Health Authority has reported an average of 2.6 COVID deaths per day. That rate has been mostly unchanged since my record keeping began on March 26th. So the curve is flat as can be. Will it ever go down? Or will it go up as restrictions are eased? We shall see. 

Tuesday, May 12

Statewide: 130 deaths, 3,358 cases, 79,595 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +72)

It’s rainy and cooler today, a welcome change. E had an exercise class in the morning and then went walking in the OSU research forest in the afternoon. The OSU forest has just been reopened after more than a month of closure. E reports that the woods are beautiful this spring and that she saw only a few other hikers. Meanwhile, M was in the garage working on refurbishing the cordless trimmer. Also down here in the city, it’s iris season.

With reported fatalities totaling 130, Oregon has reached the level of 3 deaths for every 100,000 residents. For comparison, the states with the highest number of deaths per 100,000 are New York (138), New Jersey (107), Connecticut (85), and Massachusetts (75). States with the fewest are Utah and Montana with 2 per 100,000 and Wyoming, Hawaii and Alaska with 1 per 100,000. (These numbers are from the Washington Post, May 12.) 

According to Johns Hopkins, the current number of deaths per 100,000 in the U.S. as a whole is 25. Some other countries are Belgium (76),  Spain (57),  Italy (51),  U.K. (48),  France (39),  Sweden (32) and Germany (9). 

As we look at these figures, let’s do keep in mind that in times such as ours concerning matters such as these, numbers always lie. According to M, that’s part of why these are so interesting.

Wednesday, May 13

Statewide: 134 deaths, 3,416 cases, 83,909 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +58)

Another hike in the OSU forest today, this time with M coming along. Man, it’s green out there! Plenty of  healthy-looking poison oak for example. On the way home we stopped at a nursery for E’s Portulaca starts. They’ve been hard to find, but we got ‘em.

In the afternoon M tried out his cordless trimmer with its new cutting head installed. Whoa! The tough grass that once resisted the trimmer’s whirling strings now falls to its whirling blades. But with great power comes danger. M’s technique is appalling. Dirt and bark chip were flying everywhere.

In the latest episode of Black Money Love we see that despite the best efforts of their enemies to break them apart, Elif and Ömer remain in love and are still officially engaged to be married. But the mystery about who fathered İpek’s child hangs like the sword of Damocles above their heads. And now Nilüfer, Elif’s headstrong younger sister, has sneaked off and got herself married to her intensely romantic psycho-man boyfriend-from-hell Fatih. Elif is angry and distraught. Meanwhile, Arda and Pelin are smiling again because–but no, that’s enough of that. 

Thursday, May 14

Statewide: 137 deaths, (Deaths: +3)

Hiked today at Chip Ross Park, which is just up the road. Beautiful views through light rain. Earlier, E had a Zoom class and then dared visit BiMart where she secured, among other things, some disinfectant wipes and a bottle of Josh cabernet, two basic necessities in times of plague. 

M’s mother has received another letter concerning her economic stimulus payment. It is again addressed to Patricia A Petrich, DECD and the return address on the envelope is again the Department of the Treasury, Internal Revenue Service. The letter inside, however, is from no mere functionary. It is on what purports to be White House stationery and is signed by the President. He says that he is “pleased to notify you that as provided by the CARES act, you are receiving an Economic Impact Payment of $1,200 by check/debit card.” M is also pleased as he now has the complete set. 

Friday, May 15

Statewide: 137 deaths, 3,541 cases, 89,444 tested  (Deaths: +0)

Another day of zero reported deaths in Oregon, the fifth one this month. Here’s an updated chart.

M reports that our local Market of Choice grocery now has tons of toilet paper, but no paper towels. He has also confirmed that our local French pastry shop continues to have very good pain au chocolat. The big news in the state is that our county, along with 31 others in Oregon, has been approved for a Phase 1 re-opening, starting today. All stores are now allowed to open provided that proper distancing and other safety measures are enforced. The reopening applies to barber shops, salons, clothing stores and a number of others. Interestingly, the reopening does not apply to bookstores and thrift shops. Why? Because they were never ordered to close in the first place.  

We are debating what to do with this long-awaited news. Are we going to rush out right now and go to a restaurant? Well, not today. Today we’re having salmon at home. Tomorrow is a Saturday and for the last little while Saturday has become take-out night. We may just do that again. Not sure we want to sit in a restaurant where all the staff are masked and gloved. Sounds eerie. But we shall see. 

Saturday, May 16

Statewide: 137 deaths, 3,612 cases, 92,121 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +71)

Another day with no reported COVID deaths in Oregon, the second in a row. Coinciding, as it does, with the partial re-opening, this makes the governor look good, as if she were prescient. (Competent is nice, but so is lucky.) The number of confirmed COVID cases is still going up, but it’s difficult to interpret this since there has also been an increase in the number of tests processed per day. In April Oregon was testing between 1,000 and 1,500 per day. Lately it has been more than 2,000 per day.

It’s cloudy and cool today with occasional drops of rain. E and M both worked in the garden in the morning, then went to Burger King for take-out lunch. E’s had an impossible burger while M had an unsustainable one. It’s a wonder we can eat at all. Burger King was not yet open for dine-in. The Vietnamese Baguette, our first choice, was not open at all. We guess they are busy making needed modifications to be able to open for dine-in service per the new rules sometime next week. On the way home we passed our favorite Mexican restaurant, La Rockita, which had been completely closed from the beginning of the crisis. A large sign proclaims that they are now open. So that’s something to look forward to.

The opening of the restaurant scene comes just in time for E and her friend H, who have the custom of taking each other out for their birthdays. Helen’s birthday is coming up next week, giving them time to figure out which places will be open by then and find out how hard it is to get a reservation. 

Sunday, May 17

Statewide: 137 deaths, 3,623 cases, 94,275 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +11)

For the third day in a row Oregon reports no new deaths. Also, only 11 new cases out of 2,154 new tests. 

M went to Trader Joe’s this afternoon and found a line of people waiting to get into the store. The line was so long it was hard to find the end. Of course it doesn’t take many people to make a really long line these days. Six maybe? At TJ’s the line moves fast and when it’s your turn, an employee pushes a disinfected cart toward you and waves you in. So the procedures are easy. Other customers, though, can be less easy. In a time of pandemic, says M, special rules of grocery shopping etiquette apply. One of them is that this is not the time to lean casually against a shelf for five or ten minutes with a box of TJ’s dried abalone flaked quinoa in your hand while you attempt to read all of the tiny print on the label. Just don’t do it. 

Monday, May 18

Statewide: 138 deaths, 3,687 cases, 97,232 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +64)

For quite some time the President has been touting hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, as an effective treatment for COVID infections. Today he announced that he now takes this drug every day, presumably as a preventative. For some, this raises the question (again) as to whether he is an idiot. Others wonder if he is telling the truth or not. Basically, though, this looks pretty straightforward. We’re just not used to presidents doing celebrity endorsements. This one harks back to earlier times when tobacco companies paid baseball players and medical doctors to extol the health benefits of smoking.  

Back in the real world, rain in the early morning, then clouds. M finished his sod project by noon. E walked to the store to get jello to make H’s birthday cake. She is surprised that M has never heard of adding jello to a cake mix. M asks how that could be legal. Says it must be an east coast thing. Still no paper towels on the shelves at Market of Choice. On the way to the store E passed La Rockita and stuck her head in. Turns out they are open for take-out only, no dining in. That’s understandable. The place is quite small with lots of little tables all very close together. Six foot spacing would leave them with maybe two tables that were usable. Hardly worth it.

It’s a good year for peonies here in Oregon. As you can see here, our peonies  are  were  may have been spectacular.  Oh threats of hell and hopes of paradise…

Tuesday, May 19

Statewide: 140 deaths, 3,726 cases, 99,630 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +39)

A gray, cool day. We did another walk in the forest. The rule is to carry a mask and put it on when encountering anyone on a narrow trail. We did that, and had just one encounter. Later we celebrated with a couple of take-out lattes from Coffee Culture. 

It was also our day to take our friend out for her birthday and we decided, perhaps foolishly, to dine in at one of our friend’s favorite places. It’s a Thai place, one that’s been in Corvallis quite a long time. In the early nineties, a couple of the the founders’ kids were our students at the old English Language Institute. 

The food was fine, but the experience was odd, off kilter you might say. When we arrived, just three tables were set up for dine-in business. One was occupied; we took another; the third remained unused. We arrived at 5:35 or so, just in time for the evening rush of take-out orders. This meant that there was a steady stream of people walking past us to get to the back of the space where they could pick up and pay for their orders. That was annoying. Perhaps one in ten of these visitors were wearing masks. 

After giving us water and menus our server got caught up in the rush of pick-up orders and left us to wait for quite a time. Suddenly we saw him jump up and give a startled glance our way. He then took our order and basically all was well. It was a different server who brought us our courses and later our bill. She wore a mask, but of the three employees we saw, she was the only one who did. Was this a violation of the Stage 1 opening rules? Yeah, we think it probably was. Both when we entered the restaurant and when we left there were quite a few young people on the sidewalk. Were they wearing masks? Nah, get serious. E thinks that they are being very irresponsible while M found them pretty normal. (The Thai place is near the university; we were on their turf.) After dinner we went home and had lemon cake, on which Eve had placed one candle for each 82-year segment of our friend’s life. 

Later we watched a couple more episodes of our Turkish soap opera, about which M is writing a long essay to explain why it must be watched despite its terribleness. 

Monday, May 4

Statewide: 109 deaths, 2759 cases, 63,443 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +79)

The second day in a row with no reported COVID deaths in Oregon. The case number total, however, is up by 79. OHA notes that this total includes both confirmed and presumptive cases. In their words: “Presumptive cases are those without a positive diagnostic test who present COVID-19-like symptoms and had close contact with a confirmed case.”

Made an excursion today to McDowell Creek Park north of Sweet Home. M’s iPhone reports 1.6 miles of walking and 16 flights climbed; E took an alternate route on the way down and logged considerably more. The volume of water coming over the various waterfalls was lower than when we visited in February, but still sufficient to make for lovely scenes. Had a picnic lunch prepared especially for us by McDonald’s of Lebanon.

Tuesday, May 5

Statewide: 113 deaths, 2,839 cases, 65,402 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +80)

Here’s a homemade graph of Oregon deaths, based on the data here in the Pandemic Diary so far. 

Wednesday, May 6

Statewide: 115 deaths, 2,916 cases, 67,947 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +57)

So far the COVID story in Oregon shows a strong urban/rural divide. Of Oregon’s 36 counties, 24 have reported 0 deaths from COVID. In three of the 24, the number of confirmed cases is also zero; in five others the number of cases is one. These are rural counties with low populations. Will they continue to be spared? Or is the virus just taking longer to arrive? We shall see. Meanwhile, let’s just imagine we live in a community where the case numbers are minimal and no one has died. Would we be pleased and relieved that the governor had ordered a lockdown? Some of us maybe, but that’s asking a lot. In general, I expect that we would simply be confirmed in our suspicions that those people in Salem and Portland are all knuckleheads and thank god we don’t live over there. 

Thursday, May 7

Statewide: 115 deaths, 2,916 cases, 67,947 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +57)

E organized a Zoom meeting with Jim, Joann and John. Nice! Joann really wants us to come and visit them. The pandemic does not seem to be part of her world.

Lunch from Burgerville today. Long line at the drive-up. Tomorrow’s breakfast from Le Patissier has been ordered. 

Watched two episodes of our Turkish soap last night. Elif and Ömer slept together again (finally!) and now spend a lot to time making goo-goo eyes at each other and not advancing the plot at all. But the new characters, Elif’s wealthy aunt, Nedret, and Ömer’s old girlfriend, İpek, are beginning to make their presence felt. İpek has been transferred into Ömer’s department and Elif has met her, but no one has informed Elif that the two have a history. Ooh.  

Friday, May 8

Statewide: 124 deaths, 3,032 cases, 72,657 tested  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +43)

Several excursions today.  E went out early to fetch croissants from Le Patissier. We had them with a couple of giant strawberries that arrived last night, a Mother’s Day present from the Andees. Thus fortified, M went out grocery shopping. Then at about 11:00 the two of us made an expedition to Home Depot to get a bit of wire fencing for E’s front corner garden. Lots of traffic on the roads by then and when we got to Home Depot, the parking lot was more crowded than we had ever seen. They’re limiting how many people can be in the store at any one time, so there was a long line of people waiting outside. The beautiful weather had something to do with it. But there may have been psychological reasons as well, a feeling that somehow we have turned the corner on the pandemic. We decided to abort and try again after lunch. A few hours later the line outside was shorter and moved quickly. But they had no fencing of the type wanted! So we kept our masks on and tried the Wilco farm store just down the road. Success!

Social hour with B and B in the afternoon at their new place. We felt some trepidation. Of all our friends they seemed a bit less concerned with taking precautions. But who can say no to the B’s? It was fine, we hope. 

The news from Kara Para Aşk, is that İpek has been shot! But she is expected to recover and she managed to disrupt the ambush meant to kill Arda. Elif is worried that Ömer might be feeling a little too much sympathy for İpek. Meanwhile, Ömer is beginning to face the awful truth about his brother Hüseyin.  

Saturday, May 9

Statewide: 127 deaths, 3,160 cases, 74,541 tested  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +128)

Although Oregon COVID deaths are still low and the curve is flat, the latest numbers do show a one-day spike in number of new cases. 

We had a busy Saturday morning, mostly doing garden work, but M also washed the Boxster and then remounted the kitchen can opener, which had fallen off the wall during a battle with a can of sauerkraut.

The big news, though, is that we have purchased a John Deere tractor. Given the size of our yard, this was almost a necessity. Almost.

Sunday, May 10

Statewide: 127 deaths, 3,228 cases, 75,450 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +68)

Mothers Day, 2020 and Eve celebrates by having an almond paste croissant and a giant strawberry for breakfast. Then she mows the lawn. After lunch a small box of Burst’s chocolates comes out of quarantine. It had been self isolating for three days to prepare for this occasion. 

Nedret continues her clever campaign to prevent Elif from marrying Ömer. She has learned that Ömer could be the father of İpek’s child! Yikes. You can see the wheels spinning as she plans how to use this information for maximum impact.

Monday, April 27

Statewide: 92 deaths, 2,354 cases, 51,198 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +43)

E did her restorative yoga class today via Zoom. M sat in–well out of camera range–and tried to follow along. It wasn’t pretty. And besides that, Elif is still in a filthy jail cell being pressured to make a false confession and Sami has been exiled to the obscurity in the provinces. Ömer is near despair, but his mother tells him never to give up hope. Back in the real world, we got some happy news friends in Colorado.

Tuesday, April 28

Statewide: 99 deaths, 3,385 cases, 52,242 tested  (Deaths: +7) (Cases: +31)

A week or so back, E went to the bookstore–you can’t go in, but they’ll bring things out to you–and bought a book of Molly Gloss short stories. This book of stories is called Unforeseen. Some of Gloss’s novels, like Hearts of Horses, have specific historical settings. The settings here, though, are different, sometimes contemporary and sometimes speculative. Most of them focus on lives that involve close relations with–and close observation of–the natural world. The stories tend to be immediately engrossing. Using seemingly simple materials, Gloss very quietly builds sharper and sharper tensions, which in the end are only partially resolved. (But the Tao says that the partial and the whole are one…)

We made a trip to Ankeny Wildlife Refuge today. In one part of the refuge, there is a small wetland forest where big ash trees grow. You can see them in the background below. In the spring the trunks push up through two or three feet of water. It’s perfect habitat for wood ducks, of which we saw many. There’s a boardwalk through the deepest part and a big octagonal blind. Had lunch sitting in the grass on the bank of an old dyke southeast of the ponds. Rode home with the top down.

Wednesday, April 29

Statewide: 101 deaths, 2,446 cases, 54,472 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +61)

Oregon’s total deaths have now reached 0.0235 per thousand by method of calculation that I have used previously. I’ve noticed recently that some official sources have begun reporting COVID results in terms of deaths per one hundred thousand. It seems to me that those numbers are easier to understand, so I will be using the 100,000 method from now on. In those terms, the Oregon number as of today is 2.35 deaths per every 100,000 inhabitants. This number will inevitably rise as more deaths occur. Two weeks ago, for example, it was 1.49 per 100,000.

For those of you who are naturally worried about what’s happening to Elif and Ömer, I can report that although Elif is still in jail, she has been moved to a nicer cell.

Thursday, April 30

Statewide: 103 deaths, 2,510 cases, 56,032 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +64)

 Another normal day for these times. Zoom BBB for Eve. Then a trip to Garland for plants, then some lunch, then some planting. And finally…quiet time, a.k.a. nap.Then it was M’s night to cook. The menu was Indian chickpeas, Indian saag lentils, and green salad. The larder is emptying, so a grocery store visit is planned for tomorrow. 

Elon Musk said that lockdowns are ‘fascist’ and is now being called insane and dangerous. Technically, Musk is right; the crisis response has been dictatorial and has overridden certain rights that normally we take for granted. In a real crisis, that’s what happens. And rightly so. Group survival depends on firm and timely measures even if some people disagree with them. 

But is this a real crisis? The virus is real, of course, and the virus deaths are real; but the crisis level is less clear. Is COVID truly an existential threat? Is our response to it proportional to our response to other threats? So far this year in Oregon, 104 people have died of the virus, most of them older people who were already in poor health. Also so far this year, 385 people in Oregon have died by suicide, quite a number of them young people who might have had many years of life before them. To deal with the virus, we are willing to turn our world upside down, causing hardships and life disruption to thousands of citizens and incurring financial losses in the billions of dollars. Fine. But what are we doing to prevent suicide, which is taking three and half times as many lives? In comparison, not very much. Automobile accidents this year in Oregon have cost perhaps twenty times as many lives as the virus. And thirty years ago, when cars were less safe, the highway death toll per capita was much higher. But has any governor, then or now, ever decreed a moratorium on cars? We also hear seemingly credible claims that the lockdown measures themselves are contributing to a large number of extra non-virus deaths. The COVID crisis is real all right, but it’s peculiar. It’s no wonder we have disagreement about what we’re doing in the name of fighting it. 

Friday, May 1

Statewide: 104 deaths, 2,579 cases, 58,176 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +69)

Successful grocery outing this morning. For a hour or two after we got home there was a mound of fresh vegetables sitting on our counter, freshly washed and waiting to be put away. And then, E once again braved the potential hazards of the French bakery. Pain au chocolat for lunch. Also, we note that emergency dental care is still functioning. M spoke to a friend who had root canal yesterday to prove it. At 5:00 we had a Zoom social hour with several old friends just before dinner.

But best of all, my mother got her $1200 stimulus check today. Frankly, we had not expected this. We thought it might be a mistake. Don’t they realize that she passed away a year and a half ago? But no, never let it be said that our government’s records are inaccurate. The check is written to Patricia A Petrich, DECD 

Saturday, May 2

Statewide: 109 deaths, 2,635 cases, 60,136 tested  (Deaths: +5) (Cases: +56)

A quiet day, rainy in the morning. We did some gardening with rain jackets on. Then later the weather turned fine. Saturday has become take-out dinner day! We did Pastini’s. 

Sunday, May 3

Statewide: 109 deaths, 2,680 cases, 62,054 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +45)

Lovely breakfast of almond paste croissants from E’s venture to the bakery on Friday. After breakfast she did a Zoom call with Suzanne and Mrs. Hopper, then talked to both brother John and daughter Andrea. M weeded for a couple of hours and got himself all stove up. E had to go for her walk alone, so she was able to go for a long one through the OSU campus with all the magnificent old rhododendrons. Their flowers are out now and it’s amazing to see towers of blossoms climbing up to the third story of some older buildings. In the evening we watched Call the Midwife and forewent the Turkish soap.

Wednesday, April 22

Statewide: 78 deaths, 2,059 cases out of (not available) tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +57)

As we have all heard by now, Sweden’s anti-pandemic measures have been very different from those imposed in the U.S. and in most of Europe. Gatherings of more than 500 people have been banned and universities are closed. High schools have also shut down, but schools for grades 1-9 have so far remained open. There seem to be few other restrictions. Swedes have freedom of movement and most businesses, including restaurants and bars, are open. Swedish authorities are focusing their quarantine efforts on known cases and high risk groups while leaving lower risk people alone. Will the result be a horrible disaster or will this approach be vindicated? The world waits with bated breath. It’s early yet, but so far Sweden is doing okay.

Taiwan has also kept schools and businesses open. As of April 23 they have reported only 6 deaths and only 427 confirmed cases. If that’s true, they are doing very much better than okay. Instead of a lockdown the Taiwanese acted early and decisively in the areas of international travel restrictions, lots of testing, and intensive tracking of known cases. It helped that they had a robust national health care system to facilitate this. Also helpful was the fact that Taiwan is an island, which makes it relatively easy to control and monitor travel into the country.

Meanwhile, back in the U.S., we hear that gun sales are way up and that shortages of ammunition have appeared. Gun shop owners report that customers have been buying their favorite ammunition by the case. (Depending on the calibre and the manufacturer, a case of ammunition contains between 500 and 2,500 bullets.) It turns out that there aren’t enough bullets around for everybody to be able to buy in that kind of volume, so they’ve had to put limits on how many cases you can buy at one time. Well, that’s a little worrisome. It means that latecomers are going to have to get by with far fewer rounds. The good news is that shooters who are good enough shots will still have the capacity to kill many dozens of their fellow citizens. That will help.

Thursday, April 23

Statewide: 83 deaths, 2,127 cases out of 43,976 tested  (Deaths: +5) (Cases: +68)

Friday, April 24

Statewide: 86 deaths, 2,177 cases out of 45,492 tested  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +50)

As of April 18, total COVID deaths in the U.S. were 24,555. That’s a rate of .07 per thousand, which is roughly equivalent to one death for every 14,000 Americans. If we assume that the pandemic is half over, we can expect the final toll to be one out of every 7,000 Americans. If we assume that the pandemic is only one third over, it would be one in 5,000. If the pandemic is now only one fourth over, it would be about one in 3,500. Also as of 4/18, roughly 93% of deaths have occurred in people age 55 and older. 

Saturday, April 25

Statewide: 87 deaths, 2,253 cases out of 47,377 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +76)

Made excursions today to Trader Joe’s–for apricots, avocados and champagne–and to the liquor store–for tonic and gin. M went early in the day and found conditions uncrowded with no noticeable shortages. The liquor store has protective barriers at the checkout counter and is also enforcing a policy of only five customers in the shop at any one time. Annoyingly, though, they are still using an antiquated credit card system that requires one to pick up a pen and sign a piece of paper. 

Lovely weather in the afternoon. E did weeding, especially in the area near the window from which we usually view our back garden, which was looking a little shaggy. M mowed lawn and spread some mulch. At dinner, M and E noticed a man stopping in front of our house to look at E’s little corner plot and then pulling out his phone to take a picture of it. As it happens, E got some of her ideas for making the plot by doing the same thing–taking pictures of plants and arrangements that she admired while out walking. So the beat goes on. After dinner we went to the store and got cake, by golly.

Sunday, April 26

Statewide: 91 deaths, 2,311 cases out of 48,964 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +58)

Sunday night we watched Call the Midwife, which is always sweet, compassionate and positive. But that view of the world was shattered when we followed it with some of our Turkish soap opera and got terrible news. Elif is in jail! And even Sami is powerless to help her! Ömer is losing control and keeps trying to pick fights with anyone handy, even though his bullet wounds are not healing properly and he could well lose the use of his left arm permanently if he does not take better care of himself. Nilüfer, Elif’s younger sister, is still agonizing about Fatih, the psychotic with the mesmerizing eyes, with whom she fell in love after he kidnapped her and held her captive for weeks as part of an extortion plot, and who earned her love by renting movies for her to watch, providing her with popcorn, and violently delivering her from the lecherous intentions of one of the henchmen who were guarding her. She now realizes how awful he is and she’s trying to stay away from him…even though she still loves him and is actually married to him in some kind of quasi-legal Turkish way. 

Elif also has an older sister, Aslı, who has always had mental issues and who has recently lost both her husband and her mother. Aslı has been better lately, though, and has been so looking forward to a baby on the way. But in fact she is not really pregnant because her mother bribed a doctor friend to sedate her and give her an abortion. Aslı does not remember this, but Elif has known about it for a while and just before she is arrested and taken off to jail she finally manages to tell Aslı the truth. Or at least part of the truth…in fact Elif also knows something else that Aslı does not remember, which is that right after the abortion Aslı found out what her mother had done. She confronted her mother, they fought, and Aslı gave her mother a shove which caused her to fall and hit her head on a piece of marble, which was, of course, the reason that the girls’ mother so recently passed away. A few months before that, the girls’ father also died, shot and killed by persons unknown… 

And those are just the issues on one side of this grand romance. Maybe we can get to Ömer’s side another day. Black Money Love is the title, which in Turkish is Kara Para Aşk. It’s on Netflix, in Turkish with English subtitles. There are 164 stylish but slow moving episodes, 45 minutes each. We’re at episode 76, I believe, which is a really depressing one. How will they ever get out of this?

Wednesday, April 15 

Statewide: 58 deaths, 1,663 cases out of 33,351 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +0)

FaceTime tertulia at 9:00 with J and R. They’re fine, enjoying the birds at their feeders on their deck. E took a long walk and worked many hours in the garden. M was outside a bit, but is now trying to go into more of a resting phase. He did finish rereading  Beautiful Losers, a Leonard Cohen novel. Pretty wild, exhausting really. This novel is the source of the song/poem ‘Magic is Afoot’ that is included on my old Buffy St. Marie album. That, at least, is a wonderful piece of work.

Pam Popper is on about over-reporting again. Says there’s a doctor in Michigan or somewhere who was required to list COVID19 on the death certificate of a man who tested positive and who was then struck and killed by a bus. Hmm. Don’t know if it’s really true, but it’s a good story. In general, there seems to be much more awareness now that counting COVID19 deaths and cases is complex and that the process is stubbornly imperfect. Pundits are even wondering “Is it possible that the Chinese deliberately underreported their death numbers?” Oh golly!

Thursday, April 16

Statewide: 64 deaths, 1736 cases out of 34,938 tested  (Deaths: +6) (Cases: +73)

Another quiet day. Some garden work and E had an exercise class via Zoom. Besides playing video games and watching YouTube, M attacked the Xfinity/Comcast monster and tried to get a lower rate for our internet service. He thinks he has achieved a reduction but only, of course, for the next 12 months.

Friday, April 17

Statewide: 70 deaths, 1,785 cases out of 36,321 tested  (Deaths: +6) (Cases: +122)

Grocery shopping in the morning at M of C during senior hours (7-8 a.m.) Very much the wrong time to go! Too crowded. 8:00 or 9:00 would be better. Got what we needed, though, so can’t complain too much. The shopping itself is one thing; once we arrive home the decontamination process is another major nuisance. But the meals are pretty good around here. The dinner was built around M’s chicken curry and E’s raita featuring fresh mint from the backyard. Yum.

J and R biked down to see us, delivering a book that E wants to read and staying for a while to chat in the back yard at a suitable distance. We talked about how nice it would be to have a test that confirmed that one had had the disease. One of their sons is in the medical field and he has been almost hoping to get the virus–most people’s symptoms are minor–because once he recovered he could continue his work without concern for himself or for others.

An OSU group is planning to do random testing of 1,000 Corvallis residents to try and find out how many cases there really are and especially how many individuals are infected without showing symptoms. Sounds like a plan. 

Saturday, April 18

Statewide: 72 deaths, 1,844 cases out of 37,583 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +59)

Justin Lessler, a professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, was interviewed by the New Yorker. In response to a question about how we might be able to determine how many asymptomatic cases there really are, Lessler replied: 

“Asymptomatic” is a squirrely concept and what we really mean here is “not detected and likely not detectable.” If you look at the shape of the epidemic curves, it is hard to explain them if children are not contributing to transmission at all, and if asymptomatic younger people are not contributing to transmission at all.

So eventually we’ll be able to infer something about what percentage of young people are/were carriers, but we will most likely never know whether any one individual young person is/was a carrier or not. Okay, fine. But also, yes, squirrely is the word. I wonder how the group planning the random testing in Corvallis sees the detectability issue. 

The news from China yesterday was that the Wuhan area death toll has been adjusted upward by about 1,300. Keeping in mind that neither the old number nor the new number is necessarily  accurate, this is still interesting. On the one hand, China is seeking here to boost its credibility, which is in tatters. On the other, it could be taken as an admission that the accurate numbers have been difficult to come by, probably partly due to inherent counting difficulties and partly due to heavy massage at various levels. Thus the announcement serves as a warning to their friends not to take any of their public statistics too seriously.

Sunday, April 19

Statewide: 74 deaths, 1,910 cases out of 39,038 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +66

We’ve just heard from a friend in Spain who gave us some insight about what conditions are like in the Madrid area. L and her husband have food delivered to their garage by their son. They are allowed to leave their house only twice a day and only for the purpose of walking their dog. These walks must be limited in duration and not take them more than 200 yards from their home. The fine for violating the restrictions is 600 euros. The government has just recently relaxed the general lockdown orders so as to allow parents to take young children outside for a short period each day, provided that they wear masks and gloves and respect social distances. This relaxation, however, is controversial with many believing that it is premature. L’s son is a Madrid firefighter and first responder. Needless to say, he would much rather be fighting fires than performing some of the tasks that he has faced during this crisis. L also reports that the world of politics is very much business as usual. Many politicians seem much more concerned with scoring points as opposed to actually working to solve common problems. That sounds familiar.

E and M no longer have a dog, but they still leave the house almost every day for short periods. Some public walking trails are open, but we avoid these as we hear that they are very crowded. Often we just walk around our neighborhood, but sometimes we drive to some other neighborhood and walk around there for a while before driving back home. The spring blossoms are in their glory and on many residential streets we can find lovely front gardens to admire. We don’t wear our masks on these walks. We see a few other walkers and those few are easy to avoid. Of those other walkers that we do see, perhaps a third are wearing masks; the majority are not. 

At other times we go out into situations that require interaction with other people. Our big four in this category have been plant nurseries, Home Depot, grocery stores and take-out restaurants. We tend to wear masks in these cases. The nurseries are the least stressful, as they are spacious and uncrowded, with traffic flow systems that have been adapted for the crisis. We get a sterilized cart as we enter and then wander about picking out what we need. We deliver the cart to a check-out station and then retreat behind a roped barrier. The checker comes out and scans our items without touching either cart or plants. The checker then retreats and we re-enter the checkout area to put our credit card into the reader. The reader is set to require no signature and no tapping on any screen–just insert and retrieve. The checker asks if we want a receipt, which we do not. We then take the cart to our car, unload it, and return it to the unsafe cart area where it is re-sterilized before being moved to the safe cart area. Some employees wear masks and some to do not. About 80% of the customers wear masks. The 20% who do not are almost always younger people. There is never any need to come closer than six feet to anyone.

Home Depot is similar in that there is lots of room, but often there are also a lot more people. But HD managers have closed down all but one entrance and staff close that off as well whenever the number of customers inside reaches a certain limit. It stays closed until the store begins to clear. Most people use self-checkout and one downside is that the process requires several taps on a touchscreen, but sterilizing wipes are available at each station. M wears a mask to go to HD, but he is definitely in the minority. Because HD sells bulky items, their self-checkout stations are already widely separated. This contrasts with some grocery stores where the stations are very close together. Pam Popper mentions this as one of the insanities of grocery shopping in Ohio. Maybe just turn off every other station? 

Grocery stores are the most difficult for us also. In some stores most people are wearing masks; in others most people are not. Some stores have very narrow aisles and, as far as we know, none are controlled for numbers of customers allowed in at one time. We always wear masks and have noticed that at least in our favorite store most other customers also wear them. Some staff are masked; some are not. In many stores, a large plastic window now separates the checker from the customer. Credit card readers do not require signatures or screen taps. M is chagrined because he wants to use ApplePay, but face recognition fails if he is wearing a mask! How is that fair? In general, M finds that wearing a mask creates more personal stress than it removes.

Maintaining distance from other shoppers is usually possible but requires effort and attention. Our friend Mrs H reports that her favorite grocery now has one-way aisles. Sounds sensible. The pace of things is inevitably slow however. You know how irritating it is when you want to get a cucumber and you can’t because the person standing in front of the cucumbers is taking a ridiculous amount of time trying to pick one? It’s much worse now because not only can you not access the cucumbers, you can’t access anything anywhere within 6 feet of the cucumbers! Also, grocery shopping is now more expensive. In normal life, we shop at several different stores, mainly because we know which items are cheaper at which places. Lately, though, we have been paying full price at the expensive store for the sake of convenience and safety. 

For take-out food, we either call or order online, pre-paying by card in each case and including a large tip. We usually pick-up rather than having the order delivered. The best restaurants tell you to call when you arrive in the parking lot so that one of them can bring your order out to your car. But some still expect you to come inside and wait there along with some number of other customers. We will be avoiding this latter type. The hassle with take-out is that we have to assume that the outside of the container may be contaminated. That can be dealt with, but it’s work.

We filled the car with gas today. M did not wear a mask while pumping but noticed that the two other people getting gas were wearing them. And they were both younger than he! Will wonders never cease. M did wash his hands after, or so he claims.

Monday, April 20

Statewide: 75 deaths, 1,956 cases out of 40,045 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +46)

Thankfully, the number of COVID deaths in Oregon remains fairly low. We feel fortunate–at least so far. To see how fortunate we are, we could try to figure out how Oregon is doing compared to other regions. We see a lot of “death rate” numbers in the media. But these numbers are peculiar. Most of the time, it appears that these numbers are derived by dividing the number of deaths in an area by the number of confirmed cases in an area. If we did this for Oregon, using the numbers above, we would divide 75 by 1,956, giving a result of 3.83%. Also by this method the ‘death rate’ for Italy now approaches 10%. But if we want to know how severe this pandemic is, the confirmed case number is not what we want. That number depends on how many tests have been done and is influenced by the fact that most of those tested are from the most high risk groups: older people and health care workers. This is as it should be, but it means that the numbers cannot be used even to estimate the total number of actual infections, which is really what we need to know. 

Two basic question that we might ask are these: How widespread is this disease? If I get the virus, how likely am I to die? If we knew the answers, we could make a decision about how much we should be worried and what level of emergency restrictions seem justified. Unfortunately these questions are not answerable at this point and possibly never will be answered with certainty. (Researchers will be able to estimate the total number of infections and lots of smart people are attempting to do that even now. But at least for the moment, the various estimates are wildly inconsistent.) What it comes down to is that if anyone tries to tell you exactly how dangerous this virus is by comparing confirmed cases to deaths, that person is confused. 

So if we can’t know what percentage of infections are fatal because we don’t know how many infections there are, is there anything we can know for sure? Well, one thing we can do is compare the cumulative number of deaths in an area with the total population of that area. That, after all, is the bottom line. For Oregon, as of April 20, that would be 75 deaths divided by 4,301,000 total population. For New York City it would be 10,367 deaths divided by 8,398,000 total population. For Italy it would be 24,648 deaths divided by 60,462,000 total population. Here are those results, expressed as percentages:

Oregon .00174%         

NYC .12344%

Italy .04076%

These numbers are a little easier to understand if they are restated in terms of deaths per one thousand inhabitants:

Oregon   .0174

NYC 1.2344

Italy   .4076

These numbers are accurate as of April 20. As the cumulative death toll rises, the numbers above will also rise. Daring to peer into the future, it seems possible that all these numbers will double or triple before we’re finally done. If all the numbers above were to simply triple, the virus would end up killing roughly 4 out of every 1,000 people in New York, roughly 1.2 out of every 1,000 people in Italy and roughly 1 out of every 2,000 people in Oregon.

Tuesday, April 21

Statewide: 78 deaths, 2,002 cases out of 41,128 tested  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +46) With three new deaths reported, the Oregon death rate as calculated by the total population method rises from .0174 per thousand to .0181 per thousand. 

The media today are reporting a study that indicates that 95% of COVID deaths are associated with underlying (pre-existing) medical conditions. Of course this fans the flames of those who believe that general lock-downs do more harm than good and that we should instead be focusing all our efforts on those we know are most vulnerable–whatever that might mean. 

Meanwhile, Michael has managed to make four jars of pickled vegetables: his favorite mix of cucumbers, bell peppers, hot peppers, green beans, and carrots. A crisis arose when in the midst of the process he discovered that the beautiful organic carrots that he had plucked from the bin in the grocery store had somehow never made it into the vegetable bin of our refrigerator. Nor could he find them anywhere in the house, garage or car. He had to run back to the store and try again, not something you want to be doing in times like these! Another unsolved mystery from the year of the virus…

Saturday, February 29

E attends a fundraiser in Portland, stays overnight there and returns to Corvallis on Sunday.

Wednesday March 4

E and M have their weekly breakfast meet-up with their friends J and R. Everyone seems fine.

Friday, March 6

E visits Urgent Care at the Corvallis Clinic. She’s had a sore throat and is generally feeling rotten. She’s worried she might have the virus. She thinks she may have caught it from someone at the fundraiser. The doctor tells her that he can see a canker sore on the back of her throat and that she does not have the virus. He gives her a prescription for some gel she is supposed to use to coat her throat–but she can’t figure out how to make it work. She takes Ibuprofen, which works fine.

Tuesday, March 10

E and M leave for a long-planned one-week trip to Death Valley. This seems a bit risky, but they figure they can sneak it in before things get too bad. E still has a sore throat, but it seems to be abating. At around this time, she feels good enough that she stops taking the Ibuprofen. 

Thursday, March 12

Eve now feels fine, no sore throat. She goes on a seven-mile hike. 

Monday, March 16

On their way home from Death Valley, M and E stop for the night in Susanville, CA. They try to have dinner at a brew-pub they’ve heard of but find out that all bars have been ordered to close. The have dinner at a pizza place instead. 

Tuesday, March 17

In the morning M and E find out that four inches of snow has fallen overnight and snow is still falling. They also learn that all restaurants have been ordered to close. They are able to get a take-out breakfast, and then head north through the snow toward Oregon and home. At about three in the afternoon, M mentions that he has kind of a raw throat.

Wednesday, March 18

Home in Corvallis, M and E have a “virtual tertulia” via FaceTime with their friends J and R,  who report that they both have “colds” but are basically fine.

Wednesday, March 18 to Monday, March 23

M continues to have a mild to moderate sore throat. At one point he seems to have a mild fever and takes an ibuprofen. But mostly he feels fine. Though somewhat less energetic than usual, he feels good enough to continue working in the garden and going on exercise walks. It seems possible, even probable, that whatever caused E’s sore throat also caused M’s sore throat. It’s not clear where E caught it, but seems likely that M caught it from E. But what was/is it?

Tuesday, March 24

M’s throat is worse today, and his sinuses are stuffed up. No runny nose, no cough, no fever. Oregon Governor Brown has imposed mandatory closures on a number of business types, mostly places that involve concentrations of people or places where six-foot separation is not feasible: gyms, bars, party venues, barbershops, nail and hair salons, theaters, arcades, aquariums, museums, etc. Day care operations must be limited to no more than 10 children and must give priority to parents who are health care workers or first responders. M and E were happy to see that there was no blanket shutdown. Hardware stores, nurseries, craft stores, gas stations, take-out restaurants, and may other businesses are still allowed to be open. Jewelry stores must be closed, but are allowed to deliver items curbside. E and M are pleased that plant nurseries will be open. 

M checks in with Pamela Popper, an Ohio doctor and YouTuber who is a fierce critic of the medical establishment. Today she doubles down on her take about COVID19, which is that the whole thing is overblown by people who want us to be as fearful as possible so that they can get as much of our money as possible. And she is suspicious of China. She is especially suspicious that China now seems to be past the crisis and on the mend. She suggests that maybe the Chinese released the virus on purpose to weaken us. 

Well, I’m on board with the idea that this ‘pandemic’ is a bonanza for the U.S. medical businesses, who have again and again shown themselves to be greedy and amoral. But it’s more than that. None of their manipulations would work on us if we weren’t already afraid. Fear is a cultural illness and our culture has had it for many years now. It weakens us, and as we weaken, the predators among us rejoice. 

As for the China thing, I don’t know. Why wouldn’t China, who was hit first, also be the first place to begin to get past it? Is this really a surprise? China is a modern, rich, authoritarian state whose citizens do what they are told–seemingly a recipe for success in surmounting any epidemic. And if we’re going to be paranoid, does no one stop to think that we only have their word for it that China has even passed the crisis? The number of people who seem to casually accept the official Chinese numbers is mind-boggling. As for them attacking us on purpose somehow…well I don’t know. It’s not impossible. But this sounds like a desperate search for a simple answer to a complex question. Not very helpful.

Wednesday, March 25

Statewide in Oregon, the numbers are 210 confirmed cases and a total of 8 deaths. No deaths of young people.

M is somewhat better, throat a little less sore, sinuses less stuffy. E and M are planning to attend a virtual cocktail party on Thursday via Zoom. E is doing a Zoom yoga class this morning. 

Also on the docket for today is a visit to the grocery store. We want to minimize the number of trips to the store, so the pressure is on to not forget anything. Stores are scheduling special shopping hours for seniors, but we’re not sure how much that helps. At Market of Choice it’s 7 to 8 in the morning on Fridays. Hmm. We’ll probably try early afternoon today instead. The question is where to go. We have got in the habit of visiting several different stores to get various items. That seems like an unnecessary luxury now. We’ll have to pick one. In the news we see that some grocery stores are hanging ‘sneeze barriers’ between checkers and customers. A few days ago we saw such barriers already installed at a liquor store. 

All nearby outdoor recreation areas were so crowded over the weekend that six-foot separation was impossible. All state and university forests have therefore been closed. We wonder about the national forests, but no hiking for M anyway at this point.

Thursday, March 26

Statewide: 257 cases and 10 total deaths. (Deaths: +2) (Cases +47)  Everyone counts case numbers, which is a little odd since that number is a function of test availability and testing priority and may have little relation to actual number of infections. Still, it’s a number.

M continues to have a mild sore throat, no other symptoms. Two virtual social sessions today, one with J and R in the morning via FaceTime, another with J and B for cocktails via Zoom. E went grocery shopping at Winco at around 2:00 pm. Very crowded. Six feet of separation impossible with no one seeming much concerned. Very unpleasant and seemingly quite dangerous. E cut shopping short and left. Will try a different store or perhaps a different time. We discovered that the Patissier is operating a weekly takeout service, order by Thursday noon, pick up from 10 to 12 on Friday. E ordered us four pain au chocolat.

Friday, March 27

Statewide: 11 total deaths, 316 cases of 7,269 tested. (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +59)

E did a Zoom-mediated yoga class from upstate New York taught by her old friend Suzanne. Had a few network problems but all in all it went well. Minor crisis later as E tried to weasel out of going to pick up the pastries. After discussion, it was decided that yes it would be safe–or at least worth the very, very low risk–to walk over the bakery and interact just enough to make the transfer. $12.80 cash only and E forewent the two dimes in change. The protocol for bringing them in was for E to come in the house, dump the pastries onto a clean plate and then discard the bag they came in, then wash her hands, then place the pastries in clean containers to be stored. Stored? What is stored? M’s protocol was to eat one as soon as decently possible. 

Saturday, March 28

Statewide: 12 total deaths, 414 cases  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +98)

M seems somewhat improved, almost symptom free. (Says that when he wakes up at 3:00 in the morning, he feels great, but then not quite so great in the daytime.) He is still self-isolating, which left E to do some shopping. She went to Market of Choice and had a much better experience there than at Winco. Huge difference in spacing, with fewer customers, almost all of whom were careful to keep the recommended 6 feet of separation. (Yes, we do live in a class delineated society. You don’t have to be super rich to shop at MofC, but you can’t be poor.) E spent close to $100, but got quite a lot of what we had decided that we needed/wanted. Good selection of veg/fruit, both fresh and frozen. No Kleenex, though, and no Clorox or any other household disinfectants. 

The plan for dinner was take-out. But from whom? We first tried Koriander. At some point they had announced that they would be open for take-out, but today they did not answer their phone. We next tried Evergreen. M made an order on-line and cooked rice while E picked it up. E reported a very unpleasant pickup experience. The order wasn’t ready when scheduled and she was expected to sit around in the restaurant with many other customers who were in the same boat. In the end the food was good and all was well except that the orders included rice. Now have plenty of rice. (Also plenty of uncooked rice, about five pounds. We could live on that for a long time.)     

Sunday, March 29

Statewide: 13 total deaths, 479 cases of 19,172 tested.  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +65) *Case and testing data as printed in the Gazette-Times, which is not consistent with the Oregon Health Authority.

The paper today says that Novak’s is open! They’re way over in Albany, but never mind that. We will definitely give them a try for take-out. M continues to have very mild sore throat.

Monday, March 30

Statewide: 16 total deaths, 606 cases of 12,883 tested.  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +58) **Case and testing data for today and following are from OHA web site. 

Tuesday, March 31

Statewide: 18 total deaths, 690 cases of 13,826 tested.  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +84)

Went for a walk today on the OSU campus, saw the cactus behind Withycombe. Beautiful. Later, E braved the Corvallis downtown to buy us a box of chocolates from Burst’s and a new jigsaw puzzle from Grass Roots Books. But now we’re afraid to touch either one. Hmm. 

Wednesday, April 1

Statewide: 19 deaths, 736 cases of 14,868 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +46)

Did a FaceTime call with J and R this morning. The younger generation of their family are all working, three from home, one still at the workplace.

Visited Garland Nursery in a moderate rain. Got a ninebark for along the east fence next to the clematis and a replacement tree for Hummock #1. E got a couple of hens and chicks for the bed just outside our viewing window. M later went to Bi-Mart for some planting mix. While there he checked the toilet paper aisle. Zilch. Still some paper towels though, and also a new shipment of bleach. 

Around 3:30 in the afternoon the sun came out and M went out and planted. Very squishy out there. E is sorting old scrap books. Next up, it’s take-out dinner day. Since Wednesday is E’s day to cook, she chooses the source.

Thursday, April 2

Statewide: 21 total deaths, 826 cases of 16,085 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +90)

Grocery shopping today at the Co-op. Not the best place under these conditions because of the narrow aisles, but not too crowded at 9:30 on a Thursday. Got what we needed, including a pound of hamburger produced in Philomath! Yo. Finally broke into the box of Burst’s chocolates. Nice. Long walk around the neighborhood, up Garryanna and down Forest Green or whatever. Found the short cut that Kathleen told E about the other day. 

Friday, April 3

Statewide: 22 total deaths, 899 cases of 17,434 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +73)

Both deaths and cases continue to increase steadily–but not exponentially. Early days?

E walked over to Helen’s house and sat on her back patio while Helen stayed in behind the sliding door and they talked to each other by cell phone. Must have been okay as they talked for about an hour. M went out in the blue car through Philomath to Eddyville, then back via Summit. Take-out dinner from El Palenque. All public transactions are weird and stressful, but people are mostly pleasant. E also did two exercise classes today. Suddenly everyone is offering Zoom mediated fitness classes. Some start out free as everyone tries to get the hang of it, then change over to fee-based, which is sensible. Busy day for E as she also made a short video to send to Elisa to be used for Margy’s upcoming virtual birthday celebration.

Saturday, April 4

Statewide: 26 total deaths, 999 cases of 18,925 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +100)

Are the curves steepening a little?

Walked in the MLK Park area, into some of the new luxury housing there, then into the older new stuff on Maser on the other side of Walnut. Then gardening and later M made a quick visit to Market of Choice. Moderately busy, but well-organized. Got some rhubarb to supplement our homegrown supply. Pie is on the menu for tomorrow! E did some sewing. At dinner, a minor crisis: no relish for our hot dogs! The people who stock our larder are slippin’. Later, the plan is for puzzle work followed by an episode of Kara Para Ask (Black Money Love). Finished the new puzzle. Beautiful.

Sunday, April 5

Statewide: 27 total deaths, 1,068 cases of 20,624 tested (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +69)

Curve not steepening.

Walked around the neighborhood south of us on the other side of Circle. Worked a little in the yard. Nice warm sunny afternoon. E picked rhubarb and is at the moment in the process of making a pie. The plan is for a light supper, then pie and TV. 

Monday, April 6

Statewide: 29 total deaths, 1,132 cases out of 21,801 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +64)

Last night’s pie was fantastic. Yum. Delivered some to Bobbye and Blair. Watched Call the Midwife and Kara Para. In the latter, Elif and Ömer spent the night together! Whoa! Thought that might not happen for another couple dozen episodes. Today is cleaning day. Like last time, M cleaned his bathroom and did dusting and vacuuming. E did her bathroom and kitchen, including scrubbing the kitchen floor. She said she was going to do the floor on her hands and knees–cuz that’s what Mrs. Hopper does–and she may well have done. But unfortunately there are no independent witnesses. M later went to Home Depot and found some filters that might possibly be useful in making masks. 

Tuesday, April 7

Statewide: 33 total deaths, 1,181 cases out of 23,007 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +49)  

Trip to the nursery today, got heather, ground cover and some shade shrubs for the back corner. M planted heather and made his neck sore. It makes him grouchy. He’s trying an ibuprofen. E made masks! The first pattern, made from on internet circulated message, gave the wearer a pig snout! Yikes. We don’t want to wear pig snouts. No one else is wearing pig snouts. E continues to experiment with different patterns and styles and already has done a couple of much better versions. Masks are an issue. As more and more people wear them, it will become odd not to. Well, it can’t hurt and helps as signal for people to keep their distance. Around town so far, masks are not the norm, but they are getting more common. Maybe 20-30% of people in the stores? Not sure. But numbers are growing.

M has been looking for statistics on flu deaths in previous years for comparison to this year. Very depressing. Statistics are not nearly as simple as they would have us believe (with they being greedy drug companies on the one hand, and well-meaning vaccine advocates on the other.) It turns out that accurate counts are difficult to make, difficult to collect, and subject to manipulation by people who have agendas. 

Counting flu deaths may sound simple, but it isn’t. First, what exactly is being counted? What is a flu death? In many cases of “flu deaths” doctors don’t actually just write “flu” on the death certificate and call it good. Instead, the doctor will write something like “cold and flu symptoms followed by pneumonia” “complications resulting from flu-like infection” or “heart failure after contracting flu” or “severe flu symptoms with weakened immune system” and many, many others. Plus, only a certain percentage of people who die of “the flu” are actually tested for flu. So even if the death certificates contains the word ‘flu’ no one knows whether the flu was proven or merely presumed. What is one to do with such data? We know that a person died, and we know that the person had flu-like symptoms and then developed pneumonia and died. But is that a flu death or a pneumonia death? If a person is already seriously ill and expected to die and then gets the flu and dies sooner, which illness is the crucial one? Hard to say. 

As it happens, the CDC has for many years issued guidelines about how to deal with this problem. Tacitly acknowledging that ‘death from flu’ is a very difficult thing to classify, they have stopped reporting that particular statistic. Instead they report a different statistic: flu-related deaths. This sounds the same, but it isn’t. It is defined as any death from illness of whatever kind in any case where the patient showed flu symptoms within three weeks prior to dying. This is much more measurable, but it’s awfully fuzzy.

Ah, but this new statistic has some special advantages. It is a kind of estimate, but it is the highest possible estimate, which is just what most of the really interested parties want. Releasing the highest possible estimate will create the most concern (fear) among the general public. Hence it is the number that is most useful to those who are trying to convince people to take flu vaccines. The CDC, for whatever reason, has consistently issued these counts of flu-related deaths, knowing full well that the general public will assume that “flu-related” is the same as “killed by flu.” Going even further along that line, the CDC have regularly suggested that “under-reporting” means that the true number is probably much higher. (So get those shots!)

Are there similar reporting issues with COVID19 deaths? I would expect so. The race is on to develop a COVID19 vaccine. It’ll be a huge seller. Somebody will make a lot of money. And they’ll make more money the higher the count. This is not to say that COVID19 is not serious. Not at all. But the story is complex and we need to be aware that, just like medical grade masks, accurate information is in short supply.

Wednesday, April 8

Statewide: 38 total deaths, 1,239 cases out of 24,564 tested  (Deaths: +5) (Cases: +58)

Did FaceTime with J and R this morning. Their kids have forbidden them to go to the grocery store, so they have to place their orders and the kids deliver. Nice in a way, but complicated. What if you forget something? Kids probably don’t want to be making deliveries too often. E has ordered some pastries from the Patissier for Friday. Yum. M did some planting and mowed the lawn front and back. Before that, though, M and E started up Helen’s dead car by standing near it and poking around a little. Odd.

Thursday, April 9

Statewide: 44 total deaths, 1,321 cases out of 25,627 tested  (Deaths: +6) (Cases: +81)

Six new deaths reported today, the highest daily number so far.

M went to Home Depot (again!) without incident. E made a successful visit to Bi-Mart, but had a harrowing experience in the candy aisle. She waited until there was only one other person in the aisle and then entered from one end. She was about ten feet away from another woman, who, frustratingly enough was standing the in part where the best Easter candy was. E was browsing, basically just waiting for the other woman to be finished, when suddenly the woman sneezed. Yikes! Call 911! Well, maybe not. She was, after all wearing a mask, as was E. 

Pamela Popper continues to decry the hysteria and the overblown response. She thinks it was stupid to close schools and universities and that deaths from negative effects of the shutdown will far exceed lives saved by the shutdown. Look at alcohol sales, she cries, liquor stores and grocers report that sales are nearly double what they were last year during this season. All this extra drinking will cost thousands of lives! But wait a second. Do these extra retail sales really indicate increased overall consumption? Might there be another alcohol sales channel where there has been a correspondingly massive decline in consumption? I think there might. 

Friday, April 10

Statewide: 48 total deaths, 1,371 cases out of 27,224 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +50)

M made two grocery visits today, one to Market of Choice, one to Trader Joe’s, both during senior hours. No problems. Our process for sanitation of grocery items is functioning smoothly. More and more people are wearing masks these days, especially at TJ’s. M wants to start wearing one so as to fit in better. E has presented him with a new improved model with velco fasteners on the straps. (Elastic might be best, but elastic is in short supply!) E did online yoga with one of her favorite teachers; Helen was in the class. E and M both did garden work, E planting marigolds and M working on his Rube Goldberg drip irrigation system. 

Saturday, April 11

Statewide: 51 total deaths, 1,584 cases out of 28,638 tested  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +76)

Take-out from Novak’s in Albany. First time in over a year for us to have any of their food. The chicken soup was pretty bad, the potatoes were so-so, everything else was wonderful. Quite a lot of traffic on a Saturday afternoon in Albany. We narrowly escaped an accident on the way home. A car started pulling out fast from a driveway on our left, but the driver finally noticed us and braked while M swerved away. Meanwhile our car insurance premiums are being cut by the company (Liberty Mutual) because since people are driving less there are far fewer accidents and therefore the company is making fewer payouts. And stimulus money arrives soon! We feel we must donate it somewhere. Have to sit down and figure out where.

Sunday, April 12

Easter Sunday and time to sample the chocolate eggs that E obtained from Bi-Mart despite a  sneezing fellow customer in the candy aisle. So we had a couple for breakfast. They’re not very good. Also no good music in the a.m. as Sunday Baroque was replaced by endless organ music. But Easter noontime dinner was wonderful: perfect soufflé, fresh asparagus, French champagne. And then, from the freezer, two servings of Barney’s Blackout cake from the Konditorei, saved since E’s birthday of so many weeks ago. Sublime!

Monday, April 13

Statewide: 53 total deaths, 1584 cases out of 31,121 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +0)

We masked up and went to Shonnard’s this morning for more plants and more irrigation supplies. No problems. Lunch at home, then later got take-out coffees from Coffee Culture on Ninth. Seemed to be just one person working at CC. Passed Starbucks earlier, the drive-through line looked to be about 10 cars long. After coffee, sat down to do some charitable giving: Linn Benton Foodshare, Stone Soup, and Benton Community Foundation. 

Tuesday, April 14

Statewide: 58 total deaths, 1,633 cases out of 32,363 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +49)

Much gardening. Beautiful sunny day. Our neighbors Scott and Jo have given us two very good looking peonies and M wanted to get those in the ground. E delivered S and J some iris in return. Then we worked on the new Shonnard’s plants: dianthus, heuchara, and sedum. Plus, M’s ragtag irrigation system is now complete–at least for the moment. Lunch was take-out from Taco Time.

In the afternoon M got absorbed in a lecture on YouTube. It’s a an hour-long talk by an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona named Michael Worobey. It dates from a few years back and describes his study of virus genomes to trace the origins of the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. Amazing stuff. Very good explanation of how a flu virus works, how antibodies work, how immunity works and what it means when a new flu virus variant appears. Provides an explanation for the tragic fact that the 1918 pandemic was more deadly for 20 to 29 year olds than it was for 80 year olds. Side notes include the strong possibility that human activity in World War 1 created the conditions for a particular flu variant to become pandemic and also a bit about the devastating equine flu pandemic of 1872, a year in which one third of urban Boston was destroyed by fire, partially due to the fact that no horses were available to pull the fire equipment. In YouTube, search for The Genesis of the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic.