Oregon Health Authority: deaths 244 (+7) cases 12,805 (+367)
This is the 110th day of our record keeping, so it’s time for another update of our Oregon curve graphic, now based on 11 consecutive 10-day averages. As you see, the latest ten-day average is equal to the previous high back in early April. Looks like a second wave to us.
Wednesday, July 15
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 247 (+3) cases 311,111 (+276)
Tertulia in our back yard this morning. We baked scones. And because it’s berry season, we filled our scones with luscious semi-sweet chocolate chips. Yum. Later a little yard work, a little sewing, and a little reading. A warm summery day. It was nice to stay indoors for most of the afternoon. We did some searching online and ordered E a stand for her iPad mini. She’s been doing a lot of Zooming of one kind or another and her cobbled together holder had finally failed. For dinner E arranged take-out from Ba’s in Albany. Ba’s is run by a wonderful young couple who offer what they call Vietnamese comfort food. It’s delicious. After dinner we watched a little of our Turkish soap, but then moved on to a new jigsaw puzzle.
Thursday, July 16
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 249 (+2) cases 13,509 (+428, new Oregon record)
Nice day, definitely summer. Errands and a short hike in the morning: first Bottle Drop, then the Shell station, thence up the road to the Calloway Creek trail. It was still cool in the forest in the late morning. After the hike M donned his gloves, picked up some cutters, and went out to our sprawling blackberry bush to see if he could bring it under some semblance of control. It’s a native variety, very thorny, one that is used to surviving in hostile conditions. In the relatively benign environment of our garden it becomes very enthusiastic, sending out ridiculously healthy new canes in all directions, including up over the fence, where it could threaten the physical safety and mental tranquility of the entire neighborhood. Hence, action was required.
Friday, July 17
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 254 (+5) cases 13,802 (+293)
Last night we went out around 11:00 to see if we could see the comet Neowise. We knew that we wouldn’t be seeing it from our house because the comet was low on the northern horizon and there are wooded hills just north of us. So we drove to a place where the land was flat to the north and sure enough there it was, dim but visible to the naked eye, and even more visible through E’s binoculars. It was pretty cool. Neither of us could remember when we’d last seen a comet–if ever. Neither of us had been out after eleven for a while either.
Oregon COVID news continues bad with little sign of any impending improvement. Fatalities have now reached 254, a rate of 5.91 per 100,000.
For reference, total Oregon fatalities in the 1918 influenza pandemic totaled 3,675. Oregon’s population at that time was approximately 781,000, which yields a fatality rate of 471 per 100,000. That rate is far higher than any reported figures for COVID anywhere in the world. One explanation for the large differential is that the influenza virus caused its victims to develop a number of fatal secondary infections and conditions for which no treatment was available in 1918. COVID can cause similar secondary problems, but in the intervening 100 years medical science has advanced, and many of these associated conditions can now be managed.
Saturday, July 18
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 257 (+3) cases 14,149 (+319)
M’s birthday looms on the horizon. A birthday present has been ordered and there has been discussion about ordering a pie. Before that, though, we’re having guests over for dinner on Sunday. E is planning another paella, out on the patio of course. And speaking of food, we have now gone more than a week without pain au chocolat. It’s all right. We’re OK. And our take-out meal today was from Sybaris–such a lovely restaurant. E loved her brie and almond croquette over salad greens; M had deviled chicken, which consisted of half a bird, mostly deboned but still in one piece, the whole thing roasted in coarse crumbs. It was served with a salad of warm white and sweet potatoes with fresh arugula, green beans, snap peas, and summer squash, all with a Gubbins sauce dressing. Awesome. Has M now fallen in love with Gubbins sauce (made with cream, tarragon vinegar, butter, and English mustard?) No, he has not. But just this once, it was grand.
Sunday, July 19
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 260 (+3) cases 14,579 (+430)
As we continue documenting the pandemic, here’s a photo showing two different consumer items that are all the rage these days. First, jigsaw puzzles. Everyone from NPR to WSJ has noted the jigsaw puzzle shortage. Puzzle makers cannot keep up with demand. “We have never seen anything like this,” said one manager. “Oh my God, how could we have been prepared for this?” asked another. Both of those comments translate as “If only we’d stockpiled 500,000 more units, we’d be rolling in it!” E and M have contributed to the surge in demand, having bought this puzzle a month or two ago, picking it up curbside from an otherwise closed bookstore. It has turned out to be a good puzzle for us, 1000 pieces and just challenging enough.
And then there is the market for Zoom-related doodads. Plenty of those being purchased. E just got herself this tabletop stand. She found a dizzying selection of stands and holders, but fell in love with this one, partly because it seemed sturdy and flexible and mostly because it was the best looking of the bunch.
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 215 (+0) cases 10,395 (+165)
E did some grocery shopping today and mostly had a good experience–sensible procedures and few other shoppers. She found everything we wanted except one. It seems that the entire Adams natural peanut butter selection has gone missing. There was no creamy, no crunchy, no you stir, no pre-stirred. There was plenty of Jiff, which is sold by the same company as Adams, and plenty of Skippy, but none of the good stuff. Hardly a critical moment in world history, but it’s the kind of thing that’s been happening around here. Last week E was looking for low-sugar recipe pectin. We ended up checking every store in town. They all had regular pectin in the yellow box, but the pink boxes of the low sugar type were nowhere. How about online? Well yes it was there, but at three times the usual price. Bleh. Very annoying at berry picking time.
Speaking of shopping, we remember back at the beginning–oh so many months ago–we were all told to stay home and to minimize our trips to the grocery store, especially if we were over sixty. We were supposed to grocery shop just once every two weeks.. We have to confess that we never managed that. We did stop going shopping together as we used to. Now we take turns going alone. But the longest we ever lasted between store visits was a week and now we’re much worse. It seems to us, however, that around here it’s not just about how often you go, it’s also about when and where. A crowded store seems like an outbreak waiting to happen even if you go into it only once. A well-managed store when it’s mostly empty seems very different and doesn’t really scare us. E’s experience today was typical. She went at ten in the morning on a Monday, got in and out quickly, and was never closer than eight or ten feet to anyone except the checker who was behind a barrier.
Tuesday, July 7
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 220 (+5) cases 10,605 (+210)
Today was M’s turn to go grocery shopping. Both TJ’s and Mother of Markets were almost empty between 9:00 and 10:00 and everyone he saw was masked. The haul? Wine and dried fruit from Trader Joe’s, fresh vegetables, canned soup and two take-and-bake baguettes from the other place.
Later M also had to go to the hardware place–again–because it turns out that when he went the first time he had not bought enough cedar for his footstool project. He realized this only when he was staining the component pieces that he had cut out and sanded. During that process he was able to determine, by means of counting, that he had not provided his stool with a sufficient number of legs. Kuçuk problem vardı. E, with her unreasonably high standards, would likely object to using a two-legged stool.
In the evening, there was more Turkish TV. Remember how Umut jumped off the jetty and everyone–except for a few million television viewers–thought he was dead? The writers brought him back in the very next episode. Jeez.
Wednesday, July 8
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 224 (+4) cases 10,817 (+212)
We met J and R for tertulia this morning at the coffee shop. We sat at a table outside. It was a lovely morning, mild and partly cloudy. What an odd time this is. Everyone puts on a mask just before entering a shop, and then, instead of robbing the place, they pull out credit cards!
Later M worked on his wood project and E spread bark mulch and planted Zinnias. There was leftover paella for dinner. Deluxe.
E made an addition to the yard…
…while M was making a mess on the workbench.
Thursday, July 9
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 230 (+6) cases 11,188 (+371)
All bad news today from OHA, lots of new cases, high rate of positives, and the day’s death toll was among the highest ever.
M had two medical appointments in the AM, then went for a drive in the country to unwind. Best driving music of the day was Neil Young and Crazy Horse, Ragged Glory. Loud enough to hear at speed with the top down.
E’s Zoom enabled exercise class did drumming today. Improvised equipment consisted of a drum made from a large cardboard box set up on an upside-down laundry basket. Two wooden spoons served as drumsticks. Great fun. Afterward, Eve, the laundry basket and the spoons were all fine, but the cardboard box–which had underlying health issues–did not survive.
That was in the morning; later she had her first session of Laughter Yoga. She says that it was pretty easy. Just sit in a chair and laugh.
Friday, July 10
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 232 (+2) cases 11,454 (+266)
Saturday, July 11
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 232 (+0) cases 11,851 (+397)
Take-out from Tacovore for dinner. Tacovore is one of the best restaurants for these times: online ordering and curbside pickup. Other good places that we know of include Pastini’s and Burgerville in Corvallis, plus Sybaris and Ba’s in Albany.
Sunday, July 12
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 234 (+2) cases 12,170 (+319)
E and M have both been re-reading West With the Night by Beryl Markham. It’s a wonderful book that is filled with love for and insight into some of her favorite things: Africa, dogs, horses, and airplanes. The book does not deal much with men, but apparently she loved them too. She was married at least three times, though one source reports six. Husband #2 was Mansfield Markham, whose name she took and stuck with. Husband #3 was a journalist who at one point claimed to have written most of West with the Night. Beryl Markham’s biographer, Mary Lovell, is unconvinced. If anyone inspired the book, says Lovell, it would most likely be Antoine de Saint Exupèry, to whom Markham was not married, though they did spend some quality time together. Markham also idled away a certain number of hours in the company of the Duke of Gloucester, the son of King George the 5th. This relationship, so it is said, was broken up by the Windsor family who were so eager for her departure from the scene that they granted Markham an annuity. A few years before that, Beryl had stolen Robert Redford away from Meryl Streep. How many women can say that? Or was it Denys Finch Hatton that she stole from Karen Blixen? Or did she take up with Hatton only after Blixen was done with him? Hard to say from here. The only thing we know for sure is that while Blixen was played by Meryl Streep in Out of Africa, Markham was played by Stephanie Powers in a TV movie called In the Shadow of the Sun. Score one for Blixen there.
But never mind all that. Beryl Markham was, for years, a pioneering aviator in Africa, flying in primitive, and radio-less, machines over uncharted expanses. She was the first person to fly west from Europe to North America–a more difficult feat than Lindbergh’s because she had to fly against the wind. When not flying, she was a successful race horse trainer.
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 208 (+1) cases 7,817 (+275)
Both of us have been reading a book called Something Wonderful. It’s about Richard Rogers and Oscar Hammerstein and the era when they were such a large presence in American musical theatre. We’ve been reminded that their first mega-hit was Oklahoma! in 1943; their last was The Sound of Music, which opened in 1959. In between came Carousel in 1945, South Pacific in 1950 and The King and I in 1952. Because neither of us was very familiar with Carousel, we decided to have a listen to it, and, after a brief argument with Siri, we were able to hear the soundtrack of the 2018 Broadway revival. It turned out that we did recognize one song from the show, or at least one particular line of that song. The song starts like this:
The memorable part comes just a little later:
You can probably guess which line it was that seemed familiar. But something else seemed familiar, too. The song is about spring, something that happens every year in temperate climes, but it also serves nicely as a metaphorical foretelling of the great Pandemic of 2020, at least as it transpired around here. Just add the interpretations in parentheses below:
The song about June goes on for several more verses. One verse is about rams and ewes, one of them is about fish (fish?), one is about human romance, and there’s one more about saplings bursting with sap and suchlike. Great stuff. Something Wonderful is an interesting and thorough book. We lukewarmly recommend it.
Thursday, July 2
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 209 (+1) cases 9,636 (+363)
We’ve finished Episode 12 of our Turkish soap, whose Netflix title is Intersection and whose original Turkish title is Kördüğüm. We naturally thought that kördüğüm was some fancy word for intersection. But it seemed weird. Intersection is a noun, but in Turkish üm is a verb ending. So finally we looked it up, only to find that Kördüğüm does not mean intersection at all and is not a noun. It’s a sentence, and it means ‘I am blind.’ Now you may well be asking, “How can one word in Turkish be a three word sentence in English?” That is of course a very excellent question, so we want to try and answer it, even though it is technically off topic. Alas, even though we kinda know the answer, we are not the best people to ask. What you should do is take some basic Turkish lessons. You can do that online here. In fact, we are looking for two more people to study with, because you need four people to make an actual class, which is much cheaper than private lessons. If you are, for some bizarre reason, interested in this, starting in August, please let us know. We have details on pricing and schedules. We know the instructor and he’s good.
But now back to unreality. How did Netflix get from I Am Blind to Intersection? We don’t know. Does the original title relate to the fact that some of the characters are blind to the machinations of the treacherous evil doers who claim to be their friends? Possibly. For example, we are getting to know a new character named Murat, an old childhood friend of our handsome and good-hearted hero, Ali Nejat. Murat appears very wealthy and wants to help Ali Nejat realize his long held dream of starting up a business to make beautiful cars. Will Ali Nejat accept his help? We sure hope not because at the end of Episode 12 we found out that Murat’s real goal is the total destruction of Ali Nejat and all his dreams. But why?
Meanwhile, Ali Nejat has just spent a lovely and leisurely day alone with Naz at the family dacha in the hills somewhere around Istanbul. This is the first time they’ve ever spent a whole day together and they are both smiling. They were smiling a little bit a week or so back, after Naz separated from Umut. But then Naz found out she was pregnant. The child was Umut’s, of course, because all that Naz and Ali Nejat ever do is smile and look longingly at each other. Given how determined they are to be good, it may be all they ever do. So is Naz still pregnant? No. What happened there is that when Umut heard she was pregnant, he begged and pleaded for another chance and swore that everything would be different. Naz finally sighed and said something like “Okay, but do you know how hard this is going to be?” which turned out to be an understatement. After 24 hours of being the loving husband, Umut freaked out and started throwing things and breaking windows and stormed out. The next day he came back to apologize but ended up yelling at Naz and knocking her down, causing her to have a miscarriage. Not surprisingly, Naz doesn’t want to see him anymore. Ah, but someone else does want to see Umut. The mysteriously evil Murat wants to see Umut. Whatever he is planning, it can’t be good.
Friday, July 3
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 209 (+0 ) cases 9,636 (+342)
As with in many U.S. states, there were lots of new COVID cases in Oregon this week. The daily number of tests continues to increase, so that would explain some of it. But the test positive ratios were also high this week, ranging from 4.63% on Monday to 8.35% on Friday. The overall positive ratio since March 30 is 3.78%.
Saturday, July 4
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 213 (+4 ) cases 9,930 (+294)
It’s been 100 days since the Pandemic Diary began its record keeping. It’s time, then, for the tenth entry to our chart of average daily fatalities per 10-day period. in the first 70 days the daily fatality rate went up, down and back up a little. In the last 30 days it has been essentially unchanged: 1.7, 1.9, and 1.8.
Sunday, July 5
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 215 (+2) cases 10,230 (+301)
Nice visit with Andrea today. She drove down in her new Leaf, which has three or four times the range of her old one. Andy was off fighting wildfires. We had never thought of it before, but of course the 4th of July weekend is one of the busiest times of the season. Andrea says that the fires so far have been small ones, but there are a lot of them.
E made paella for the occasion and we had a COVID protocol dinner outside on the patio. Ice cream and homegrown berries for dessert. Lots of fun for us. Later on we checked in with I Am Blind or whatever it is.
We watched Umut and Naz (left and right in the picture) as they went to court to finalize their divorce. It was an interesting scene with just four people in the room: the judge, the court recorder, Umut and Naz. The divorce was uncontested and they had both already signed off. As a last step they had to appear–without lawyers or any other supporters–and re-affirm orally that each agreed to the divorce. The judge asked each one in turn. Naz said yes without hesitation. She’s too practical to have come all the way downtown just to start waffling in front of the judge. Umit has told her a number of times that he definitely wants a divorce. But, being an idiot, he is mostly saying that because he expects her to beg him to change his mind. It’s not clear whether Naz realizes this or not, but it doesn’t matter at this point. She’s done. When the judge asks Umut the question, we get one of those very long dramatic pauses that are one of the hallmarks of Turkish style soaps. You many think you have seen a dramatic pause or two in your lifetime, but I’m telling you these Turkish ones are at a whole nother level. Anyway, Umut eventually says yes, at which point the judge reads the decree into the official record and the divorce is done. Is that how it really happens in Turkey? We don’t know. We met a few divorced Turkish women while we were there, but we didn’t get into the mechanics. Mostly we just listened to how very pleased they were to have escaped the hell of being married to a Turkish man.
That night Umut started drinking, put an automatic in his pocket and went to Ali Nejat’s house to kill him. He had a good bead on him through a window and then, after a really long pause, into the scene came oh so adorable Kaan to give his dad a goodnight hug. Umut just couldn’t do it. His pistol fell from his hands. He went back to his shop and got some gasoline and then went to Ali Nejat’s fledging car factory and set fire to it. He then finished his bottle, drove his new Range Rover to an extremely picturesque jetty near the Bosphorus bridge, and threw himself into the sea. A surveillance camera recorded the scene. Currents are strong in that area, say the police, and body must have been swept away.
Umut’s family is crying and carrying on and Naz feels terrible. More terrible than she needs to feel, in our opinion, but maybe that’s just us. It’s interesting that everyone seems positive Umut is dead. Don’t they know they’re in a soap opera?
I took the Mazda into the forest last week, following a couple of logging roads from Cascadia, on the Santiam River, up over the hills and down to the Calapooia River. To get there I took Highways 34 and 20 east from Corvallis to a spot about 14 miles east of Sweet Home. There I turned right onto Canyon Creek Road (aka Forest Road 2022) and headed on up into timber country. If you look at a map of this area, the Santiam and the Calapooia don’t seem to be that far apart; and in fact the Calapooia is just 9 miles directly south of Highway 20 if you could travel in a straight line. But there’s a 3,700 ft ridge between the two places, so not even a crow could do a straight line. Instead you have to go up, down, around and sideways and it takes a while. To start with, Road 2022 follows Canyon Creek as it heads upward and to the southeast, a little deeper into the Cascades. Here’s a satellite view of the first part of the route.
You can see the start of Road 2202 just to the left of the US 20 marker. You can catch more glimpses of it as it follows along Canyon Creek downward and to the right all the way to the lower right corner of the photo.
The land to the west of Canyon Creek is mostly privately owned timber land; the area to the east is part of the Willamette National Forest. You can see that there has been a lot more harvesting recently on the private lands. This is not the case everywhere, but it’s clearly happening here.
Road 2022 is gravel, but it is a wide road and the part that I was on was well designed and maintained. It’s a sort of forest freeway, generally wide enough for log trucks coming from opposite directions to get past each other safely, provided the drivers are careful. I met a loaded log truck coming down as I was going up; there was certainly adequate room for us both. So it’s a nice road. Still, it is gravel, it is curvy, and it has log trucks…along with the occasional very narrow bridge–so it’s one of those roads where you don’t go fast at all unless you’re young. I took my time and enjoyed the scenery, which was lovely. Eventually I got to my next waypoint, which was the junction of Road 2022 with Road 2026. Where those two roads meets is also the place where Owl Creek flows into Canyon Creek. From the satellite, the junction looks like this:
In this photo, Canyon Creek flows diagonally from the right side of the photo up to the top center. Owl Creek flows up from the bottom left (near the clearcut) and joins Canyon Creek at the top of the photo. Road 2022 follows Canyon Creek; Road 2026 follows Owl Creak. 2026 is seen here as the narrow curving line near the left edge of the photo. Owl Creek is just to the right of the road and shows here as a thick dark line at the bottom, changing to a semi-open corridor in the upper part near the junction .
Although you can’t see it in the above, the meeting of 2022 and 2026 is a T-junction. Coming up from the Santiam side, I could have turned left at the T and continued on 2022. That would have taken me a few miles higher into the mountains before connecting with Road 1509, which descends into the Blue River drainage. That looked like a fun route to try, but would have been many more hours on poorer quality roads, a bit much for today’s little jaunt. So I turned right at the T onto 2026, which would take me over into the Calapooia drainage. Not long after the junction, the road passed very near a clearcut like the one in the lower left corner of the of satellite photo above. I stopped there to have a snack and take a photo or two.
This was the view to the southwest toward Eugene…
…and this was the view in the other direction, with beargrass blooms in the foreground and a couple of High Cascades peaks far to the east .
I noticed immediately that Road 2026 was not quite the thoroughfare that 2022 had been. For one thing, it was a lot narrower. I met two vehicles coming the other way. Neither was a problem, but we had to pass cautiously, making sure we were at one of the wider points in the road. I did not meet any log trucks, which was good. The road surface was good in most places, but there were several sections with frequent potholes, a few with standing water. Probably most any car could have made it through, even the Boxster, though that wouldn’t have been much fun. The Mazda CX-5 was very adequate; a pickup would have been perfect.
The road kept on climbing, sometimes traversing steep slopes that were so thickly forested that you had to look hard to see how steep they actually were. Here’s a picture of a stream crossing. I’m standing on the downhill side of the road above the culvert that this water has just come through.
For a mile or two the road follows the course of Owl Creek on the western side of Owl Ridge, still climbing. Finally, it took me up over one last hump at about 4,000 feet and started to drop down the other side. That meant that I was out of the Santiam drainage and that all the creeks I passed fed into the Calapooia. After a few downhill miles I started getting glimpses of the river to my left. Up this high, it didn’t look like much, more like a teenage creek that had just barely reached legal age and could now call itself a river. Soon after that I came to another junction, this one with Forest Road 2820, the route that would take me westward toward home.
The squiggle in the center of this photo is Road 2026 as it descends to the level of the Calapooia. The road ends in the lower left of the photo at a junction with Forest Service Road 2820, aka Calapooia River Road, which is the wavy white line that runs across the bottom of the photo. The river is somewhere in the darkly shadowed trees on the south side of 2820.
Once I was onto Calapooia River Road I was headed in the right direction, but I was still some way up into the mountains. It turns out I had about 20 miles of gravel to cover before I got back to the world of pavement. The road was wide (or widish) in most places. The loose gravel surface was noisy and slippery but quite smooth, with no pot holes, ruts, or washboard humps. There was a nice mixture of curves and straights, plus a certain amount of open space on either side, which increased general visibility. I came upon just one other vehicle. It was the kind of road where you can go a little fast even if you aren’t young, as long as you don’t mind a bit of drifting now and again.
After ten minutes or so, the road turned to pavement at Woodraffe. Eventually I met up with Oregon Hwy 228 at Holley and returned to Corvallis via Brownsville, Halsey and Peoria.
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 195 (+3) cases 7,444 (+170)
It has been 90 days now that Pandemic Diary has been tracking the Oregon deaths per day. That means we have a new data point to add to our record of 10-day averages. Here’s what the graph looks like with the new data included.
Comparisons, says Dogberry in Much Ado, are odorous. So hold your nose and let’s begin. It’s a table of reported COVID19 deaths per 100,000 in various places. Just a snapshot at a point in time; not the final score. Data from Johns Hopkins, as of June 24.
Taiwan
.03
Thailand
.08
Australia
.41
New Zealand
.45
Japan
.76
OREGON
4.5
Denmark
10.40
Germany
10.75
Canada
22.97
United States
37.05
France
44.37
Sweden
50.68
Italy
57.38
Spain
60.62
United Kingdom
64.69
Thursday, June 25
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 197 (+2) cases 7,568 (+124)
In the ‘for what it’s worth’ department…The cumulative test positive rate in Oregon since March 30 is 3.5%. It hit a low of 3.19% on June 6, but has been edging upward since then. Here’s a graph.
Friday, June 26
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 201 (+4) cases 7,817 (+249)
We were talking today about the first time we ever saw people wearing masks to cover their mouths and noses. Both of us had seen it first in Japan, M when he lived there in the early 1980’s and E later in the 80’s when she travelled there on business. We both remember thinking it was weird. We knew why people were doing it; they were ill and they didn’t want to spread their illness to others. We knew that Japan was a crowded place, the kind of place where airborne illnesses were easily transmittable. And we were learning about how Japanese culture had a system of group loyalties that Americans didn’t have. It all made sense. And yet, both of us had negative reactions to masks. E thinks that it’s because she had learned that being sick was a sign of weakness. It was something shameful; you certainly didn’t want to announce it to the world. M remembers that too, and he also remembers not wanting to stand out for any reason. He already felt different enough. He says he doesn’t remember if he ever got a cold or the flu while he lived in Japan, but he knows he never wore a mask.
Saturday, June 27
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 202 (+1) cases 8,094 (+277)
We sent to a social gathering today. It was held in the back yard of a friend of ours. Guests went directly to the back around the left side of the house. First there was a small table with hand sanitizer and a selection of very clean and rather attractive masks. Farther around in the back there were more supplies: face shields for every guest, along with a name tag that could affixed to them at the top. Here is a reconstruction of part of that scene.
We had a nice time. M ran into a man who used to run an audio business in Corvallis for many years and from whom M had bought some B&W speakers in 1992. The two guys didn’t exactly remember each other, but they both remembered the speakers.
We ran into another person, a highway engineer, who reported hearing that the number of cell phone accounts in China fell by approximately 21 million during the height of the pandemic there. There is speculation is that the owners of those numbers may simply have died of the virus. Well, maybe, but the Pandemic Diary is unconvinced. We’re okay with the idea that China has vastly underreported its COVID deaths. Of course it has. That’s how Asia works. But this idea of using phone account data to measure deaths just makes me remember H. L. Mencken: “For every complex problem there is a solution that is concise, clear, simple, and wrong.”
Sunday, June 28
Oregon Health Authority: deaths 202 (+0) cases 8,341 (+245)
Things went all to hell in yesterday’s episode of Kördügüm, our latest Turkish soap opera. Ali Nejat got arrested for murder. He was torn from the arms of his pre-school aged son Kaan and dragged off to jail, with Kaan screaming and carrying on the whole time. Ali Nejat is being framed but by whom? He doesn’t seem to know, but we the audience have gotten hints that the one behind it all might be Enver, his scheming ex brother-in-law. Little Kaan, who recently lost his mother to suicide and has just discovered that he has a father, was so upset by all this that the family called in pediatrician Naz–a family friend who just has a way with kids and seems to really love Kaan. But then again, who doesn’t love Kaan, who is a cute little guy with a big role in this soap and who is played by one hell of a child actor. Naz decided to take Kaan for a drive in the country to calm him down. Unfortunately, that’s just when Kenan’s henchman made their move to kidnap Naz as part of their boss’s plan to get back at her husband Umut–who she happens to be separated from, but Kenan doesn’t know that or care. So the kidnappers got both Naz and Kaan. Yikes. Ali Nejat was going crazy stuck in jail with his son missing. Every character in the show was totally freaked out, except for Umut’s sister Göckçe’s boyfriend Emre, who drives a white Porsche Panamera and who managed to pass his final exam in clothing design by embroidering a beautiful sweater that he then gave as a present to Göckçe after his professor had approved it. So that was good, we guess, but everything else was pretty tense.
In Sunday’s episode, the situation improved. Ali Nejat got out on bail and the police came up with a clue as to where Kenan’s hideout might be. Ali Nejat’s faithful driver Ibrahim then used his contacts in the police department to learn where that was, at which point Ali Nejat raced off to the rescue in his rugged Mercedes G-Class. Umut, meanwhile, had already found the hideout. After arriving there in his white sedan, he went up to the house. Then, because he is a complete idiot, he was knocked unconscious and tied up. By the time he woke up and escaped from his bonds, the bad guys had already fled in their Jeep taking Naz and Kaan with them. Umut immediately ran to his car, a black SUV, and set out after them. When he caught up with them Ali Nejat had already blocked their escape and the police were on the way. Soon it was all over and Ali Nejat, Kaan and Naz were huddled in a three way embrace. The only question remaining was how Umut’s car had managed to change both color and shape while he was tied up. We saw this kind of thing in Black Money Love too; apparently it’s just something that happens in Turkey.
Yikes, 184 new cases from only 1,879 tests, and a new record positive rate of 9.79%. A large chunk of the new cases (99) are from Union County, a mostly rural area in the northeast corner of the state. The total population of the county is about 27,000. They are now reporting a total of 121 confirmed cases with no reported deaths.
Another day with lots of new cases, 278 positives out of 3,396 tests, a positive rate of 8.19%. The total includes another 119 new cases from Union County. This brings the county’s overall case total to 240, which is roughly 0.9% of its population. They report five hospitalizations and no deaths.
There is more news today about the large number of new COVID cases in rural Union County, which is now 242. Most of the new cases are associated with the congregation of the Lighthouse United Pentecostal Church, located in Island City, just east of La Grande. This is hot news and has been featured in any number of national media outlets.
The most detailed accounts that I have found are one from Oregon Public Broadcasting and one from KPTV Fox 12 Oregon. Both organizations are based in Portland. It’s interesting to compare the two stories.
OPB announces the events by quoting a deputy epidemiologist in the state health department, who names the church involved and states that 365 church members have been tested with 236 of those testing positive. The state official is also quoted as saying that “the primary transmission likely occurred between church members and not as part of broader community spread.” The article then includes this one-sentence paragraph: “Local public health officials have offered a somewhat different explanation, downplaying the role of the church in the transmission of cases.” No local public health officials are identified or quoted. Instead, the article moves on immediately to reports that the local newspaper, the La Grande Observer, had published an earlier article saying that Lighthouse had begun in-person services in April and May despite the statewide ban, and that videos posted to the church’s Facebook page showed congregants standing close together without masks, singing and praying. The videos have since been removed. The article then again quotes the state epidemiologist as saying that the people infected by the virus range from children to elderly and include people with “a relatively diverse group of racial and ethnic backgrounds.” They mention that five people have been hospitalized for COVID in the county. Next they include a number of remarks from another named official, the mayor of La Grande. He says that many in the area, himself included, had been feeling fairly sure that their area would not be seriously affected. Now, however, he sees serious cause for concern and urges people in the county to put politics aside and come together to try to limit the spread of the virus. The article then mentions that just before the outbreak two unnamed Union County commissioners had attended a meeting of other rural county commissioners interested in fighting the closures ordered by Gov. Kate Brown. It concludes by noting that that two “OHA staffers” have been sent to La Grande to assist with the response and eight other state workers had been assigned to assist with tracking.
The Fox Story begins by saying that OHA has reported a large outbreak of new cases in Union County and that OHA has attributed “a bunch” of the new cases to Lighthouse United Pentecostal Church in La Grande. Fox then moves directly to an interview with an unnamed member of the church congregation. She says that the church opened back up late last month after the President deemed churches to be essential. She says that the church had guidelines for the 300 members that attend. “They had a hand-washing station outside the door before you came in. People wore masks, or they should’ve. They tried to social distance.” The article then mentions that a video on the church’s Facebook page shows a large group of churchgoers not social distancing. They then again quote the unnamed member who says, “I thought it was wrong. That’s why I didn’t go. I couldn’t see how. It’s a big sanctuary but there’s a lot of people and I didn’t see how people were going to be able to social distance.” She ended by saying that she was praying for everyone to get better and that not all the new cases should be attributed to the church and she doesn’t want the Lighthouse to take on all the blame. The Fox article then moves to an interview with an unnamed Union County Commissioner, who says that the La Grande Hospital has done a good job preparing and has the ability to handle the situation. He also mentions that Lighthouse had previously been contacted by law enforcement and “had been warned.” In the last sentence of the article, they change tack and give the commissioner’s name.
The OPB report contains more hard information from OHA as well as a meaningful and seemingly honest narrative by the mayor who describes a place where people basically scoffed at the virus, right up to when it truly arrived. They also quote the local paper to point out that the church had been known to be violating restrictions for quite some time. They include useful context such as the number of current hospitalizations and they provide the ironical note about the two commissioners who had been trying to find ways to end those needless state mandated restrictions. It ends by noting that the state has devoted resources specifically to aid in a response to this breakout.
I should note that the Fox article came out earlier than the OPB report, which means that the OPB writers may have had the advantage of more complete statistics. For whatever reason, the Fox report is built mostly around the interview with the unnamed church member, who provides an inside view of things. Their source is an interested party and expresses only her personal views. We can sense her struggles with how much she wants to reveal and how she wants to be perceived. At one point she seems tempted to whitewash a little, but just then the Fox journalist seems to have mentioned the now deleted video tapes. The details she provides are important, as is her reasoning and the fact that she decided to stop attending services when she saw how things were going. This inside view helps me imagine the events as they unfolded and maybe to understand them a little better. The article ends with two points that OPB omitted, first that the hospital has been ramping up, preparing for just such an eventuality, and second that the church was previously warned by law enforcement.
The differences in these article were illuminating. The bulk of the OPB article was a platform for reporting official numbers and for communicating what government officials had said in prepared statements. The state health official gave information from his area of expertise and the mayor did the same from his. The result was an overview of the situation by means of an organized collection of numbers and generalities. The Fox article did not question or disparage expertise and clearly accepted the basic facts as presented by the Oregon Health Authority. But it did not focus on numbers, expertise or prepared statements. Instead the writers were after the more human aspects. The congregant’s story takes us out of the realm of statistics and into the world of real people, a very different place. We need to keep that place in mind, I think, just as much as we need accurate statistics. It is a shame, of course, that mostly we all see one or another of these visions, but not both.
Two more days with lots of new cases, but also lots of testing. The daily percent positive numbers are back to normal: Wednesday 2.50%, Thursday 3.10%. The news from Union County is that the county commissioners have recommended that the county roll back from following Stage 2 opening guidelines and return to the more restrictive Stage 1 guidelines. They are also urging all citizens to wear masks.
Busy day for M and E today, prepping for M’s dental surgery tomorrow. We did our weekly shopping at the Co-op; then M went to Fred Meyer for basic soft food supplies: pudding cups, reasonably normal yogurt, plus a few odds and ends. M had first looked at the yogurt brands at the Co-op, but had finally had to turn away, helpless before an unbearable onslaught of twee.
Then it was on to mowing the back lawn and a bit of watering. Yes, it’s turned hot again and the berries need water. After dinner we picked raspberries which are just now coming on. This was followed by a delayed dessert of strawberries and ice cream. Before bed we watched a bit of our new Turkish series. It’s called Intersection and it’s very different from our last one. On the one hand, it’s kinda slow. On the other, there are only 13 episodes in the first season.
Only 1 new death reported today, but lots of new cases. The day’s positive rate was 4.31%.
We recently got to see how dental offices have adapted for the pandemic when E went for a cleaning and M went for his implant. As instructed we wore masks to both places. At E’s place, the first order of business was having her temperature taken at the door. Inside, there was a sad lack of amenities in the waiting room: no coffee machine, no iPad, no toys, and, worst of all, no cupcakes! (Yikers, you exclaim, are there really dentists who give away cupcakes? Well yes, Pandemic Diary can report that there used to be at least one. Trust Eve to have found him.) The good doctor reports that when they re-opened the practice, he was expecting a rush of deferred cleanings. What he had not expected was the surge in stress fractures and chipped teeth, some of which may have been related to tooth grinding. All treatment room staff were double masked and face shielded.
E accompanied M to his surgery appointment because a caregiver was required. At that office, the first priority was to make the final installment of the prepayment. (Those who suggest that after the pandemic nothing will ever be the same are exaggerating.) The pandemic adaptations came next. We both had to fill out a COVID survey form. A new ballpoint was provided for each of us and we were told we could keep the pens or discard them in the wastebasket when we were done. We then sat in the waiting room for a bit. No magazines or any other amusements, but there was a sign announcing free wi-fi. When M was called, they did a forehead temperature check in the hallway between the waiting room and the treatment room. M passed the test. E was supposed to wait for him for the entire time, roughly an hour and a half. But the rule was that she could either stay in the waiting room or go out and sit in her car. Requiring her to stay the whole time seemed excessive, especially since our house is only five minutes away, but this doctor is like that. At the same time, requiring her to stay in the smallish waiting room would endanger her health and that of others. Being the way he is, the boss couldn’t ignore that either, hence the wait in the car option.
The result was a de facto compromise. Eve went out and got in her car, waited for a bit and then drove home, where she stayed a while and then returned. After a bit a dental staffer came out, found her car, and let her know that the procedure was about three fourths done. E appreciated getting this update, though she realized later than the primary purpose for the visit to her car was simply to make sure she was around. Eventually, someone came out again to call her in to meet M in the recovery room. Later in the day, E went over to the Burgerville drive-through and got M a chocolate shake. He says that he is now pretty certain that the marriage was not a mistake.
Short nights and long days here, of course, as the solstice approaches. The predawn light arrives around 4:30 and in the evening we’re both getting tired well before it gets dark. While waiting for the dark, we’ve been watching our new Turkish series on Netflix. It’s called Intersection (Kördügüm) and it is both similar and different to Black Money Love. Both series feature evil patriarchs with rebellious sons, older sisters with mental issues, college aged daughters who fight with their mothers, traitorous woman friends, and quite a few hospital scenes. Both have gun violence too, but whereas BML started off with a double murder, Intersection began with a suicide and then made us wait for more than five hours to see the next shooting and that was a paltry nonlethal wound in the abdomen. The costume design in Intersection is not as interesting as in BML although we have to admit that Didem was dressed to the nines for her suicide scene at Ali Nejat’s birthday party in the ballroom of the swank hotel. Other differences are that no one in Intersection is a police officer, no one is engaged in organ trafficking (so far) and no one has opened a bookstore. Instead, one of the main Intersection characters, Naz, is a brilliant head of pediatrics who is always saving kids from mysterious conditions that no one else can diagnose. She herself is childless. Having lost a baby once before, she is reluctant to try again, which is causing a rift with her husband, Umut, who is sort of nice but who has some weird issues to go along with his big dreams…
On Sunday, when we joined the Black Lives Matter demonstrators and felt the energy of the large crowd, it was clear that decency and the capacity for outrage over injustice are still alive in our town, as they seem to be in so many other parts of the world. It’s good to be reminded that goodness never dies. Alas that evil never dies either. We have gone through this before.
In the unreal world of Black Money Love, the main plot is winding down and as it does things are turning dark. Ömer is finding ways to smite the great evil, but he is losing his belief in his own innocence and getting a peek at the less admirable side of his own motives. Elif sees it and we in the audience see it also. We are disappointed in him. We have only four more episodes; we’ll have to see what the writers can do.
An old-fashioned June day in Oregon, cool and cloudy with intermittent showers, the kind of day we had before global warming. Thirty or forty years ago, we wore sweaters and rain jackets in June and complained of the damp and the cold. It was hard to believe back then that June meant summer in most of the country, that we’d need sunglasses and shorts if we travelled anywhere.
Here in 2020, we had planned a trip over to the coast to stay at a hotel on the beach at Newport. Alas, there has been an outbreak at a seafood plant there and the hotel is reducing services for a few days, so we’ve decided to cancel.
We had tertulia with J and R today, and for the first time in months we met at an actual coffee shop. We sat outside on the terrace under overcast skies and braved a few drops of rain. Very nice. Later on E and M went downtown and picked up a necklace or two for E and then got take-out lunch from the Vietnamese Baguette. We ate on a bench on the riverfront.
According to the Oregon Health Authority, yesterday was a record day for testing (5,038) and also for new cases confirmed (177). The percentage of tests that came out positive was 3.51%, slightly above the long term average for this number, which is 3.24%.
Which goes on longer, a seemingly interminable pandemic or a seemingly interminable Turkish TV series? Well, it appears that the pandemic wins because for us the latter has ended. Last night we watched the final episode of Kara Para Aşk, a.k.a. Black Money Love. Episode #164 went for 55 minutes instead of the usual 45; they had a lot to wind up. Ömer and Elif had split up after the death of Tayyar when Elif demanded that Ömer leave the police force. But after three months, Ömer came his senses and they were married in a lovely ceremony by the sea. Now they are planning to open a bookstore. Yes, I know. That’s insane. Never mind. Previously, Hüseyin partially redeemed himself by taking a bullet meant for Ömer. He is now paralyzed and has been released from prison into the care of his family. Melike and Elvan have solved their money problems by opening a day care center. Venal Fatma went too far even for saintly Elvan and has been thrown out. Demet and Mert are officially engaged. Pelin and Arda are married. Having adopted İpek’s little boy, Yağız, they are also expecting a child of their own. Elif’s sister Aslı has married Ege, who seemed for a time to be Elif’s new boyfriend.
That leaves only Nilüfer and Fatih. Fatih has escaped from prison, but is now broke and in hiding. Nilüfer is with him. He’s been very good lately and seems to adore being with her and planning for the birth of their child. He hasn’t shot anyone in the last few days and in fact the last person he killed was purely in self defense, back when Tayyar sent an assassin into the prison to kill him. Fatih has done a lot of bad things in his life, but he’s trying hard to be better. Nilüfer really loves him and he loves her. So, what to do, what to do? Have him die in a shoot-out? Spend life in prison? Escape from Turkey and make a new life financed by his ill-gotten gains? None of these are quite right. He needs to suffer, but he also needs to have some chance for eventual happiness. So the writers had to think carefully. As always, their ability to blissfully ignore the demands of plausibility came in handy in what they finally came up with. But we didn’t really mind. Even though the superficial sloppiness of BML drove us both crazy, we know the difference between a story and a report. It has been argued by serious scholars that there’s nothing very plausible about King Lear either.
Just to clear the air, though, let’s now leave off both pandemic and pandemic pass times. Here’s what the lilies have to say.
Another day similar to yesterday: a relatively high number of tests processed (4,376) and a high number of new cases confirmed (140). The percentage of tests that came out positive was 3.20%, which is again very close to the long term average, which remains at 3.24%. So, more testing yields more positives, just as it should at this point. We might also consider OHA’s claim that recent testing has been focused away from the “worried well” and more toward individuals that are known to have been exposed. To the extent that this is the case, the percent positive rate should actually be going up because we are doing a better job of zeroing in on people who are infected. In light of this, maybe the unchanged percent positive rate should be considered good news? Never mind, the simple existence of these higher than usual case numbers freaks everybody out, for understandable reasons. Oregon’s governor has announced a one-week “pause” in the state’s reopening process.
A third straight day with high testing numbers (4,460) and high new case totals (158). The daily test positive rate was 3.54%, a little above the overall test positive rate, which is now 3.25%.
A quiet day here on Oak Avenue, cool and wet. For breakfast we had fresh strawberries from our rather pitiful little patch. Not an abundant crop, but tasty. E did some gardening despite the rain. M finished painting the wall where the ironing board didn’t go and did a little caulking in our decrepit main bathroom. For dinner we had take-out from Koriander, a Korean fusion restaurant that we’d been missing. Delicious job chae with sweet potato noodles.
We are missing our friends Elif, Ömer and the gang. They were quite real to us while we were watching, and now they’ve all gone away. The actors who portrayed them have turned back into actors. We miss their passions, their reckless energy, their emotional boneheadedness and the insane coincidences in which they were constantly involved. Our real friends and family members cannot quite fill this void…
A moderately high number of tests (3,583) combined with a lowish percent positive (2.82%) equals a moderate increase in cases. From very early on in this morass, it seemed to me that all numbers regarding the virus were dubious, with too much variation in reporting, too many assumptions, too much distortion, too much ignorance, too many unknowns, and never enough context. The number that seemed best, back then, was the simplest one–the death toll. That too is imperfect, but it still has more significance than any other. The official Oregon death toll is now 176, or 4 per 100,000 of population. To visualize the distribution of those deaths over time, I’ve been making a graph of 10-day averages. Since I’ve been keeping records for 80 days now, it’s time to add an eighth data point to that graph. As shown below, the rate in the most recent period was 1.7, while that of the previous two periods was 1.1.
Nice quiet Sunday. In the morning E organized a Zoom call with her siblings. Later on, M helped E with her photo album project. She plans to empty a number of old albums, pick out 600 or so pics for scanning, and then discard the remains. E has done this before. The actual scanning is done in the Philippines. She says that the whole process goes pretty well, because even if you forget where you put the CD that they sent you, it’ll turn up eventually.
In case anyone is wondering, Elif is in jail again and will soon go on trial for the murder of the man who killed her father 128 episodes ago. She remembers nothing of what happened during time that the murder occurred. She was found near the supposed crime scene in a dazed stupor, the murder weapon in her hand. The prison psychiatrist, who is in the pay of her enemies, is trying to convince her to accept the fact that she did the deed. Her enemies believe that this will cause her to either commit suicide or give a false confession, either of which would give them unbridled joy. So far this seems to be working. It is sad to see her so downcast, especially since we the audience know that the man she is supposed to have murdered isn’t even dead. Did I mention the hatchet that Fatih was holding behind his back? Well…that too.
We mentioned the lowish COVID death toll reported from Denmark, which was 9.8 per 100,000. But what about Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam? All these countries are reporting fewer than 1 death per 100,000. Why? There are many possible factors, and the explanations might not be the same for all of these six. And of course there is the issue that we have no way of verifying the accuracy of the numbers, theirs or anyone else’s.
We suspect, though, that preparedness, quick action and competence may have contributed something. We are being told that Vietnam began testing all incoming travelers from Wuhan as soon as it was announced that the virus existed. When they found their first case, they cancelled all flights from Wuhan. The next day they cancelled all flights from China. As they found more cases, they began tracing and testing everyone that infected persons had been in contact with. There was no general lockdown, but any area with more than a few cases went under local lockdown. Last time I checked, they were reporting thousands of cases but zero deaths.
Just another pandemic day. E did her Zoom exercise class in the morning and a bunch of garden chores. M puttered around outside and then took the Porsche out for a ride. The weather was just warm enough to put the top down. It was M’s night to cook, with store-bought samosas and home-made roasted vegetables on the menu. Also gin.
We learned today that Representative Steve King, a Republican from Ohio, will be leaving office after losing to a Republican challenger in the primary election. King has long been the most blatantly racist member of the U.S. Congress. He has enjoyed the warm support and approval of the President, but last year his fellow Republicans in the House turned on him, stripping him of all committee assignments.
Around here it has been another day of garden chores in the morning followed by photo album teardown work in the afternoon. We are still mulling a trip over to the Oregon coast but have made no concrete efforts in that direction.
Things are moving along nicely in our Turkish soap, of which we have now seen an astonishing 149 episodes. Elif is in the hospital after being stabbed while in prison awaiting the final disposition of the murder charge against her. She ran afoul of another inmate and was “shanked,” as the subtitles put it, in the prison bathroom. “How is she doing?” you ask. How do you think she’s doing? Please choose from among the following: (A) She was pregnant and the doctor couldn’t save the baby, (B) She is hovering on the edge of death and it could go either way, (C) She is conscious but no longer recognizes Ömer, (D) She has been declared dead, but the decision may be reversed when Ömer demands to see the surveillance tapes. The correct answers are (A) and (B). But if you chose either of the others, I’d say you haven’t done badly. You could probably get a job writing for shows like this.
Pandemic Diary has been tracking the Oregon situation for 70 days now, which means that it’s time for a chart update. As it happens, the average number of deaths per day for the latest 10-day period is the same as for the previous 10-day period.
We went into the forest today and walked up the Baker Creek Trail off Sulphur Springs Rd. Due to logging activity, the east end of our usual loop was blocked off. We walked the west side of the loop, up Rd 800 and then down into the swale. What a lovely place–green, moist and unimproved. Lots of ancient trees, mostly fir and maples. Retraced our steps to return. Then it was lunchtime so we decided to head back to town and try the Burgerville drive-up. When we got there, there was a huge line of cars. We went over to try La Rockita. They have no drive-up, just two separate doors at the front of the shop, one for ordering and one for picking up. It seemed uncrowded, so we went for it. But appearances can be deceiving. There were lots and lots of online and phone orders ahead of us. We learned that it’s not smart to just show up at the order window and order. We’ll know better next time, of course, and go online. But one does get tired of always having to be organized. Still, we got our tacos and ate them in our back yard. They were delicious.
Last night we watched episodes 150 and 151 of Black Money Love. Elif has come out of her coma and seems mostly recovered–at least physically–from her experience. This comes just in time for her to return to court for the final disposition of her case. She has been expertly framed and it seems that all is lost. Ömer, Arda and Pelin are certain that Hüseyin, the man she is supposed to have killed, is still alive, this despite the DNA results from the charred lower leg that was found after the terrible fire at the crime scene. Alas, they have not been able to track Hüseyin down and the judge has refused to delay the sentencing. As it happens though, it is Mert’s college graduation day and he stops by the hospital to thank Elif for all her kindness to him. With Elif’s help, young Mert has turned himself around from worthless playboy to serious student and now proud graduate. Putting aside her troubles for the moment, Elif takes time to congratulate him. A little later, just hours from the judgment that will settle her fate, she mentions Mert’s visit to Ömer. This seemingly inconsequential piece of information gives him an idea, a last chance to save Elif from life in prison. He rushes off. Elif is eventually transferred under guard from the hospital to the courtroom. During some preliminary discussions, the judge makes it clear that the preponderance of evidence still points to her guilt. Just as he begins the official reading of the verdict and the resulting sentence, Ömer pushes through the door at the back of the courtroom and calls out for him to stop. The alleged murder victim, he says, is still alive. The judge looks angrily at him. Ömer turns his head back toward the door and Hüseyin slowly comes in. He is limping due to a new prosthetic on his right leg from the knee down. After hearing his statement, the judge announces an acquittal and tells Elif she is free to go. Great stuff. The idea that Elif’s past kindness to Mert helps to save her is a nice touch. That and the leg thing. And now just 13 more episodes…
Today the Oregon Health Authority is reporting a relatively high number of new confirmed cases–96 in the last 24 hours. But they also report a high number of tests processed during that period, nearly 4,000. The media often report “spikes” in the numbers of new confirmed cases, but very often this means simply that we are getting better at finding cases. At this point it is not a good indicator of how much of the total population is infected or of how serious the virus is. The only data we have for that are the number of hospitalizations and the number of deaths.
Here at the Pandemic Diary, we also track the daily ratio of positive tests to total tests. This would be a really interesting number if the people being tested were selected at random from the population. This very much not the case, of course, as testing efforts need to be focused on certain groups. So the ratio doesn’t say very much about the prevalence or seriousness of the virus. Still, we like this statistic because it’s easy to calculate and makes for a cute graph. At this point the ratio of positives continues to decline gently as the number of tests per day trends flat or slowly up.
And here it is–our local paper reporting this morning about Friday’s increase in the number of cases confirmed.
The headline is problematic for the usual reasons. The article itself gives the context, suggesting that the increase comes from a larger than usual number of tests and from more diligent contact tracing. But some people will not read beyond the headline and might thus conclude that the sky is falling. Some others, who do read the article, will note the reasons given but assume that they are merely excuses manufactured by the state authorities in a vain attempt to cover up their own inability to deal with a worsening problem. It is difficult for anyone to read the phrase “a spike in confirmed cases” without getting the sense that the whole situation is, in fact, getting worse. But also, of course, some readers have already decided that the pandemic has been wildly overblown by public officials, pharmaceutical companies, and a complicit media establishment. These folks will see this as just another attempt to sow panic in order to justify continued assaults on our basic rights as citizens. I don’t have any answers here, but I’ve been thinking of some alternative headlines anyway. How about “Latest COVID Case Stats Show Results of Better Testing Focus”? That should bore everybody.
In other news, the Washington Post reports that in Europe many officials are now wondering if school closures were really necessary, pointing to a number of countries where schools reopened early without negative consequences. Lastly, Reuters reports from Florida that drive-through Botox treatments are once again available.
The new case count includes 65 cases at a seafood processing plant.
Demonstrations in support of Black Lives Matter have been taking place worldwide. We went to one in Corvallis today. There were a few boomers but mostly younger people. Pretty much everyone wore a mask.
The paper says the crowd numbered 4,000, which seems a little high to me. Still, it was heartening, very much so.
We are coming to the end of our Turkish soap–just seven more episodes to go. But action continues unabated. After a brief interlude in which she was kidnapped (again!) and locked into a puzzle house where she almost died of poison gas, Elif is once again free and reunited with Ömer. And the mega-evil Tayyar is in jail! But wait, where is Nilüfer, Elif’s younger sister, she who is pregnant by soulful psycho-man Fatih? The reason she hasn’t been heard from is that some of Tayyar’s henchmen are holding her and plan to bury her in wet concrete if Tayyar is not sprung from jail and allowed to flee the country. Fatih can’t help her because he’s also in jail, along with Hüseyin. Once again it will be up to Ömer, Elif, Arda and Pelin to somehow resolve this crisis. Sadly, their colleague İpek has died in a gunfight with some of the evil Nedret’s henchmen. She shot all four of the bad guys who tried to kill her, but was fatally wounded in the process. Once, long ago, İpek and Ömer were sweethearts. No one has yet had the heart to tell him of her demise. She is survived by her young son, Yağız, who could almost have been Ömer’s child, but wasn’t.
It’s our 24th anniversary today. We celebrated with a dinner consisting of mixed salad with cilantro and tomato alongside canned sardines for the bride and kippered herring for the groom. Our salad dressing–as always–was the Turkish style with lots of lemon juice and just a little olive oil. Very nice. The main course was fresh baked rhubarb pie warm from the oven, with modest scoops of vanilla ice cream. Aah. Then a walk followed by a couple of episodes of our crime drama/soap.
We got mad at our show a few days ago for being too slow and depressing. But the action has picked up and we are once again reconciled to the ridiculously unlikely coincidences and etc. We were happy to see that Elif has finally been warned that the DNA test that she arranged to determine who fathered İpek’s child may have been tampered with by cunning Nedret and slimy snake Levent.
Anniversary celebrations are far from finished. Gifts have not yet been exchanged, though some have been ordered. We may also try staying a night or two at the coast, where hotels and other businesses are now somewhat opened up.
A gardening and lawn mowing day. The irises are just about done; roses out in full force. The white calla lilies inherited from the previous owners are doing great. The blooms really last. Blueberries look very promising with hints of purple on the green. E spent a lot time attacking spider mite infestations, which are widespread. Worst off is a small hebe by the patio that is near death. On the up side, the little ice plant that we have dubbed ‘the sick man of Europe’ now has eleven blossoms and will have to be removed from the critical list, a better outcome than befell the Ottoman Empire a hundred and two years ago.
Got an invitation for a socially distanced Wednesday breakfast with chocolate chip scones! Sounds good to us.
No new deaths, but somewhat of an upturn in number of new cases.
Started the day with good scones, good coffee and good conversation. Later on, we delivered a couple of pieces of pie to some of our old neighbors. It was nice to see B again. We talked, at a distance, just outside the garage wherein lives his newish car, a dark blue 2019 Toyota Avalon. (The color matched that of the car we arrived in.) Beautiful. Before this car, B had owned four new Cadillacs in succession. But the Cadillac dealer in Corvallis closed down and B likes to have a dealer nearby for servicing.
Had dinner at the old wooden table in our back garden. Moroccan vegetable stew over couscous plus a green salad with Ankara dressing. Delicious.
Hot weather today, with afternoon temps in the high 80’s. E and M did a hiking expedition, taking the little car up to Mary’s Peak, highest point in the coast range. Parked at the campground (which is closed) and hiked the Meadow’s Edge loop trail. A bit cooler up there and very lovely. Lots of yellow violets and white oxalis blooms. Also noticed a mass migration of half-inch long black beetles from an alpine meadow area downhill into a forest. Sandwiches and pineapple juice for lunch near the high point of the loop. (Some chocolate also.) Fun to give the Porsche some exercise. Top down on the way up, but on the way back, once out of the mountains the top went back up. Too hot. M seemed ill-prepared for this sudden summer and is suffering from sunburn. His night to cook; homemade pizza being the plan.
On Thursday the 28th there were three articles on the front page of our newspaper. Two were by local reporters; the third was from the Associated Press. The first two sentences of the AP article were these: “The U.S. surpassed a jarring milestone Wednesday in the coronavirus pandemic: 100,000 deaths. That number is the best estimate and most assuredly an undercount.” That second sentence gave me pause, mostly because I had the impression that whether COVID deaths are being under-counted or over-counted has been the subject of some debate. I know that there was a controversy recently in the state of Colorado which resulted the state making revisions to its procedures and led to an announcement that the cumulative death toll was being reduced from 1150 to 878, a roughly 20% reduction.
So, what about this “most assuredly”? Where did it come from, this rather strange phrase? Is this phrase actually in common use these days? It sounds nineteenth century to me, or maybe just British English. But I digress. The real problem in the sentence is a logical one: No estimate can be both a “best” estimate and “most assuredly” a too low estimate at the same time. Aren’t best estimates, by definition, in the middle? The probability that they are too high is the same as the probability that they are too low. My feeling is that the phrase ‘most assuredly’ as used in the article is both a blatant lie (asserting that there can be no debate where debate obviously exists) and a logical contradiction. Maybe I’m crazy to worry about this. Maybe I’m getting so much logical incoherence in the stupid plot of our Turkish soap opera that I’ve become over-sensitized and gone round the bend. I don’t know.
Woke to the sound of thunder today followed by a brief shower. Then in the afternoon, a lot more rain. Good, we were tired of watering. High around 60.
The good news from Denmark, in case you missed it, was that the death toll there is relatively low. How about Sweden, you ask, the place with some of the mildest lockdown restrictions in Europe? Sweden’s toll is 42.7 per 100,000. That’s a lot higher than Denmark’s (9.8 per 100,000) or Germany’s (10.3), but lower than Italy, Spain or the United Kingdom all of which are in the mid to high 50’s. In these last three countries, all schools remain shut down. Sweden shut down its high schools at the start of the pandemic but never closed down its primary and middle schools. Denmark first shut down all schools but then reopened primary and middle schools on April 15th. What can we make of all this? Well…maybe not very much. Interesting though.
Nice quiet Sunday. In the morning E organized a Zoom call with her siblings. They seem to be a fairly nice group of people. Later on, M helps E with her photo album project. She plans to empty a number of old albums, pick out 600 or so pics for scanning, and then discard the remains. She has done this before. The actual scanning is done in the Philippines. She says that the whole process goes pretty well, because even if you forget where you put the CD that they sent you, it’ll turn up eventually.
In case anyone is wondering, Elif is in jail again and will soon go on trial for the murder of the man who killed her father 128 episodes ago. She remembers nothing of what happened during time that the murder occurred. She was found near the supposed crime scene in a dazed stupor, the murder weapon in her hand. The prison psychiatrist, who is in the pay of her enemies, is trying to convince her to accept the fact that she did the deed. Her enemies believe that this will cause her to either commit suicide or give a false confession, either of which would give them unbridled joy. So far this seems to be working. It is sad to see her so downcast, especially since we the audience know that the man she is supposed to have murdered isn’t even dead. Did I mention the hatchet that Fatih was holding behind his back? That’s how they set up the very damning DNA test on the body. Yup, lopped that thing right off and bribed the CSI guy to send it to the lab.
An article in today’s paper warned of potentially drastic consequences of early re-opening. Its main argument was that the total number of COVID cases in the U.S. is still rising. But it was not clear whether the writer understood the difference between cumulative totals over time and specific conditions at any one particular time. Plus, as we have mentioned earlier, the number of confirmed COVID cases has as much to do with the number of tests processed as it does with the actual number of infections in the population. If our goal is to minimize the number of confirmed cases, the simplest solution would be to stop doing so much testing. (And yes, some of our leaders have already thought of this.) On the other hand, if the goal is to minimize the overall negative effects of the pandemic, there is no simple solution.
Of the 145 deaths in Oregon, 138 (95%) involved victims aged 60 and above. There have been 8 deaths of individuals between the ages of 40 and 59 and no deaths of anyone younger than 40. (These numbers are updated daily at https://govstatus.egov.com/OR-OHA-COVID-19)
E and M got depressed last night from watching their stupid Turkish soap. Learning the truth about his brother has brought Ömer’s worst neuroses to the fore and he was unable to go through with his marriage to Elif, leaving her at the altar in her pretty white dress. We knew this was coming, but we were still sad to see it. What a schmuck.
Once again Friday means E fetches French pastries for breakfast and then M goes grocery shopping. In kind of a rut here, but it’s working pretty well. The pain au chocolat was delicious and the store was uncrowded. The selection of fresh fish was better today than it has been in weeks, so something’s changing there. Still no paper towels. Lots of sanitizer.
M is finishing up his feeble attempt to explain why he has watched so much of Black Money Love. Is the world clamoring for such news? Not exactly. But as for the show itself, M and E are the not the only ones watching. M says that the series is or was available on TV in some 30 countries.
Zoom gathering today with two of E’s long-time friends plus the Andees. Not something that would have happened without the pandemic. Beautiful spring day. After dinner, we watched two more episodes of the Turkish show. Must say that our interest is starting to wane. Too long. Too slow. So, back to the pandemic. Good news on that front. Death numbers are down. The Pandemic Diary has been tracking basic Oregon statistics for 60 days now. Here’s a graph that shows the basic data as divided into six 10-day periods. The numbers on the vertical axis are the average number of deaths per day. The period of March 27 to April 5 showed a steep increase in daily deaths. The four periods from April 6 to May 15 show a plateau that tilts down. The most recent period shows a steep decline. What does the future hold? Stay tuned.
Average Oregon deaths per day in 6 consecutive 10-day periods
The following two charts are not news, but they are interesting given some of the confusion that surrounded such numbers in the early stages of the pandemic. What they show is that an overall increase in the number of tests per day in Oregon has been accompanied by a decrease in the daily percentage of test results that are positive. At the beginning, when testing capacity was lowest, testing was limited to a very high probability population: people who showed clear COVID symptoms and people who were known to have been exposed to confirmed cases, such as family members and health care workers. As testing capacity expanded, the population of people tested started to include a slightly wider circle of people, which included those who may have been exposed to known cases or who showed less definite COVID-like symptoms. Given this expanded circle, it would seem natural to expect a decrease in the percentage of positive results per day as indeed is shown in the second graph. It should be noted that the numbers in these two graphs do not provide any conclusive information about transmissibility of the virus or its prevalence in the general population. They are artifacts of our response to the virus.
The number of tests per day has fluctuated, but the trend is upward.
Percent positive has trended downward, even during the period when deaths were highest
