Meandering on the Way

Monday, May 4

Statewide: 109 deaths, 2759 cases, 63,443 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +79)

The second day in a row with no reported COVID deaths in Oregon. The case number total, however, is up by 79. OHA notes that this total includes both confirmed and presumptive cases. In their words: “Presumptive cases are those without a positive diagnostic test who present COVID-19-like symptoms and had close contact with a confirmed case.”

Made an excursion today to McDowell Creek Park north of Sweet Home. M’s iPhone reports 1.6 miles of walking and 16 flights climbed; E took an alternate route on the way down and logged considerably more. The volume of water coming over the various waterfalls was lower than when we visited in February, but still sufficient to make for lovely scenes. Had a picnic lunch prepared especially for us by McDonald’s of Lebanon.

Tuesday, May 5

Statewide: 113 deaths, 2,839 cases, 65,402 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +80)

Here’s a homemade graph of Oregon deaths, based on the data here in the Pandemic Diary so far. 

Wednesday, May 6

Statewide: 115 deaths, 2,916 cases, 67,947 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +57)

So far the COVID story in Oregon shows a strong urban/rural divide. Of Oregon’s 36 counties, 24 have reported 0 deaths from COVID. In three of the 24, the number of confirmed cases is also zero; in five others the number of cases is one. These are rural counties with low populations. Will they continue to be spared? Or is the virus just taking longer to arrive? We shall see. Meanwhile, let’s just imagine we live in a community where the case numbers are minimal and no one has died. Would we be pleased and relieved that the governor had ordered a lockdown? Some of us maybe, but that’s asking a lot. In general, I expect that we would simply be confirmed in our suspicions that those people in Salem and Portland are all knuckleheads and thank god we don’t live over there. 

Thursday, May 7

Statewide: 115 deaths, 2,916 cases, 67,947 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +57)

E organized a Zoom meeting with Jim, Joann and John. Nice! Joann really wants us to come and visit them. The pandemic does not seem to be part of her world.

Lunch from Burgerville today. Long line at the drive-up. Tomorrow’s breakfast from Le Patissier has been ordered. 

Watched two episodes of our Turkish soap last night. Elif and Ömer slept together again (finally!) and now spend a lot to time making goo-goo eyes at each other and not advancing the plot at all. But the new characters, Elif’s wealthy aunt, Nedret, and Ömer’s old girlfriend, İpek, are beginning to make their presence felt. İpek has been transferred into Ömer’s department and Elif has met her, but no one has informed Elif that the two have a history. Ooh.  

Friday, May 8

Statewide: 124 deaths, 3,032 cases, 72,657 tested  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +43)

Several excursions today.  E went out early to fetch croissants from Le Patissier. We had them with a couple of giant strawberries that arrived last night, a Mother’s Day present from the Andees. Thus fortified, M went out grocery shopping. Then at about 11:00 the two of us made an expedition to Home Depot to get a bit of wire fencing for E’s front corner garden. Lots of traffic on the roads by then and when we got to Home Depot, the parking lot was more crowded than we had ever seen. They’re limiting how many people can be in the store at any one time, so there was a long line of people waiting outside. The beautiful weather had something to do with it. But there may have been psychological reasons as well, a feeling that somehow we have turned the corner on the pandemic. We decided to abort and try again after lunch. A few hours later the line outside was shorter and moved quickly. But they had no fencing of the type wanted! So we kept our masks on and tried the Wilco farm store just down the road. Success!

Social hour with B and B in the afternoon at their new place. We felt some trepidation. Of all our friends they seemed a bit less concerned with taking precautions. But who can say no to the B’s? It was fine, we hope. 

The news from Kara Para Aşk, is that İpek has been shot! But she is expected to recover and she managed to disrupt the ambush meant to kill Arda. Elif is worried that Ömer might be feeling a little too much sympathy for İpek. Meanwhile, Ömer is beginning to face the awful truth about his brother Hüseyin.  

Saturday, May 9

Statewide: 127 deaths, 3,160 cases, 74,541 tested  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +128)

Although Oregon COVID deaths are still low and the curve is flat, the latest numbers do show a one-day spike in number of new cases. 

We had a busy Saturday morning, mostly doing garden work, but M also washed the Boxster and then remounted the kitchen can opener, which had fallen off the wall during a battle with a can of sauerkraut.

The big news, though, is that we have purchased a John Deere tractor. Given the size of our yard, this was almost a necessity. Almost.

Sunday, May 10

Statewide: 127 deaths, 3,228 cases, 75,450 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +68)

Mothers Day, 2020 and Eve celebrates by having an almond paste croissant and a giant strawberry for breakfast. Then she mows the lawn. After lunch a small box of Burst’s chocolates comes out of quarantine. It had been self isolating for three days to prepare for this occasion. 

Nedret continues her clever campaign to prevent Elif from marrying Ömer. She has learned that Ömer could be the father of İpek’s child! Yikes. You can see the wheels spinning as she plans how to use this information for maximum impact.

Monday, April 27

Statewide: 92 deaths, 2,354 cases, 51,198 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +43)

E did her restorative yoga class today via Zoom. M sat in–well out of camera range–and tried to follow along. It wasn’t pretty. And besides that, Elif is still in a filthy jail cell being pressured to make a false confession and Sami has been exiled to the obscurity in the provinces. Ömer is near despair, but his mother tells him never to give up hope. Back in the real world, we got some happy news friends in Colorado.

Tuesday, April 28

Statewide: 99 deaths, 3,385 cases, 52,242 tested  (Deaths: +7) (Cases: +31)

A week or so back, E went to the bookstore–you can’t go in, but they’ll bring things out to you–and bought a book of Molly Gloss short stories. This book of stories is called Unforeseen. Some of Gloss’s novels, like Hearts of Horses, have specific historical settings. The settings here, though, are different, sometimes contemporary and sometimes speculative. Most of them focus on lives that involve close relations with–and close observation of–the natural world. The stories tend to be immediately engrossing. Using seemingly simple materials, Gloss very quietly builds sharper and sharper tensions, which in the end are only partially resolved. (But the Tao says that the partial and the whole are one…)

We made a trip to Ankeny Wildlife Refuge today. In one part of the refuge, there is a small wetland forest where big ash trees grow. You can see them in the background below. In the spring the trunks push up through two or three feet of water. It’s perfect habitat for wood ducks, of which we saw many. There’s a boardwalk through the deepest part and a big octagonal blind. Had lunch sitting in the grass on the bank of an old dyke southeast of the ponds. Rode home with the top down.

Wednesday, April 29

Statewide: 101 deaths, 2,446 cases, 54,472 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +61)

Oregon’s total deaths have now reached 0.0235 per thousand by method of calculation that I have used previously. I’ve noticed recently that some official sources have begun reporting COVID results in terms of deaths per one hundred thousand. It seems to me that those numbers are easier to understand, so I will be using the 100,000 method from now on. In those terms, the Oregon number as of today is 2.35 deaths per every 100,000 inhabitants. This number will inevitably rise as more deaths occur. Two weeks ago, for example, it was 1.49 per 100,000.

For those of you who are naturally worried about what’s happening to Elif and Ömer, I can report that although Elif is still in jail, she has been moved to a nicer cell.

Thursday, April 30

Statewide: 103 deaths, 2,510 cases, 56,032 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +64)

 Another normal day for these times. Zoom BBB for Eve. Then a trip to Garland for plants, then some lunch, then some planting. And finally…quiet time, a.k.a. nap.Then it was M’s night to cook. The menu was Indian chickpeas, Indian saag lentils, and green salad. The larder is emptying, so a grocery store visit is planned for tomorrow. 

Elon Musk said that lockdowns are ‘fascist’ and is now being called insane and dangerous. Technically, Musk is right; the crisis response has been dictatorial and has overridden certain rights that normally we take for granted. In a real crisis, that’s what happens. And rightly so. Group survival depends on firm and timely measures even if some people disagree with them. 

But is this a real crisis? The virus is real, of course, and the virus deaths are real; but the crisis level is less clear. Is COVID truly an existential threat? Is our response to it proportional to our response to other threats? So far this year in Oregon, 104 people have died of the virus, most of them older people who were already in poor health. Also so far this year, 385 people in Oregon have died by suicide, quite a number of them young people who might have had many years of life before them. To deal with the virus, we are willing to turn our world upside down, causing hardships and life disruption to thousands of citizens and incurring financial losses in the billions of dollars. Fine. But what are we doing to prevent suicide, which is taking three and half times as many lives? In comparison, not very much. Automobile accidents this year in Oregon have cost perhaps twenty times as many lives as the virus. And thirty years ago, when cars were less safe, the highway death toll per capita was much higher. But has any governor, then or now, ever decreed a moratorium on cars? We also hear seemingly credible claims that the lockdown measures themselves are contributing to a large number of extra non-virus deaths. The COVID crisis is real all right, but it’s peculiar. It’s no wonder we have disagreement about what we’re doing in the name of fighting it. 

Friday, May 1

Statewide: 104 deaths, 2,579 cases, 58,176 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +69)

Successful grocery outing this morning. For a hour or two after we got home there was a mound of fresh vegetables sitting on our counter, freshly washed and waiting to be put away. And then, E once again braved the potential hazards of the French bakery. Pain au chocolat for lunch. Also, we note that emergency dental care is still functioning. M spoke to a friend who had root canal yesterday to prove it. At 5:00 we had a Zoom social hour with several old friends just before dinner.

But best of all, my mother got her $1200 stimulus check today. Frankly, we had not expected this. We thought it might be a mistake. Don’t they realize that she passed away a year and a half ago? But no, never let it be said that our government’s records are inaccurate. The check is written to Patricia A Petrich, DECD 

Saturday, May 2

Statewide: 109 deaths, 2,635 cases, 60,136 tested  (Deaths: +5) (Cases: +56)

A quiet day, rainy in the morning. We did some gardening with rain jackets on. Then later the weather turned fine. Saturday has become take-out dinner day! We did Pastini’s. 

Sunday, May 3

Statewide: 109 deaths, 2,680 cases, 62,054 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +45)

Lovely breakfast of almond paste croissants from E’s venture to the bakery on Friday. After breakfast she did a Zoom call with Suzanne and Mrs. Hopper, then talked to both brother John and daughter Andrea. M weeded for a couple of hours and got himself all stove up. E had to go for her walk alone, so she was able to go for a long one through the OSU campus with all the magnificent old rhododendrons. Their flowers are out now and it’s amazing to see towers of blossoms climbing up to the third story of some older buildings. In the evening we watched Call the Midwife and forewent the Turkish soap.

Wednesday, April 22

Statewide: 78 deaths, 2,059 cases out of (not available) tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +57)

As we have all heard by now, Sweden’s anti-pandemic measures have been very different from those imposed in the U.S. and in most of Europe. Gatherings of more than 500 people have been banned and universities are closed. High schools have also shut down, but schools for grades 1-9 have so far remained open. There seem to be few other restrictions. Swedes have freedom of movement and most businesses, including restaurants and bars, are open. Swedish authorities are focusing their quarantine efforts on known cases and high risk groups while leaving lower risk people alone. Will the result be a horrible disaster or will this approach be vindicated? The world waits with bated breath. It’s early yet, but so far Sweden is doing okay.

Taiwan has also kept schools and businesses open. As of April 23 they have reported only 6 deaths and only 427 confirmed cases. If that’s true, they are doing very much better than okay. Instead of a lockdown the Taiwanese acted early and decisively in the areas of international travel restrictions, lots of testing, and intensive tracking of known cases. It helped that they had a robust national health care system to facilitate this. Also helpful was the fact that Taiwan is an island, which makes it relatively easy to control and monitor travel into the country.

Meanwhile, back in the U.S., we hear that gun sales are way up and that shortages of ammunition have appeared. Gun shop owners report that customers have been buying their favorite ammunition by the case. (Depending on the calibre and the manufacturer, a case of ammunition contains between 500 and 2,500 bullets.) It turns out that there aren’t enough bullets around for everybody to be able to buy in that kind of volume, so they’ve had to put limits on how many cases you can buy at one time. Well, that’s a little worrisome. It means that latecomers are going to have to get by with far fewer rounds. The good news is that shooters who are good enough shots will still have the capacity to kill many dozens of their fellow citizens. That will help.

Thursday, April 23

Statewide: 83 deaths, 2,127 cases out of 43,976 tested  (Deaths: +5) (Cases: +68)

Friday, April 24

Statewide: 86 deaths, 2,177 cases out of 45,492 tested  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +50)

As of April 18, total COVID deaths in the U.S. were 24,555. That’s a rate of .07 per thousand, which is roughly equivalent to one death for every 14,000 Americans. If we assume that the pandemic is half over, we can expect the final toll to be one out of every 7,000 Americans. If we assume that the pandemic is only one third over, it would be one in 5,000. If the pandemic is now only one fourth over, it would be about one in 3,500. Also as of 4/18, roughly 93% of deaths have occurred in people age 55 and older. 

Saturday, April 25

Statewide: 87 deaths, 2,253 cases out of 47,377 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +76)

Made excursions today to Trader Joe’s–for apricots, avocados and champagne–and to the liquor store–for tonic and gin. M went early in the day and found conditions uncrowded with no noticeable shortages. The liquor store has protective barriers at the checkout counter and is also enforcing a policy of only five customers in the shop at any one time. Annoyingly, though, they are still using an antiquated credit card system that requires one to pick up a pen and sign a piece of paper. 

Lovely weather in the afternoon. E did weeding, especially in the area near the window from which we usually view our back garden, which was looking a little shaggy. M mowed lawn and spread some mulch. At dinner, M and E noticed a man stopping in front of our house to look at E’s little corner plot and then pulling out his phone to take a picture of it. As it happens, E got some of her ideas for making the plot by doing the same thing–taking pictures of plants and arrangements that she admired while out walking. So the beat goes on. After dinner we went to the store and got cake, by golly.

Sunday, April 26

Statewide: 91 deaths, 2,311 cases out of 48,964 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +58)

Sunday night we watched Call the Midwife, which is always sweet, compassionate and positive. But that view of the world was shattered when we followed it with some of our Turkish soap opera and got terrible news. Elif is in jail! And even Sami is powerless to help her! Ömer is losing control and keeps trying to pick fights with anyone handy, even though his bullet wounds are not healing properly and he could well lose the use of his left arm permanently if he does not take better care of himself. Nilüfer, Elif’s younger sister, is still agonizing about Fatih, the psychotic with the mesmerizing eyes, with whom she fell in love after he kidnapped her and held her captive for weeks as part of an extortion plot, and who earned her love by renting movies for her to watch, providing her with popcorn, and violently delivering her from the lecherous intentions of one of the henchmen who were guarding her. She now realizes how awful he is and she’s trying to stay away from him…even though she still loves him and is actually married to him in some kind of quasi-legal Turkish way. 

Elif also has an older sister, Aslı, who has always had mental issues and who has recently lost both her husband and her mother. Aslı has been better lately, though, and has been so looking forward to a baby on the way. But in fact she is not really pregnant because her mother bribed a doctor friend to sedate her and give her an abortion. Aslı does not remember this, but Elif has known about it for a while and just before she is arrested and taken off to jail she finally manages to tell Aslı the truth. Or at least part of the truth…in fact Elif also knows something else that Aslı does not remember, which is that right after the abortion Aslı found out what her mother had done. She confronted her mother, they fought, and Aslı gave her mother a shove which caused her to fall and hit her head on a piece of marble, which was, of course, the reason that the girls’ mother so recently passed away. A few months before that, the girls’ father also died, shot and killed by persons unknown… 

And those are just the issues on one side of this grand romance. Maybe we can get to Ömer’s side another day. Black Money Love is the title, which in Turkish is Kara Para Aşk. It’s on Netflix, in Turkish with English subtitles. There are 164 stylish but slow moving episodes, 45 minutes each. We’re at episode 76, I believe, which is a really depressing one. How will they ever get out of this?

Wednesday, April 15 

Statewide: 58 deaths, 1,663 cases out of 33,351 tested  (Deaths: +0) (Cases: +0)

FaceTime tertulia at 9:00 with J and R. They’re fine, enjoying the birds at their feeders on their deck. E took a long walk and worked many hours in the garden. M was outside a bit, but is now trying to go into more of a resting phase. He did finish rereading  Beautiful Losers, a Leonard Cohen novel. Pretty wild, exhausting really. This novel is the source of the song/poem ‘Magic is Afoot’ that is included on my old Buffy St. Marie album. That, at least, is a wonderful piece of work.

Pam Popper is on about over-reporting again. Says there’s a doctor in Michigan or somewhere who was required to list COVID19 on the death certificate of a man who tested positive and who was then struck and killed by a bus. Hmm. Don’t know if it’s really true, but it’s a good story. In general, there seems to be much more awareness now that counting COVID19 deaths and cases is complex and that the process is stubbornly imperfect. Pundits are even wondering “Is it possible that the Chinese deliberately underreported their death numbers?” Oh golly!

Thursday, April 16

Statewide: 64 deaths, 1736 cases out of 34,938 tested  (Deaths: +6) (Cases: +73)

Another quiet day. Some garden work and E had an exercise class via Zoom. Besides playing video games and watching YouTube, M attacked the Xfinity/Comcast monster and tried to get a lower rate for our internet service. He thinks he has achieved a reduction but only, of course, for the next 12 months.

Friday, April 17

Statewide: 70 deaths, 1,785 cases out of 36,321 tested  (Deaths: +6) (Cases: +122)

Grocery shopping in the morning at M of C during senior hours (7-8 a.m.) Very much the wrong time to go! Too crowded. 8:00 or 9:00 would be better. Got what we needed, though, so can’t complain too much. The shopping itself is one thing; once we arrive home the decontamination process is another major nuisance. But the meals are pretty good around here. The dinner was built around M’s chicken curry and E’s raita featuring fresh mint from the backyard. Yum.

J and R biked down to see us, delivering a book that E wants to read and staying for a while to chat in the back yard at a suitable distance. We talked about how nice it would be to have a test that confirmed that one had had the disease. One of their sons is in the medical field and he has been almost hoping to get the virus–most people’s symptoms are minor–because once he recovered he could continue his work without concern for himself or for others.

An OSU group is planning to do random testing of 1,000 Corvallis residents to try and find out how many cases there really are and especially how many individuals are infected without showing symptoms. Sounds like a plan. 

Saturday, April 18

Statewide: 72 deaths, 1,844 cases out of 37,583 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +59)

Justin Lessler, a professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, was interviewed by the New Yorker. In response to a question about how we might be able to determine how many asymptomatic cases there really are, Lessler replied: 

“Asymptomatic” is a squirrely concept and what we really mean here is “not detected and likely not detectable.” If you look at the shape of the epidemic curves, it is hard to explain them if children are not contributing to transmission at all, and if asymptomatic younger people are not contributing to transmission at all.

So eventually we’ll be able to infer something about what percentage of young people are/were carriers, but we will most likely never know whether any one individual young person is/was a carrier or not. Okay, fine. But also, yes, squirrely is the word. I wonder how the group planning the random testing in Corvallis sees the detectability issue. 

The news from China yesterday was that the Wuhan area death toll has been adjusted upward by about 1,300. Keeping in mind that neither the old number nor the new number is necessarily  accurate, this is still interesting. On the one hand, China is seeking here to boost its credibility, which is in tatters. On the other, it could be taken as an admission that the accurate numbers have been difficult to come by, probably partly due to inherent counting difficulties and partly due to heavy massage at various levels. Thus the announcement serves as a warning to their friends not to take any of their public statistics too seriously.

Sunday, April 19

Statewide: 74 deaths, 1,910 cases out of 39,038 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +66

We’ve just heard from a friend in Spain who gave us some insight about what conditions are like in the Madrid area. L and her husband have food delivered to their garage by their son. They are allowed to leave their house only twice a day and only for the purpose of walking their dog. These walks must be limited in duration and not take them more than 200 yards from their home. The fine for violating the restrictions is 600 euros. The government has just recently relaxed the general lockdown orders so as to allow parents to take young children outside for a short period each day, provided that they wear masks and gloves and respect social distances. This relaxation, however, is controversial with many believing that it is premature. L’s son is a Madrid firefighter and first responder. Needless to say, he would much rather be fighting fires than performing some of the tasks that he has faced during this crisis. L also reports that the world of politics is very much business as usual. Many politicians seem much more concerned with scoring points as opposed to actually working to solve common problems. That sounds familiar.

E and M no longer have a dog, but they still leave the house almost every day for short periods. Some public walking trails are open, but we avoid these as we hear that they are very crowded. Often we just walk around our neighborhood, but sometimes we drive to some other neighborhood and walk around there for a while before driving back home. The spring blossoms are in their glory and on many residential streets we can find lovely front gardens to admire. We don’t wear our masks on these walks. We see a few other walkers and those few are easy to avoid. Of those other walkers that we do see, perhaps a third are wearing masks; the majority are not. 

At other times we go out into situations that require interaction with other people. Our big four in this category have been plant nurseries, Home Depot, grocery stores and take-out restaurants. We tend to wear masks in these cases. The nurseries are the least stressful, as they are spacious and uncrowded, with traffic flow systems that have been adapted for the crisis. We get a sterilized cart as we enter and then wander about picking out what we need. We deliver the cart to a check-out station and then retreat behind a roped barrier. The checker comes out and scans our items without touching either cart or plants. The checker then retreats and we re-enter the checkout area to put our credit card into the reader. The reader is set to require no signature and no tapping on any screen–just insert and retrieve. The checker asks if we want a receipt, which we do not. We then take the cart to our car, unload it, and return it to the unsafe cart area where it is re-sterilized before being moved to the safe cart area. Some employees wear masks and some to do not. About 80% of the customers wear masks. The 20% who do not are almost always younger people. There is never any need to come closer than six feet to anyone.

Home Depot is similar in that there is lots of room, but often there are also a lot more people. But HD managers have closed down all but one entrance and staff close that off as well whenever the number of customers inside reaches a certain limit. It stays closed until the store begins to clear. Most people use self-checkout and one downside is that the process requires several taps on a touchscreen, but sterilizing wipes are available at each station. M wears a mask to go to HD, but he is definitely in the minority. Because HD sells bulky items, their self-checkout stations are already widely separated. This contrasts with some grocery stores where the stations are very close together. Pam Popper mentions this as one of the insanities of grocery shopping in Ohio. Maybe just turn off every other station? 

Grocery stores are the most difficult for us also. In some stores most people are wearing masks; in others most people are not. Some stores have very narrow aisles and, as far as we know, none are controlled for numbers of customers allowed in at one time. We always wear masks and have noticed that at least in our favorite store most other customers also wear them. Some staff are masked; some are not. In many stores, a large plastic window now separates the checker from the customer. Credit card readers do not require signatures or screen taps. M is chagrined because he wants to use ApplePay, but face recognition fails if he is wearing a mask! How is that fair? In general, M finds that wearing a mask creates more personal stress than it removes.

Maintaining distance from other shoppers is usually possible but requires effort and attention. Our friend Mrs H reports that her favorite grocery now has one-way aisles. Sounds sensible. The pace of things is inevitably slow however. You know how irritating it is when you want to get a cucumber and you can’t because the person standing in front of the cucumbers is taking a ridiculous amount of time trying to pick one? It’s much worse now because not only can you not access the cucumbers, you can’t access anything anywhere within 6 feet of the cucumbers! Also, grocery shopping is now more expensive. In normal life, we shop at several different stores, mainly because we know which items are cheaper at which places. Lately, though, we have been paying full price at the expensive store for the sake of convenience and safety. 

For take-out food, we either call or order online, pre-paying by card in each case and including a large tip. We usually pick-up rather than having the order delivered. The best restaurants tell you to call when you arrive in the parking lot so that one of them can bring your order out to your car. But some still expect you to come inside and wait there along with some number of other customers. We will be avoiding this latter type. The hassle with take-out is that we have to assume that the outside of the container may be contaminated. That can be dealt with, but it’s work.

We filled the car with gas today. M did not wear a mask while pumping but noticed that the two other people getting gas were wearing them. And they were both younger than he! Will wonders never cease. M did wash his hands after, or so he claims.

Monday, April 20

Statewide: 75 deaths, 1,956 cases out of 40,045 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +46)

Thankfully, the number of COVID deaths in Oregon remains fairly low. We feel fortunate–at least so far. To see how fortunate we are, we could try to figure out how Oregon is doing compared to other regions. We see a lot of “death rate” numbers in the media. But these numbers are peculiar. Most of the time, it appears that these numbers are derived by dividing the number of deaths in an area by the number of confirmed cases in an area. If we did this for Oregon, using the numbers above, we would divide 75 by 1,956, giving a result of 3.83%. Also by this method the ‘death rate’ for Italy now approaches 10%. But if we want to know how severe this pandemic is, the confirmed case number is not what we want. That number depends on how many tests have been done and is influenced by the fact that most of those tested are from the most high risk groups: older people and health care workers. This is as it should be, but it means that the numbers cannot be used even to estimate the total number of actual infections, which is really what we need to know. 

Two basic question that we might ask are these: How widespread is this disease? If I get the virus, how likely am I to die? If we knew the answers, we could make a decision about how much we should be worried and what level of emergency restrictions seem justified. Unfortunately these questions are not answerable at this point and possibly never will be answered with certainty. (Researchers will be able to estimate the total number of infections and lots of smart people are attempting to do that even now. But at least for the moment, the various estimates are wildly inconsistent.) What it comes down to is that if anyone tries to tell you exactly how dangerous this virus is by comparing confirmed cases to deaths, that person is confused. 

So if we can’t know what percentage of infections are fatal because we don’t know how many infections there are, is there anything we can know for sure? Well, one thing we can do is compare the cumulative number of deaths in an area with the total population of that area. That, after all, is the bottom line. For Oregon, as of April 20, that would be 75 deaths divided by 4,301,000 total population. For New York City it would be 10,367 deaths divided by 8,398,000 total population. For Italy it would be 24,648 deaths divided by 60,462,000 total population. Here are those results, expressed as percentages:

Oregon .00174%         

NYC .12344%

Italy .04076%

These numbers are a little easier to understand if they are restated in terms of deaths per one thousand inhabitants:

Oregon   .0174

NYC 1.2344

Italy   .4076

These numbers are accurate as of April 20. As the cumulative death toll rises, the numbers above will also rise. Daring to peer into the future, it seems possible that all these numbers will double or triple before we’re finally done. If all the numbers above were to simply triple, the virus would end up killing roughly 4 out of every 1,000 people in New York, roughly 1.2 out of every 1,000 people in Italy and roughly 1 out of every 2,000 people in Oregon.

Tuesday, April 21

Statewide: 78 deaths, 2,002 cases out of 41,128 tested  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +46) With three new deaths reported, the Oregon death rate as calculated by the total population method rises from .0174 per thousand to .0181 per thousand. 

The media today are reporting a study that indicates that 95% of COVID deaths are associated with underlying (pre-existing) medical conditions. Of course this fans the flames of those who believe that general lock-downs do more harm than good and that we should instead be focusing all our efforts on those we know are most vulnerable–whatever that might mean. 

Meanwhile, Michael has managed to make four jars of pickled vegetables: his favorite mix of cucumbers, bell peppers, hot peppers, green beans, and carrots. A crisis arose when in the midst of the process he discovered that the beautiful organic carrots that he had plucked from the bin in the grocery store had somehow never made it into the vegetable bin of our refrigerator. Nor could he find them anywhere in the house, garage or car. He had to run back to the store and try again, not something you want to be doing in times like these! Another unsolved mystery from the year of the virus…

Saturday, February 29

E attends a fundraiser in Portland, stays overnight there and returns to Corvallis on Sunday.

Wednesday March 4

E and M have their weekly breakfast meet-up with their friends J and R. Everyone seems fine.

Friday, March 6

E visits Urgent Care at the Corvallis Clinic. She’s had a sore throat and is generally feeling rotten. She’s worried she might have the virus. She thinks she may have caught it from someone at the fundraiser. The doctor tells her that he can see a canker sore on the back of her throat and that she does not have the virus. He gives her a prescription for some gel she is supposed to use to coat her throat–but she can’t figure out how to make it work. She takes Ibuprofen, which works fine.

Tuesday, March 10

E and M leave for a long-planned one-week trip to Death Valley. This seems a bit risky, but they figure they can sneak it in before things get too bad. E still has a sore throat, but it seems to be abating. At around this time, she feels good enough that she stops taking the Ibuprofen. 

Thursday, March 12

Eve now feels fine, no sore throat. She goes on a seven-mile hike. 

Monday, March 16

On their way home from Death Valley, M and E stop for the night in Susanville, CA. They try to have dinner at a brew-pub they’ve heard of but find out that all bars have been ordered to close. The have dinner at a pizza place instead. 

Tuesday, March 17

In the morning M and E find out that four inches of snow has fallen overnight and snow is still falling. They also learn that all restaurants have been ordered to close. They are able to get a take-out breakfast, and then head north through the snow toward Oregon and home. At about three in the afternoon, M mentions that he has kind of a raw throat.

Wednesday, March 18

Home in Corvallis, M and E have a “virtual tertulia” via FaceTime with their friends J and R,  who report that they both have “colds” but are basically fine.

Wednesday, March 18 to Monday, March 23

M continues to have a mild to moderate sore throat. At one point he seems to have a mild fever and takes an ibuprofen. But mostly he feels fine. Though somewhat less energetic than usual, he feels good enough to continue working in the garden and going on exercise walks. It seems possible, even probable, that whatever caused E’s sore throat also caused M’s sore throat. It’s not clear where E caught it, but seems likely that M caught it from E. But what was/is it?

Tuesday, March 24

M’s throat is worse today, and his sinuses are stuffed up. No runny nose, no cough, no fever. Oregon Governor Brown has imposed mandatory closures on a number of business types, mostly places that involve concentrations of people or places where six-foot separation is not feasible: gyms, bars, party venues, barbershops, nail and hair salons, theaters, arcades, aquariums, museums, etc. Day care operations must be limited to no more than 10 children and must give priority to parents who are health care workers or first responders. M and E were happy to see that there was no blanket shutdown. Hardware stores, nurseries, craft stores, gas stations, take-out restaurants, and may other businesses are still allowed to be open. Jewelry stores must be closed, but are allowed to deliver items curbside. E and M are pleased that plant nurseries will be open. 

M checks in with Pamela Popper, an Ohio doctor and YouTuber who is a fierce critic of the medical establishment. Today she doubles down on her take about COVID19, which is that the whole thing is overblown by people who want us to be as fearful as possible so that they can get as much of our money as possible. And she is suspicious of China. She is especially suspicious that China now seems to be past the crisis and on the mend. She suggests that maybe the Chinese released the virus on purpose to weaken us. 

Well, I’m on board with the idea that this ‘pandemic’ is a bonanza for the U.S. medical businesses, who have again and again shown themselves to be greedy and amoral. But it’s more than that. None of their manipulations would work on us if we weren’t already afraid. Fear is a cultural illness and our culture has had it for many years now. It weakens us, and as we weaken, the predators among us rejoice. 

As for the China thing, I don’t know. Why wouldn’t China, who was hit first, also be the first place to begin to get past it? Is this really a surprise? China is a modern, rich, authoritarian state whose citizens do what they are told–seemingly a recipe for success in surmounting any epidemic. And if we’re going to be paranoid, does no one stop to think that we only have their word for it that China has even passed the crisis? The number of people who seem to casually accept the official Chinese numbers is mind-boggling. As for them attacking us on purpose somehow…well I don’t know. It’s not impossible. But this sounds like a desperate search for a simple answer to a complex question. Not very helpful.

Wednesday, March 25

Statewide in Oregon, the numbers are 210 confirmed cases and a total of 8 deaths. No deaths of young people.

M is somewhat better, throat a little less sore, sinuses less stuffy. E and M are planning to attend a virtual cocktail party on Thursday via Zoom. E is doing a Zoom yoga class this morning. 

Also on the docket for today is a visit to the grocery store. We want to minimize the number of trips to the store, so the pressure is on to not forget anything. Stores are scheduling special shopping hours for seniors, but we’re not sure how much that helps. At Market of Choice it’s 7 to 8 in the morning on Fridays. Hmm. We’ll probably try early afternoon today instead. The question is where to go. We have got in the habit of visiting several different stores to get various items. That seems like an unnecessary luxury now. We’ll have to pick one. In the news we see that some grocery stores are hanging ‘sneeze barriers’ between checkers and customers. A few days ago we saw such barriers already installed at a liquor store. 

All nearby outdoor recreation areas were so crowded over the weekend that six-foot separation was impossible. All state and university forests have therefore been closed. We wonder about the national forests, but no hiking for M anyway at this point.

Thursday, March 26

Statewide: 257 cases and 10 total deaths. (Deaths: +2) (Cases +47)  Everyone counts case numbers, which is a little odd since that number is a function of test availability and testing priority and may have little relation to actual number of infections. Still, it’s a number.

M continues to have a mild sore throat, no other symptoms. Two virtual social sessions today, one with J and R in the morning via FaceTime, another with J and B for cocktails via Zoom. E went grocery shopping at Winco at around 2:00 pm. Very crowded. Six feet of separation impossible with no one seeming much concerned. Very unpleasant and seemingly quite dangerous. E cut shopping short and left. Will try a different store or perhaps a different time. We discovered that the Patissier is operating a weekly takeout service, order by Thursday noon, pick up from 10 to 12 on Friday. E ordered us four pain au chocolat.

Friday, March 27

Statewide: 11 total deaths, 316 cases of 7,269 tested. (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +59)

E did a Zoom-mediated yoga class from upstate New York taught by her old friend Suzanne. Had a few network problems but all in all it went well. Minor crisis later as E tried to weasel out of going to pick up the pastries. After discussion, it was decided that yes it would be safe–or at least worth the very, very low risk–to walk over the bakery and interact just enough to make the transfer. $12.80 cash only and E forewent the two dimes in change. The protocol for bringing them in was for E to come in the house, dump the pastries onto a clean plate and then discard the bag they came in, then wash her hands, then place the pastries in clean containers to be stored. Stored? What is stored? M’s protocol was to eat one as soon as decently possible. 

Saturday, March 28

Statewide: 12 total deaths, 414 cases  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +98)

M seems somewhat improved, almost symptom free. (Says that when he wakes up at 3:00 in the morning, he feels great, but then not quite so great in the daytime.) He is still self-isolating, which left E to do some shopping. She went to Market of Choice and had a much better experience there than at Winco. Huge difference in spacing, with fewer customers, almost all of whom were careful to keep the recommended 6 feet of separation. (Yes, we do live in a class delineated society. You don’t have to be super rich to shop at MofC, but you can’t be poor.) E spent close to $100, but got quite a lot of what we had decided that we needed/wanted. Good selection of veg/fruit, both fresh and frozen. No Kleenex, though, and no Clorox or any other household disinfectants. 

The plan for dinner was take-out. But from whom? We first tried Koriander. At some point they had announced that they would be open for take-out, but today they did not answer their phone. We next tried Evergreen. M made an order on-line and cooked rice while E picked it up. E reported a very unpleasant pickup experience. The order wasn’t ready when scheduled and she was expected to sit around in the restaurant with many other customers who were in the same boat. In the end the food was good and all was well except that the orders included rice. Now have plenty of rice. (Also plenty of uncooked rice, about five pounds. We could live on that for a long time.)     

Sunday, March 29

Statewide: 13 total deaths, 479 cases of 19,172 tested.  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +65) *Case and testing data as printed in the Gazette-Times, which is not consistent with the Oregon Health Authority.

The paper today says that Novak’s is open! They’re way over in Albany, but never mind that. We will definitely give them a try for take-out. M continues to have very mild sore throat.

Monday, March 30

Statewide: 16 total deaths, 606 cases of 12,883 tested.  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +58) **Case and testing data for today and following are from OHA web site. 

Tuesday, March 31

Statewide: 18 total deaths, 690 cases of 13,826 tested.  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +84)

Went for a walk today on the OSU campus, saw the cactus behind Withycombe. Beautiful. Later, E braved the Corvallis downtown to buy us a box of chocolates from Burst’s and a new jigsaw puzzle from Grass Roots Books. But now we’re afraid to touch either one. Hmm. 

Wednesday, April 1

Statewide: 19 deaths, 736 cases of 14,868 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +46)

Did a FaceTime call with J and R this morning. The younger generation of their family are all working, three from home, one still at the workplace.

Visited Garland Nursery in a moderate rain. Got a ninebark for along the east fence next to the clematis and a replacement tree for Hummock #1. E got a couple of hens and chicks for the bed just outside our viewing window. M later went to Bi-Mart for some planting mix. While there he checked the toilet paper aisle. Zilch. Still some paper towels though, and also a new shipment of bleach. 

Around 3:30 in the afternoon the sun came out and M went out and planted. Very squishy out there. E is sorting old scrap books. Next up, it’s take-out dinner day. Since Wednesday is E’s day to cook, she chooses the source.

Thursday, April 2

Statewide: 21 total deaths, 826 cases of 16,085 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +90)

Grocery shopping today at the Co-op. Not the best place under these conditions because of the narrow aisles, but not too crowded at 9:30 on a Thursday. Got what we needed, including a pound of hamburger produced in Philomath! Yo. Finally broke into the box of Burst’s chocolates. Nice. Long walk around the neighborhood, up Garryanna and down Forest Green or whatever. Found the short cut that Kathleen told E about the other day. 

Friday, April 3

Statewide: 22 total deaths, 899 cases of 17,434 tested  (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +73)

Both deaths and cases continue to increase steadily–but not exponentially. Early days?

E walked over to Helen’s house and sat on her back patio while Helen stayed in behind the sliding door and they talked to each other by cell phone. Must have been okay as they talked for about an hour. M went out in the blue car through Philomath to Eddyville, then back via Summit. Take-out dinner from El Palenque. All public transactions are weird and stressful, but people are mostly pleasant. E also did two exercise classes today. Suddenly everyone is offering Zoom mediated fitness classes. Some start out free as everyone tries to get the hang of it, then change over to fee-based, which is sensible. Busy day for E as she also made a short video to send to Elisa to be used for Margy’s upcoming virtual birthday celebration.

Saturday, April 4

Statewide: 26 total deaths, 999 cases of 18,925 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +100)

Are the curves steepening a little?

Walked in the MLK Park area, into some of the new luxury housing there, then into the older new stuff on Maser on the other side of Walnut. Then gardening and later M made a quick visit to Market of Choice. Moderately busy, but well-organized. Got some rhubarb to supplement our homegrown supply. Pie is on the menu for tomorrow! E did some sewing. At dinner, a minor crisis: no relish for our hot dogs! The people who stock our larder are slippin’. Later, the plan is for puzzle work followed by an episode of Kara Para Ask (Black Money Love). Finished the new puzzle. Beautiful.

Sunday, April 5

Statewide: 27 total deaths, 1,068 cases of 20,624 tested (Deaths: +1) (Cases: +69)

Curve not steepening.

Walked around the neighborhood south of us on the other side of Circle. Worked a little in the yard. Nice warm sunny afternoon. E picked rhubarb and is at the moment in the process of making a pie. The plan is for a light supper, then pie and TV. 

Monday, April 6

Statewide: 29 total deaths, 1,132 cases out of 21,801 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +64)

Last night’s pie was fantastic. Yum. Delivered some to Bobbye and Blair. Watched Call the Midwife and Kara Para. In the latter, Elif and Ömer spent the night together! Whoa! Thought that might not happen for another couple dozen episodes. Today is cleaning day. Like last time, M cleaned his bathroom and did dusting and vacuuming. E did her bathroom and kitchen, including scrubbing the kitchen floor. She said she was going to do the floor on her hands and knees–cuz that’s what Mrs. Hopper does–and she may well have done. But unfortunately there are no independent witnesses. M later went to Home Depot and found some filters that might possibly be useful in making masks. 

Tuesday, April 7

Statewide: 33 total deaths, 1,181 cases out of 23,007 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +49)  

Trip to the nursery today, got heather, ground cover and some shade shrubs for the back corner. M planted heather and made his neck sore. It makes him grouchy. He’s trying an ibuprofen. E made masks! The first pattern, made from on internet circulated message, gave the wearer a pig snout! Yikes. We don’t want to wear pig snouts. No one else is wearing pig snouts. E continues to experiment with different patterns and styles and already has done a couple of much better versions. Masks are an issue. As more and more people wear them, it will become odd not to. Well, it can’t hurt and helps as signal for people to keep their distance. Around town so far, masks are not the norm, but they are getting more common. Maybe 20-30% of people in the stores? Not sure. But numbers are growing.

M has been looking for statistics on flu deaths in previous years for comparison to this year. Very depressing. Statistics are not nearly as simple as they would have us believe (with they being greedy drug companies on the one hand, and well-meaning vaccine advocates on the other.) It turns out that accurate counts are difficult to make, difficult to collect, and subject to manipulation by people who have agendas. 

Counting flu deaths may sound simple, but it isn’t. First, what exactly is being counted? What is a flu death? In many cases of “flu deaths” doctors don’t actually just write “flu” on the death certificate and call it good. Instead, the doctor will write something like “cold and flu symptoms followed by pneumonia” “complications resulting from flu-like infection” or “heart failure after contracting flu” or “severe flu symptoms with weakened immune system” and many, many others. Plus, only a certain percentage of people who die of “the flu” are actually tested for flu. So even if the death certificates contains the word ‘flu’ no one knows whether the flu was proven or merely presumed. What is one to do with such data? We know that a person died, and we know that the person had flu-like symptoms and then developed pneumonia and died. But is that a flu death or a pneumonia death? If a person is already seriously ill and expected to die and then gets the flu and dies sooner, which illness is the crucial one? Hard to say. 

As it happens, the CDC has for many years issued guidelines about how to deal with this problem. Tacitly acknowledging that ‘death from flu’ is a very difficult thing to classify, they have stopped reporting that particular statistic. Instead they report a different statistic: flu-related deaths. This sounds the same, but it isn’t. It is defined as any death from illness of whatever kind in any case where the patient showed flu symptoms within three weeks prior to dying. This is much more measurable, but it’s awfully fuzzy.

Ah, but this new statistic has some special advantages. It is a kind of estimate, but it is the highest possible estimate, which is just what most of the really interested parties want. Releasing the highest possible estimate will create the most concern (fear) among the general public. Hence it is the number that is most useful to those who are trying to convince people to take flu vaccines. The CDC, for whatever reason, has consistently issued these counts of flu-related deaths, knowing full well that the general public will assume that “flu-related” is the same as “killed by flu.” Going even further along that line, the CDC have regularly suggested that “under-reporting” means that the true number is probably much higher. (So get those shots!)

Are there similar reporting issues with COVID19 deaths? I would expect so. The race is on to develop a COVID19 vaccine. It’ll be a huge seller. Somebody will make a lot of money. And they’ll make more money the higher the count. This is not to say that COVID19 is not serious. Not at all. But the story is complex and we need to be aware that, just like medical grade masks, accurate information is in short supply.

Wednesday, April 8

Statewide: 38 total deaths, 1,239 cases out of 24,564 tested  (Deaths: +5) (Cases: +58)

Did FaceTime with J and R this morning. Their kids have forbidden them to go to the grocery store, so they have to place their orders and the kids deliver. Nice in a way, but complicated. What if you forget something? Kids probably don’t want to be making deliveries too often. E has ordered some pastries from the Patissier for Friday. Yum. M did some planting and mowed the lawn front and back. Before that, though, M and E started up Helen’s dead car by standing near it and poking around a little. Odd.

Thursday, April 9

Statewide: 44 total deaths, 1,321 cases out of 25,627 tested  (Deaths: +6) (Cases: +81)

Six new deaths reported today, the highest daily number so far.

M went to Home Depot (again!) without incident. E made a successful visit to Bi-Mart, but had a harrowing experience in the candy aisle. She waited until there was only one other person in the aisle and then entered from one end. She was about ten feet away from another woman, who, frustratingly enough was standing the in part where the best Easter candy was. E was browsing, basically just waiting for the other woman to be finished, when suddenly the woman sneezed. Yikes! Call 911! Well, maybe not. She was, after all wearing a mask, as was E. 

Pamela Popper continues to decry the hysteria and the overblown response. She thinks it was stupid to close schools and universities and that deaths from negative effects of the shutdown will far exceed lives saved by the shutdown. Look at alcohol sales, she cries, liquor stores and grocers report that sales are nearly double what they were last year during this season. All this extra drinking will cost thousands of lives! But wait a second. Do these extra retail sales really indicate increased overall consumption? Might there be another alcohol sales channel where there has been a correspondingly massive decline in consumption? I think there might. 

Friday, April 10

Statewide: 48 total deaths, 1,371 cases out of 27,224 tested  (Deaths: +4) (Cases: +50)

M made two grocery visits today, one to Market of Choice, one to Trader Joe’s, both during senior hours. No problems. Our process for sanitation of grocery items is functioning smoothly. More and more people are wearing masks these days, especially at TJ’s. M wants to start wearing one so as to fit in better. E has presented him with a new improved model with velco fasteners on the straps. (Elastic might be best, but elastic is in short supply!) E did online yoga with one of her favorite teachers; Helen was in the class. E and M both did garden work, E planting marigolds and M working on his Rube Goldberg drip irrigation system. 

Saturday, April 11

Statewide: 51 total deaths, 1,584 cases out of 28,638 tested  (Deaths: +3) (Cases: +76)

Take-out from Novak’s in Albany. First time in over a year for us to have any of their food. The chicken soup was pretty bad, the potatoes were so-so, everything else was wonderful. Quite a lot of traffic on a Saturday afternoon in Albany. We narrowly escaped an accident on the way home. A car started pulling out fast from a driveway on our left, but the driver finally noticed us and braked while M swerved away. Meanwhile our car insurance premiums are being cut by the company (Liberty Mutual) because since people are driving less there are far fewer accidents and therefore the company is making fewer payouts. And stimulus money arrives soon! We feel we must donate it somewhere. Have to sit down and figure out where.

Sunday, April 12

Easter Sunday and time to sample the chocolate eggs that E obtained from Bi-Mart despite a  sneezing fellow customer in the candy aisle. So we had a couple for breakfast. They’re not very good. Also no good music in the a.m. as Sunday Baroque was replaced by endless organ music. But Easter noontime dinner was wonderful: perfect soufflé, fresh asparagus, French champagne. And then, from the freezer, two servings of Barney’s Blackout cake from the Konditorei, saved since E’s birthday of so many weeks ago. Sublime!

Monday, April 13

Statewide: 53 total deaths, 1584 cases out of 31,121 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +0)

We masked up and went to Shonnard’s this morning for more plants and more irrigation supplies. No problems. Lunch at home, then later got take-out coffees from Coffee Culture on Ninth. Seemed to be just one person working at CC. Passed Starbucks earlier, the drive-through line looked to be about 10 cars long. After coffee, sat down to do some charitable giving: Linn Benton Foodshare, Stone Soup, and Benton Community Foundation. 

Tuesday, April 14

Statewide: 58 total deaths, 1,633 cases out of 32,363 tested  (Deaths: +2) (Cases: +49)

Much gardening. Beautiful sunny day. Our neighbors Scott and Jo have given us two very good looking peonies and M wanted to get those in the ground. E delivered S and J some iris in return. Then we worked on the new Shonnard’s plants: dianthus, heuchara, and sedum. Plus, M’s ragtag irrigation system is now complete–at least for the moment. Lunch was take-out from Taco Time.

In the afternoon M got absorbed in a lecture on YouTube. It’s a an hour-long talk by an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona named Michael Worobey. It dates from a few years back and describes his study of virus genomes to trace the origins of the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. Amazing stuff. Very good explanation of how a flu virus works, how antibodies work, how immunity works and what it means when a new flu virus variant appears. Provides an explanation for the tragic fact that the 1918 pandemic was more deadly for 20 to 29 year olds than it was for 80 year olds. Side notes include the strong possibility that human activity in World War 1 created the conditions for a particular flu variant to become pandemic and also a bit about the devastating equine flu pandemic of 1872, a year in which one third of urban Boston was destroyed by fire, partially due to the fact that no horses were available to pull the fire equipment. In YouTube, search for The Genesis of the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic.